[DameAutour]

Interesting post. One thing I would say, this convention received less media coverage than most, and that might be having an effect. It's possible to not even know there was a Democrat convention this past week, much less know what went on at the convention.

Unfortunately for Kerry, the convention was the last major media event for him.

Bush still has a convention, and it promises to be memorable with Arnold, Rudy and a bona fide Dem (Zell Miller) giving prime time speeches. And since he is President, Bush is naturally going to get more attention aside from the convention.

How is Kerry going to get back into the news? This election is now officially Bush's to lose, because Kerry should have won it this week. I was one of the people who said the Dem convention would pick up more voters, glad I was wrong.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

McGovern got 0 in 1972 according to bounce numbers I posted earlier (Gallup was the source, I believe)

He had 41 percent prior to Gov. Wallace (18 percent) being shot and he stayed flat (losing a point or two) while Nixon went on to win with over 60 percent if I remember correctly. (520 - 17 Electoral votes)

Every one of the elitist media employees, com-symps, leftists of all sorts, some yellow-dog Democrats, and assorted malcontents had made up their minds feeeeeeellings early to vote for McGovern. There was no one left to bounce.

Even though McGovern slipped to more than ten points behind by Oct. the mainstream media employees just knew he'd take the bigger states and win. They didn't know anyone who planned to vote for Nixon.

[rwfromkansas]

Please keep in mind that this is one of the most contested, heated races in a long time.

There are not that many undecideds to swing back and forth with a convention.

There is also the smallest coverage of the conventions ever.

Still, the bounce is pathetic it looks like.

[binger]

'ruporting' for duty!

[litany_of_lies]

I don't expect a big Bush bounce either, but expect Bush to build a bit of a lead going into the convention and pushing it perhaps to 4-6 points coming out. That would be huge.

I find the tune-out factor to be very large, and believe that in general only Dems watch their convention and only Republicans watch theirs. This explains why CNN was the ratings winner this week. GOP viewers of Fox said "Fine, Brit, Bill, Sean, and Greta, you do your duty, but I'm going to skip you this week."I wouldn't be surpised to see Fox triple CNN's viewership during the GOP convention when the Dems do the same thing to CNN (and what's left of MSNBC).

The disengaged don't care, and unlike 30 years ago, they've got 100 other things they can watch on TV. Even a Bill Clinton couldn't get more than a 10-point bounce in today's environment.

[TomServo]

Nicely done, Sam. And thanks for the ping, Howlin...

On another thread someone alluded to the ass-waxing Kerry was gonna experience come Nov. 2nd since it was only a 4-pointer...

[Salvation]

Too bad that Newsweek did not have your additional facts.

I keeep saying that by Monday Kerry will be down four or five points. (Maybe I a two weeks too early!)

[Howlin]

Information ping.

Sam has done some great research here; just what FR is about.

[DesertDreamer]

Bouncy ping! There are some pretty good images on this thread, too.

[GiveEmDubya]

While I conversely don't expect a huge Bush bounce, I am positive that the RNC will be a better convention. Overall, the atmosphere will be better (since all the guys and gals there are supporting their candidate rather than indirectly supporting him via hating the other guy). We will have better speakers and Bush will give a better, more positive speech.

Not to mention, the RNC will be a hell of a lot more fun to watch.

[Freesofar]

The rat lovers are pathetic,

Good stuff you guys ! I can't stop laughing !
I see a lot of sKerry bumper stickers here in liberal La La land, about one for every 1000 cars.

The photo of the war criminal and the trial schiester laughing it up is a classic

Bush got the last laugh in 2000
and he'll have the last laugh in 2004

I sure do love the sound of the last laugh going down

[Main Street]

[Waco]

But. but, but,,, Ho Chi Ming praised him as a hero!

[doug from upland]

Sam, pretty good analysis, but there is a missing ingredient. I don't believe there was a previous election in which the voters were this polarized. There is a very small number of uncommitted.

That having been said, I wrote a piece about three months ago regarding the GOP convention in late August/early September. New York City, September, just before the anniversary of 9-11. The patriotism will be flowing. I expect a bump from those who are uncommitted that will carry the President to November.

[sweetliberty]

I just love good news.

[Iam1ru1-2]

The softspoken, humble, quiet, and demure demonrats at the podium: (Click link below to see them in action)

http://kerry-04.com/wildeyed.php

[Shooter 2.5]

I think the country has changed since then. There are less undecided voters than ever before. I'm seeing kerry supporters running voter registration drives. There are more kerry stickers than the gore stickers from the last election. I believe it's going to be a very tough race and Bush may lose.

[Zechariah11]

I think that the undecided voter, the voter who places politics on a very casual plain, will judge Kerry/Edwards on less what they said than how they came across. With that in mind they seem to have tried a little too hard to be effervescent and ended up seeming very shallow.

Kerry's wife was a huge, pompous turn-off. She compares very unfavorably with Laura Bush.

[ableChair]

Yep, and the funny part of it is that the 4 point bounce is probably a gross exaggeration. Three other sources are suggesting a LOSS for Kerry. We'll know on Monday.

[FourPeas]

Interesting.