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Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time

Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76

Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).

If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.

Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.

When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.

By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!

Here are the convention bounces of other losers...

Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points

Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.

So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dncconvention; kerry; kerrybounce; newsweak; polls
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1 posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:51 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76

I think bush will get a 4 point bounce from his Browns camp appearance alone. :lol:


2 posted on 07/31/2004 8:53:06 PM PDT by z3n
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To: SamAdams76

3 posted on 07/31/2004 8:53:16 PM PDT by jwalburg (Hatriots for Kerry)
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To: SamAdams76
Well I guess that NASA photo-op didn't work out so well!


4 posted on 07/31/2004 8:54:29 PM PDT by gorebegone
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To: SamAdams76

Thanks for this excellent post, Sam.


5 posted on 07/31/2004 8:54:33 PM PDT by Howlin (Saving Private Hamster)
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To: SamAdams76

Maybe. I'm a political scientist, and I've seen lots of these things like this come and go. There might not even be a real trend under this data. I think Kerry is a strongish candidate, and this will be tight. But I'm predicting a Bush win. It'll be much easier if the Nader Left has another tandrum this time.

Repeat after me (near some democrats): "There is no difference between the parties. Spoil your vote. Vote Naderrrrrrr."
:)


6 posted on 07/31/2004 8:55:07 PM PDT by Threepwood
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To: SamAdams76
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Last poll I heard was on FOX. It gave Kerry only a 2.8 bounce. Newsweek has always had a problem with their far left wing kook factor. My guess is it was closer to the 2. It's more Kerryesk.

The problem is the missing link. There's Kerry 35 years ago, and Kerry in 2004 (psychically, anyway. Mentally is questionable). There's nothing in between. Na da. Zilch. Where was he? Did he flee to Communist Red China?

7 posted on 07/31/2004 8:55:37 PM PDT by concerned about politics ( Liberals are still stuck at the bottom of Maslow's Hierarchy)
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To: SamAdams76

Great to hear it. However, I'm not optimistic that Bush's bounce will be that great, either. This whole thing is still too close and too soon. We have no excuse to be too confident.


8 posted on 07/31/2004 8:55:52 PM PDT by Catmom
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To: SamAdams76

Plus, the W machine is ready to define Kerry IN HIS OWN WORDS. Plus humor, as in ridicule. Bunny suits, deer hunting on your belly, safron biker shorts, Kerry is TOAST!


9 posted on 07/31/2004 8:56:47 PM PDT by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. +)
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To: TomServo

Check out Sam's research.


10 posted on 07/31/2004 8:57:07 PM PDT by Howlin (Saving Private Hamster)
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To: Threepwood

Is that photo with Kerry Edwards sign crossed out during when the Kerry bus was passing by?


11 posted on 07/31/2004 8:57:08 PM PDT by bjcoop
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To: SamAdams76

The Naval Hamster Cross

Awarded for Conspicuous Gallantry in a Non-Combat Rodent Rescue


12 posted on 07/31/2004 8:57:28 PM PDT by Sloth (John Kerry: Frank Burns with Charles Winchester's pedigree.)
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To: SamAdams76
Great post. Very encouraging analysis. Thanks!

LBT

-=-=-
13 posted on 07/31/2004 8:57:37 PM PDT by LiberalBassTurds (Al Qaeda needs to know we are fluent in the "dialogue of bullets.")
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To: SamAdams76

14 posted on 07/31/2004 8:57:59 PM PDT by Lady Jag (Used to be sciencediet (aka Tad Rad) but found the solution)
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To: SamAdams76

Very interesting news. :-)


15 posted on 07/31/2004 8:59:05 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Sloth

16 posted on 07/31/2004 8:59:28 PM PDT by Lady Jag (Used to be sciencediet (aka Tad Rad) but found the solution)
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To: Sloth

Great Medal....


17 posted on 07/31/2004 8:59:33 PM PDT by Dick Vomer (liberals suck......... but it depends on what your definition of the word "suck" is.)
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To: Threepwood
A strongish candidate with a strongish motto that keeps changing:

So what is it? A stronger America? Believe in America? Or America can do Better? These guys don't look strong to me.

18 posted on 07/31/2004 8:59:34 PM PDT by jwalburg (Hatriots for Kerry)
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To: SamAdams76

Dead 'Rat bounce?


19 posted on 07/31/2004 9:00:17 PM PDT by Post Toasties
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To: bjcoop

Dunno.


20 posted on 07/31/2004 9:00:17 PM PDT by Threepwood
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