Shocker: Democrat lead in US House race drops to only two points (the worm is turning Smithers)

Human Events ^ | 8/22/06 | Election Dog

[Richard Kimball]

We need to run like we're ten points behind. The Rats are going crazy, and if they get in, the first things they're going to do are:

1. Try and impeach Bush.
2. Pull out of Middle East (heck, we're still trying to clean up Carter's mess).
3. Bring back the fairness doctrine (shut down talk radio).
4. Try and get some kind of limit on political speech on the internet.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Now that is depressing. As of last week, I shifted my support from McBride to Admiral Collins. I figure if McBride got out and endorsed him and Collins picked up the bulk of the undecideds (there are a lot of FL Republicans who desperately want another option than you-know-who), he might actually take the nomination. I don't think he'd have the greatest shot at winning the general (I'd give him at least 45%, however, far above the 35% of the current leader), but it would at least spare us the embarrassment of KH's abomination of a candidacy and any ill-effects from it (harming Clay Shaw, whose House seat retention is of paramount importance).

[Torie]

I tend to think pro-Republican districts that have RINOs such as Kolbe place us often at greater jeopardy for losing the seat,

I have trouble thinking of a RINO who lost in a discernably pro GOP open district in the general election, in the relatively recent past, but maybe there are some. Of course, this year might be different. But I don't think Kolbe's district is that conservative on social issues overall; in fact I tend to think it is fairly moderate.

[Sam Spade]

On the list, the most surprising ones to me are: KY-04 (much more Dem than I think) and OH-01 (slightly more Dem than I think)

I also think that WY-AL should be in Toss-up/Lean Rep, but that is just based on hunches.

I assume that you noticed the SUSA poll today concerning WA-08. Seems to me to indicate a placement more in the realm of what Novak is suggesting.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d034d356-8299-4d08-9b88-5656013dfe35

[fieldmarshaldj]

That's quite a swing in the Garrett district (Bush only carried it by 7% in '00). Though both were at least trending more GOP. That's why I was saying that running a RINO (as the pundits were urging when Marge Roukema retired) is not necessarily the answer. Garrett proved quite able, and Graf might be just as capable (but he needs to drastically increase his fundraising -- if he still has the same amount of $$ he had nearly 2 months ago, he's won't even be competitive).

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'm sure I can think of a few seats, though I'm a bit tired and soon to head off to bed, but the Dennis Moore seat comes to mind (although that's not an open seat, of course). Another one, albeit not a GOP seat, but one that could prove competitive, Maine-2 in '02, when we put up a pro-abort RINO against a pro-life Dem (and lo and behold, the pro-life Dem won, despite claims by certain predictable groups that he was "out of touch"). Michaud might still have won against a Conservative GOPer, but we won't know for sure. Another one was Rick Lazio's NY-2nd district in 2000 when the GOP had the brilliant notion to run a very liberal Black lady for the seat, and she was obliterated in a 4-person contest.

[Torie]

There was a big swing in NJ to Bush 2004 versus Bush 2000. Bush ran below the partisan baseline in 2000 in NJ, way below, while AZ was more stable. In any event, Bush won the current AZ-8 by 2% in 2000, for what it is worth. So plus 8% in Garret's district and plus 4% in Kolbe's. Also I am sure AZ-8 has more Hispanics, although it does not include the Tuscon barrio, than Garret's district, and Bush ran very well with Hispanics in 2004, particularly in AZ (along with Texas), and almost certainly above partisan baseline.

[Torie]

Competence beyond ideology of course matters (Lazio's district perhaps), and in Moore's district, the Pubbies have tried "RINO's" and "conservatives," and both lose. That is why I don't think Huffman is the "solution" per se in Kolbe's district. He doesn't strike my as that effective. But I think he would have a substantially better chance than Graf. If Graf wins the primary, unless and until I see a creditable poll to the contrary, the seat will move to heavy lean Dem to weak Likely Dem in my mind.

[AntiGuv]

"They" are the Evans-Novak Political Report.

[Torie]

Thanks. The interplay was confusing to me. I did not know Novak was predicting individual races.

[AntiGuv]

I saw that Reichert poll and it goes much further than the CO-07 poll in making me think that the GOP is not in as great danger as widely thought. On another note altogether, it validates my downgrading that race (and PA-08) just yesterday.

[SmoothTalker]

These polls mean nothing unless our election system switches and we have nationwide elections instead of district by district elections. The Democrats could win more votes and end up with fewer seats. Heck they have polled more votes in the last three senate cycles and still have a ten vote defecit.

[Torie]

I think the GOP is gaining ground generically. The polls suggesting seem to match some of these individual races, but it may be regional (ie the GOP may still be in big trouble in the midwest and NE). In that regard, why did you downgrade the
Fitzgerald seat? That is PA-8 isn't it?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, in Graf's defense, he's not a neophyte. He has won election to the AZ House twice (and ended up as House Majority Whip just as quickly, not something to sneeze at), and despite being massively outspent, got 43% of the primary vote against Kolbe in '04. That's why I see him as similar to Scott Garrett. If he can be financially competitive with Giffords, I think he stands a good chance. As for Giffords, the worst thing that could happen if she wins the seat and the Dems capture Congress, that she will be toast in '08 -- against Graf.

[AntiGuv]

KY-04 is one of the more perplexing districts in my view. You recall that I thought rather little of its competitiveness for a long time; then there was that SUSA poll that put Lucas 10 points ahead; then a flurry of reports about how the GOP had written it off; and then suddenly a SUSA poll with Davis in the lead..

The only thing I will go out on a limb and predict is that Lucas will do worse on Election Day than he will be predicted to do..

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'd like to know how he's communicating with Rowland Evans. Might be the only political pundit to utilize seances to divine the outcome of House & Senate races. ;-)

[Torie]

Graf is articulate, and effective in expousing his views. The issue is, just how toxic are those views to the very many "RINO's" in his district? I should add that I watched the debate among the GOP primary contenders. That is why I am pontificating about this particular race in a very micro sense.

[crasher]

was there a new poll in PA-08?

[Torie]

The only thing I will go out on a limb and predict is that Lucas will do worse on Election Day than he will be predicted to do.

LOL.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I never heard that the GOP at any point was preparing to write off KY-4, especially given how Republican it is. I certainly thought that reports of Davis's weakness against Lucas were ludicrously overstated. I remember how the pundits and polls claimed that then-freshman Congressman Ernie Fletcher in KY-6 would be toast against Scotty Baesler trying to reclaim his old House seat in 2000, and it ended up an embarrassing blowout, as Baesler only got 35% compared to the 56% he got in '96 when he beat Fletcher the first time. I'm not saying Lucas will perform as badly, but it would not surprise me. There just is no logical reason to dump Davis.