I don't expect a big Bush bounce either, but expect Bush to build a bit of a lead going into the convention and pushing it perhaps to 4-6 points coming out. That would be huge.
I find the tune-out factor to be very large, and believe that in general only Dems watch their convention and only Republicans watch theirs. This explains why CNN was the ratings winner this week. GOP viewers of Fox said "Fine, Brit, Bill, Sean, and Greta, you do your duty, but I'm going to skip you this week."I wouldn't be surpised to see Fox triple CNN's viewership during the GOP convention when the Dems do the same thing to CNN (and what's left of MSNBC).
The disengaged don't care, and unlike 30 years ago, they've got 100 other things they can watch on TV. Even a Bill Clinton couldn't get more than a 10-point bounce in today's environment.
This one certainly said exactly that.
Prairie