Historically, its a very small bump. But Zogby is insisting the electorate is already decided, and it's very hard to move anyone. I guess that will be proved or disproved by any bump Bush gets after the RNC convention.
They are always asking people who they will vote for, in these polls, but what about a strength of conviction type of poll? Do they have catagories like "Absolutely positive vote for Bush" or "probably Bush but not really sure?"
Zogby does. I think others do as well. And he asks the question in a couple of different ways as well. On the interactive poll he also polls some people twice with a very similar poll a few days later to double check their responses.
"They are always asking people who they will vote for, in these polls, but what about a strength of conviction type of poll? Do they have catagories like "Absolutely positive vote for Bush" or "probably Bush but not really sure?"
I've been polled by Zogby recently. They do have a 'not likely to change' category.
This is a month old but..."As has been the case since the end of the primary season, Bush’s strength of support is much higher than Kerry’s. Fully 75 percent of Bush voters say they support him "strongly" and 25 percent say "only somewhat." Among Kerry voters, just over half — 53 percent — say they support him "strongly" and 45 percent say "only somewhat."
Compare....Jimmy carter, al sharpton, the Clintons, Terresa, Abama, Gore, edwards, tutu Ron Reagon, Roger Moore, Aflect TO...
Zell Miller, Guialina (sp), Arnold Sw., Cheney, Laura Bush, and others, I see a big bounce coming on.
I am very worried about the terriosts. They wouldn't bother Kerry, but Could target Bush big time.
I believe that one of the most honest evalutative numbers will be the market share for the TV viewers of the RNC convention. The Demodogs got numbers of 10-12 last week. If the 'Pubbies do better than that, Pres.Bush and the whole party will get a better bounce than the sKerry Demodogs. Zel Miller, Gulliani, and the other speakers will not turn voters off as so many of the Demodog speakers did, and that will translate into higher poll numbers later on.
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I believe that one of the most honest evalutative numbers will be the market share for the TV viewers of the RNC convention. The Demodogs got numbers of 10-12 last week. If the 'Pubbies do better than that, Pres.Bush and the whole party will get a better bounce than the sKerry Demodogs. Zel Miller, Gulliani, and the other speakers will not turn voters off as so many of the Demodog speakers did, and that will translate into higher poll numbers later on.
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I don't know because I was only 2 in 1972, but wasn't the electorate divided than with Vietnam? Hasn't there been other elections when there were few undecided voters (1984 perhaps)?