Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
Please keep in mind that this is one of the most contested, heated races in a long time.
There are not that many undecideds to swing back and forth with a convention.
There is also the smallest coverage of the conventions ever.
Still, the bounce is pathetic it looks like.
OMG....that is SO funny!
She sees the election as a matter of each man's clarity. President Bush is clear and steadfast, as opposed to Senator Kerry who is confusing and unsure.
My wife is a registered Democrat and she'll tell anybody that she's voting for President Bush. FRegards...
I don't expect a big Bush bounce either, but expect Bush to build a bit of a lead going into the convention and pushing it perhaps to 4-6 points coming out. That would be huge.
I find the tune-out factor to be very large, and believe that in general only Dems watch their convention and only Republicans watch theirs. This explains why CNN was the ratings winner this week. GOP viewers of Fox said "Fine, Brit, Bill, Sean, and Greta, you do your duty, but I'm going to skip you this week."I wouldn't be surpised to see Fox triple CNN's viewership during the GOP convention when the Dems do the same thing to CNN (and what's left of MSNBC).
The disengaged don't care, and unlike 30 years ago, they've got 100 other things they can watch on TV. Even a Bill Clinton couldn't get more than a 10-point bounce in today's environment.
On another thread someone alluded to the ass-waxing Kerry was gonna experience come Nov. 2nd since it was only a 4-pointer...
Too bad that Newsweek did not have your additional facts.
I keeep saying that by Monday Kerry will be down four or five points. (Maybe I a two weeks too early!)
But Kerry does better the less people see of him. No Kerry news means a bump in the polls for him since he turns people off by his waxen, arrogant demeanor.
Information ping.
Sam has done some great research here; just what FR is about.
Marry wealthy and sue the rich. Good sign!
Fox has Kerry's bounce as 2.8?! Wow! I haven't had Fox on much today and not at all tonight. Thanks!
"...and I would have never thought that something could suck worse than drowning in a cage, but when he stuck his tongue down my throat..."
Already saw and posted to this,but thanks for the ping! I would have been miffed,had I missed it.
So, if the left wants to help reduce the Bush bounce, they should cancel the protests. At least cancel the interesting ones. (Those would be the ones with potential for head bashing and such.)
Not many will watch the convention, with coverage the smallest ever.
Most folks already have chosen a side. There just is not that many people to sway.
However, I do think that the Bush speech will fire up people because when he really hits a homerun...and this would be a really pressure-full situation in a convention that tends to produce W homeruns...he gets people fired up.
Therefore, I expect the convention to result in a bigger bounce and a more-lasting bounce that will translate into votes and a W win.
HOWEVER, we should not expect some huge bounce. There just are not that many undecides. Still, I think we will get 7-12 points out of it...almost definitely not more though.
Good news -- your wife has brains. Tell her "Thank You" from me.
Threepwood is a Canadian.
ROFL
Clarity is important. Kerry's problem is that he can't offer a comforting message to important parts of his base without risking the overall coherence of his message. Bush can change the "tone" of his statements and hit all the bases while still making sense.
People don't like dissonance.
My new favorite phrase of this campaign season.
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