KY-04 is one of the more perplexing districts in my view. You recall that I thought rather little of its competitiveness for a long time; then there was that SUSA poll that put Lucas 10 points ahead; then a flurry of reports about how the GOP had written it off; and then suddenly a SUSA poll with Davis in the lead..
The only thing I will go out on a limb and predict is that Lucas will do worse on Election Day than he will be predicted to do..
LOL.
I never heard that the GOP at any point was preparing to write off KY-4, especially given how Republican it is. I certainly thought that reports of Davis's weakness against Lucas were ludicrously overstated. I remember how the pundits and polls claimed that then-freshman Congressman Ernie Fletcher in KY-6 would be toast against Scotty Baesler trying to reclaim his old House seat in 2000, and it ended up an embarrassing blowout, as Baesler only got 35% compared to the 56% he got in '96 when he beat Fletcher the first time. I'm not saying Lucas will perform as badly, but it would not surprise me. There just is no logical reason to dump Davis.