[sonserae]

Even the leftist people I work with don't like Kerry but are going to vote for him anyway because they don't want Bush. Kerry is NOT a likeable guy. He is creepy in some weird way. I mean...is THIS the best they can do???

[Intolerant in NJ]

And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple...and that doesn't even include the debates, in which Bush should demolish Kerry - just wait 'til the blue bunny has to try to explain some of his anti-military, anti-security votes on stage with no place to hide.......

[Musket]

ABC Radio News just reported a 2 to 4 point bounce. Considering a 2 to 4 point margin of error, that comes out to exactly - um - let me see - yup, that's what I thought, NUTHIN'.

And that's exactly what they deserve.

[Quzar]

All i have to say is a Bush victory will be a big time lose to the liberals and they will be even more angry, maybe they will all move to Canada!


GOOOOOOOOOO BUSH!

[sheik yerbouty]

He was quite a loser before the convention.

[montag813]

These comments are deeply flawed. "Bounces" occur based directly on the percentage of undecided voters in the general electorate. In 1992, those were absolutely huge, plus the Perot leaving-the-race factor, which created unprecedented volatility, which Clinton shrewdly capitalized on. THIS YEAR the undecideds are tiny, historically so, and thus NEITHER candidate will gain more than a 5 pt bounce from their party's convention. This means nothing. This is a tight, static race which may or may not break hard in one direction by the last week in October.

One must look to other polls for solace, and her there is some troubling evidence that the media-creation known as the "Abu Ghraib Scandal" and various promotion of book-peddling liars by the media has taken a toll. In March, Bush led Kerry by 24 points in leadership vs. terror. Now that lead has shrunk to 5. They are tied in who would better handle Iraq. Not good at all, and indicative of where Bush & Co. will need to focus their fire in the next 3 months.

[twgiles]

The only significant figure is the ratio of bounce to the number of undecided voters.

If in past years 30% of the electorate was undecided and the bounce was 15%, that is equivalent to today if 8% of the electorate is undecided and the bounce is 4%.

Basically, since there are fewer undecided voters today, a smaller bounce can still be significant.

[DaGman]

A 4 point bounce is not surprising with only 6 - 8% of voters undecided. Bush will get about the same bounce. What the bounce numbers above fail to include is that there were a great many undecideds in each of those races. There are few undecideds this time so there are few that will be persuaded by each party's convention.

[lonevoice]

ping!

[hershey]

Several people have told me recently that they expect terrorists to set off car bombs or whatever in NY during the republican convention. They left Kerry alone because they'd prefer him to win. Now last night there's an alert that NY authorities had a credible terrorist threat. If, God forbid, the worst should happen, what will that do to the election? If it happens simultaneously as the convention goes on, it's not good for GW. If it happens elsewhere in the country between now and Nov., it's tragic and terrible, but not as damaging to GW's reelection...I think.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Great analysis, I agree with every word, and I would add that it takes Newsweak, the biggest rat-friendly poller out there, to get that 4 pt bounce for Kerry. No Zogby bounce, no discernable Rasmussen bounce, and no one else has come out with a poll yet.

[OldFriend]

All this looking back is very pre 9/11. Nothing can predict what the next few months will bring. We need to work hard, be vigilant, and pray!

[CDHart]

From your lips to God's ears.

Carolyn

[ride the whirlwind]

Good post, but I'm curious where the Clinton figure of 30% is from.

Gallup said this in 2000 -

July 26, 2000

Average Convention "Bounce" Since 1964 Is Six Points
Clinton set the record in 1992 with 16 points

Maybe this has something to do with it - Ken Mellman of The Hill said this on 7/14/04 - "Sometimes challengers get a big “convention” bounce because of events that have nothing to do with their party’s national convention. Going into the 1992 Democratic convention, Bill Clinton was running third and Ross Perot was in second place, garnering 30 percent of the vote.
During the convention, Perot dropped out, temporarily increasing Clinton’s margin by 28 points.
Clinton’s gain had less to do with the convention and lots to do with Perot, but Dowd gleefully uses that “swing” to boost his “convention bounce” calculation."

[joesbucks]

Given that some of the tighest races were in 68 and 76 when convention bounces were smallest for the losers based on your stats, we are in for a tight one.

I don't recall the Gore bounce in 00, but if I recall, it was small also. Remember, he won the popular vote, but lost electorially.

What I have found is we have become more partisan recently, more partisan than I can ever remember. Amd while there is the claim that the dems are only behind Kerry because they hate Bush so much, can't the same be said for Dole in 96 and GWB in 00 with regard to Clinton and Gore? Look at this board even now after the many Keyster and Buchananite purges. The common them among the Bushbot's is he can win so don't waste your vote on third party. The hate for liberals, dems and Kerry is just as strong as it is with those just mentioned groups toward conservatism, republicans and the President. One reason why I say this if I posited the scenario that had Gore been in office during the last 4 years and everything had gone exactly as President Bush has executed it, would they still be rallying around the President. The overwhelming response is no. Most believe a President Gore wouldn't have done as Bush, but during times of great duress, people do tend to rise to the occasion. Again, same events, same responses....get rid of the bum simply because the D next to his name. The hatred runs deep on both sides.

What Ia m starting to hear is from those who are non-partisan. They are saying that Kerry did ok. My wife has no political inclination. She wathced Kerry while on a visit to Ohio last weekend on C-Span. She liked what she saw and heard.

Another interesting factor is the conservative pundits. They are railing that the convention was not full of the liberal agenda and was pretty down the middle of the road. There was even some republican themes. Yet the whole response has been it wasn't liberal. What would they have said if the convention was full of the most leftist agenda that was ever put forth. Would the conservative pundits have been happy then.

Remember how upset we were when Clinton tirangulated in the mid 90's. We got what we wanted and were mad as hell he did it. Doesn't make sense to me.

[deport]

The bounce all said and done is determined by various factors of which the following two need to be compared with prior conventions. The percentage of committed/strong voters for each candidate and the percentage of undecides. I don't have the numbers but this time out Bush/Kerry have high numbers in the committed/strong area and the undecides are very small... Thus not much room to change unless you are going to change a committed/strong voter...

Convention Bounces
			Net Change
2000 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Gore -5	Bush +11
2000 Dem. Bounce	Gore +10	Bush -9	Gore +19
1996 Rep. Bounce	Dole +8	Clinton -7	Dole +15
1996 Dem. Bounce	Clinton +4	Dole -1	Clinton +5
1992 Dem. Bounce	Clinton +14	Bush -16	Clinton +30
1992 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Clinton -10	Bush +16
1988 Dem. Bounce	Dukakis +7	Bush -4	Dukakis +11
1988 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Dukakis -5	Bush +11
1984 Dem. Bounce	Mondale +9	Reagan -7	Mondale +16
1984 Rep. Bounce	Reagan +4	Mondale -4	Reagan +8
1980 Rep. Bounce	Reagan +8	Carter -5	Reagan +13
1980 Dem. Bounce	Carter +10	Reagan -7	Carter +17
1976 Dem. Bounce	Carter +9	Ford -7	Carter +16
1976 Rep. Bounce	Ford +4	Carter -3	Ford +7
1972 Dem. Bounce	McGovern 0	Nixon +3	McGovern -3
1972 Rep. Bounce	Nixon +7	McGovern -1	Nixon +8
1968 Rep. Bounce	Nixon +5	Humphrey -9	Nixon +14
1968 Dem. Bounce	Humphrey +2	Nixon -2	Humphrey +4

For consistency, these results are all among registered voters. 1992-2000 polls are from ABC News; 1968-88 polls are by Gallup. Earlier polls weren't done frequently enough to track the convention bounce reliably.

[1Old Pro]

Kerry's only bounce is when he throws out the first ball in a baseball game.

[Tribune7]

Yesterday there were reports of a negative bounce for Kerry.

[proud American in Canada]

Excellent analysis!

I've been thinking it will be a landslide. I just cannot see people going for Kerry even in a pre-9/11 world. We're at war and people won't change presidents during a war.

[ambrose]

..