[Torie]

Competence beyond ideology of course matters (Lazio's district perhaps), and in Moore's district, the Pubbies have tried "RINO's" and "conservatives," and both lose. That is why I don't think Huffman is the "solution" per se in Kolbe's district. He doesn't strike my as that effective. But I think he would have a substantially better chance than Graf. If Graf wins the primary, unless and until I see a creditable poll to the contrary, the seat will move to heavy lean Dem to weak Likely Dem in my mind.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, in Graf's defense, he's not a neophyte. He has won election to the AZ House twice (and ended up as House Majority Whip just as quickly, not something to sneeze at), and despite being massively outspent, got 43% of the primary vote against Kolbe in '04. That's why I see him as similar to Scott Garrett. If he can be financially competitive with Giffords, I think he stands a good chance. As for Giffords, the worst thing that could happen if she wins the seat and the Dems capture Congress, that she will be toast in '08 -- against Graf.