[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, in Graf's defense, he's not a neophyte. He has won election to the AZ House twice (and ended up as House Majority Whip just as quickly, not something to sneeze at), and despite being massively outspent, got 43% of the primary vote against Kolbe in '04. That's why I see him as similar to Scott Garrett. If he can be financially competitive with Giffords, I think he stands a good chance. As for Giffords, the worst thing that could happen if she wins the seat and the Dems capture Congress, that she will be toast in '08 -- against Graf.

[Torie]

Graf is articulate, and effective in expousing his views. The issue is, just how toxic are those views to the very many "RINO's" in his district? I should add that I watched the debate among the GOP primary contenders. That is why I am pontificating about this particular race in a very micro sense.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"As for Giffords, the worst thing that could happen if she wins the seat and the Dems capture Congress, that she will be toast in '08 -- against Graf."

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I think Giffords is a strong candidate for the Democrats (she showed balls by resigning from the Senate last December in order to jump into the AZ-08 race), and would not be a pushover in 2008 if she won this year. But if Senate Majority Leader Timothy Bee (who is still in his 30s and whose Senate district lies wholly within the AZ-08) ran for the House seat in 2008, I think the GOP would win it fairly easily. Why didn't Bee run for the seat this year? Did early announcements by Graf and others convince him not to jump in?