Interesting post. One thing I would say, this convention received less media coverage than most, and that might be having an effect. It's possible to not even know there was a Democrat convention this past week, much less know what went on at the convention.
Unfortunately for Kerry, the convention was the last major media event for him.
Bush still has a convention, and it promises to be memorable with Arnold, Rudy and a bona fide Dem (Zell Miller) giving prime time speeches. And since he is President, Bush is naturally going to get more attention aside from the convention.
How is Kerry going to get back into the news? This election is now officially Bush's to lose, because Kerry should have won it this week. I was one of the people who said the Dem convention would pick up more voters, glad I was wrong.
But Kerry does better the less people see of him. No Kerry news means a bump in the polls for him since he turns people off by his waxen, arrogant demeanor.
> One thing I would say, this convention received less
> media coverage than most, ...
Probably on Clinton's orders, but anyway, I agree.
Even after we "hard" true post-convention polling results,
from credible (i.e. not obviously biased push-pollers),
there may be new ahistorical confounding factors, such as:
* record low viewership of the convention itself
* most people getting their info about it in the form of
echos (and the libs don't own the media now)
* shifting demographic of reachable voters to poll
* changes in voter behavior when polled
When I let a call get through, and it turns out to be a
poller, my inclination is to figured out who's really
calling and why. Giving them useful data is not a
consideration. Many people are even less polite.