I think bush will get a 4 point bounce from his Browns camp appearance alone. :lol:
Thanks for this excellent post, Sam.
Maybe. I'm a political scientist, and I've seen lots of these things like this come and go. There might not even be a real trend under this data. I think Kerry is a strongish candidate, and this will be tight. But I'm predicting a Bush win. It'll be much easier if the Nader Left has another tandrum this time.
Repeat after me (near some democrats): "There is no difference between the parties. Spoil your vote. Vote Naderrrrrrr."
Last poll I heard was on FOX. It gave Kerry only a 2.8 bounce. Newsweek has always had a problem with their far left wing kook factor. My guess is it was closer to the 2. It's more Kerryesk.
The problem is the missing link. There's Kerry 35 years ago, and Kerry in 2004 (psychically, anyway. Mentally is questionable). There's nothing in between. Na da. Zilch. Where was he? Did he flee to Communist Red China?
Great to hear it. However, I'm not optimistic that Bush's bounce will be that great, either. This whole thing is still too close and too soon. We have no excuse to be too confident.
Plus, the W machine is ready to define Kerry IN HIS OWN WORDS. Plus humor, as in ridicule. Bunny suits, deer hunting on your belly, safron biker shorts, Kerry is TOAST!
Check out Sam's research.
Very interesting news. :-)
Dead 'Rat bounce?
Kerry will not win. Unfortunately, it will not be a rejection of leftist policies, per se -- the man is simply unattractive and not likeable. Swing voters are influenced by those sorts of factors, and boy, did the Dems pick a dud.
Historically, its a very small bump. But Zogby is insisting the electorate is already decided, and it's very hard to move anyone. I guess that will be proved or disproved by any bump Bush gets after the RNC convention.
They are always asking people who they will vote for, in these polls, but what about a strength of conviction type of poll? Do they have catagories like "Absolutely positive vote for Bush" or "probably Bush but not really sure?"
EXCELLENT post! I am sure the dems expected more in the way of a double-digit bounce.
I admit I didn't see a lot of the dem's convention, as I couldn't stand all the false patriotism and "I'm a Vietnam Hero" bull****, but from what I did see, the Senators Kedwards did not make their case. They tried to hit on all of the Republican strong points, and in my opinion, failed miserably.
If you're talking simply about "convention bounce" surely you are right. But there are other dynamics working that I think will make it closer than the "non-bounce" would make it seem.
We are seeing another "crude bounce" that is already threatening to choke off the economic recovery. Not that any of that is W's fault, but you know how the Dims will play it.
Note, I said closer, not close. The only thing that will make it close is if Osama bombs the Washington Monument in person, gets away, and says W double dog dared him to do it.
I hope you are right, of course, but just for the record, Hubert Humphrey came within a hair of winning in 1968.
It was like 43%-43% with George Wallace taking the rest.