Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time

[SamAdams76]

Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).

If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.

Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.

When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.

By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!

Here are the convention bounces of other losers...

Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points

Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.

So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.

[BriarBey]

boy, did the Dems pick a dud.


They picked a dud for a reason. Clintons OWN Kerry, he is merely a puppet, dems win this election and Hillary doesn't have a chance in 2008. Its a smoke screen and sham, Bush will win but only so she can have it next time around.

[Threepwood]

And?

[Boundless]

> One thing I would say, this convention received less
> media coverage than most, ...

Probably on Clinton's orders, but anyway, I agree.

Even after we "hard" true post-convention polling results,
from credible (i.e. not obviously biased push-pollers),
there may be new ahistorical confounding factors, such as:

* record low viewership of the convention itself

* most people getting their info about it in the form of
echos (and the libs don't own the media now)

* shifting demographic of reachable voters to poll

* changes in voter behavior when polled

When I let a call get through, and it turns out to be a
poller, my inclination is to figured out who's really
calling and why. Giving them useful data is not a
consideration. Many people are even less polite.

[concerned about politics]

My wife's a political scientist. She predicts a substantial Bush victory.

Only 1 in 4 Christians usually vote. Right now, there's a huge evangelical push to get out the vote for morality. If it pans out, Bush picks them up.
Also, the homosexuals will drive out the moms and dads who usually don't vote. That's another plus.
Then, the military personnel will be voting, and they're not being polled! The military is heavily Republican.

[jpf]

"I hope you are right, of course, but just for the record, Hubert Humphrey came within a hair of winning in 1968.
It was like 43%-43% with George Wallace taking the rest."

I think 68' was more like 39-38% for Nixon, Wallace got a ton of votes that year. Of course there were a lot more Dems than Republicans then.

[Mo1]

A 4 point bounce is really bad for Kerry

Which means they will go even more desperate

Hang onto your hat, because the Dems are going to get even nastier

[jps098]

Nixon got 43.5, while Humphry got about 38.7.

[DesertDreamer]

Bouncy ping! There are some pretty good images on this thread, too.

[Humidston]

Thanks, Howlin!

[Howlin]

We can only hope!

[Lovergirl]

LMAO. That picture just makes me laugh so hard. Kerry looked like such an idiot in his bunny suit.

[GiveEmDubya]

While I conversely don't expect a huge Bush bounce, I am positive that the RNC will be a better convention. Overall, the atmosphere will be better (since all the guys and gals there are supporting their candidate rather than indirectly supporting him via hating the other guy). We will have better speakers and Bush will give a better, more positive speech.

Not to mention, the RNC will be a hell of a lot more fun to watch.

[Diddley]

Marry wealthy and sue the rich. Good sign!

That sign cracked me up, and it said it ALL!

[Freesofar]

The rat lovers are pathetic,

Good stuff you guys ! I can't stop laughing !
I see a lot of sKerry bumper stickers here in liberal La La land, about one for every 1000 cars.

The photo of the war criminal and the trial schiester laughing it up is a classic

Bush got the last laugh in 2000
and he'll have the last laugh in 2004

I sure do love the sound of the last laugh going down

[POA2]

Only 1 in 4 Christians usually vote. Right now, there's a huge evangelical push to get out the vote for morality. If it pans out, Bush picks them up.

I've heard this quite often also - It perhaps could make a difference in MI - The only way GWB wins MI is by the Christan vote turning out in much higher numbers then ever before -

This race is still very tight overall - though the less then expected Kerry bounce (or lack thereof) definitely hurts Kerry -

Lets see where this race stands around August 20th - I have said that is the key time period - If GWB is up by 3pts or more going into the end of August......Kerry is going to play hell winning -

[SamAdams76]

I see a bigger convention bounce for Bush simply because the drama of it all will attract more viewers. The convention will be held in New York City (a stroke of genius BTW) just prior to the 9/11 anniversary. High profile Republicans such as Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger will be on hand and people are going to actually tune in to hear them speak (as opposed to Ted Kennedy and Al Sharpton).

The Dems blew their convention by having it in friendly territory (Boston). A politically gutless decision. Just imagine the ridicule that the Dems would have heaped on Bush had he chosen Houston as his convention site! By taking the convention to the Big Apple, Bush is going to be taking Hillary and Kerry head-on in their own turf as well as making a statement to the American people that he is not afraid to go to New York City - the scene of the 9/11 attacks and the biggest target of what few terrorists remain (thanks to his War on Terror).

It's already shaping up to be a political home run.

[Main Street]

[Waco]

But. but, but,,, Ho Chi Ming praised him as a hero!

[doug from upland]

Sam, pretty good analysis, but there is a missing ingredient. I don't believe there was a previous election in which the voters were this polarized. There is a very small number of uncommitted.

That having been said, I wrote a piece about three months ago regarding the GOP convention in late August/early September. New York City, September, just before the anniversary of 9-11. The patriotism will be flowing. I expect a bump from those who are uncommitted that will carry the President to November.

[jimboster]

Apparently, after giving CPR to the hamster, Kerry had all his teeth extracted.