If you're talking simply about "convention bounce" surely you are right. But there are other dynamics working that I think will make it closer than the "non-bounce" would make it seem.
We are seeing another "crude bounce" that is already threatening to choke off the economic recovery. Not that any of that is W's fault, but you know how the Dims will play it.
Note, I said closer, not close. The only thing that will make it close is if Osama bombs the Washington Monument in person, gets away, and says W double dog dared him to do it.
It is GWB's responsibility because of his weak dollar policy. The good news is Kerry is the worst candidate I've ever seen.