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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, May 10, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 05/10/2004 9:56:19 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
98.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
75.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
65.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
14.1 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
6.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
20.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
0.5 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
58.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
8.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
96.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
13.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
90.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
43.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
93.0 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
89.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
83.0 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
20.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
13.0 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
3.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
36.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
36.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
95.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
65.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
92.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
70.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
56.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
14.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
56.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
8.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
86.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
57.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
96.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
40.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
59.0 |
21 |
0 |
Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
90.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
87.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
95.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
6.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
88.0 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
27.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
64.0 |
5 |
0 |
Wisconsin |
47.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
97.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
304 |
234 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 285.28 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
05/10/2004 9:56:37 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
3
posted on
05/10/2004 9:57:17 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
What we need is a Monte Carlo simulation.
Which I don't have time to do.
4
posted on
05/10/2004 10:00:16 AM PDT
by
jdege
To: Momaw Nadon
i hope that these guys are correct
5
posted on
05/10/2004 10:01:14 AM PDT
by
DM1
To: Momaw Nadon
I hope this proves to be accurate and holds true in November. Zogby is saying that the election is Kerry's to lose. That thought is scary indeed.
6
posted on
05/10/2004 10:02:04 AM PDT
by
rj45mis
To: Momaw Nadon
Accordint to a poll this past week, its much closer in California than anyone thought possible.
The thing about projections at this point is they don't allow for a Dean like implosion on the part of Kerry. He's come close in the past three weeks to "going there".
Somebody made the point earlier last month that Kerry's bristling at any critique indicates he has a "political glass jaw", becoming flustered whenever any dares to call him on his flip flopping for approval of the masses.
I suspect Bush will win this easier than anyone today believes, because I know Kerry will in fact "implode" if not before the debates, then during them.
7
posted on
05/10/2004 10:02:06 AM PDT
by
Badeye
Comment #8 Removed by Moderator
To: Momaw Nadon
do these numbers factor in the miracle of voter fraud?
9
posted on
05/10/2004 10:03:50 AM PDT
by
isom35
To: Momaw Nadon
This electoral summary looks accurate to me.
It boils down to a three state election:
Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Whoever carries two of those three states will very likely be the next President, and right now W is narrowly ahead in all three.
10
posted on
05/10/2004 10:03:51 AM PDT
by
doug9732
To: Badeye
careful with Kerry his debates are what sunk Weld in Welds Senate bid. Kerry believe it or not is a shrewd debater. that being said i really do hope that Kerry self destructs sooner the better :)
11
posted on
05/10/2004 10:04:21 AM PDT
by
DM1
To: Momaw Nadon
I'm glad that someone else does this. I sucked at statistics and probabilities in college.
12
posted on
05/10/2004 10:05:02 AM PDT
by
Blood of Tyrants
(Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn't be, in its eyes, a slave.)
To: isom35
It is put together by gamblers who are VERY familiar with people who try to cheat.
13
posted on
05/10/2004 10:05:52 AM PDT
by
Blood of Tyrants
(Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn't be, in its eyes, a slave.)
To: Momaw Nadon
I think Pennsylvania and Ohio are toss ups. Otherwise I would say its accurate.
To: doug9732
Does your projection include Bush carrying Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin?
Because he's going to.
15
posted on
05/10/2004 10:06:33 AM PDT
by
jdege
To: Momaw Nadon
It's a thing of beauty.
To: isom35
"do these numbers factor in the miracle of voter fraud?" I believe that the political futures traders at TradeSports.com factor in everything, including "the miracle of voter fraud."
17
posted on
05/10/2004 10:09:45 AM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
The "L-Shape Strategy" is still working. Starting in the Northern Rockies, draw an imaginary line down the Rockies, and across the South. These are Conservative Territory, and the Democrats will never win without them. It's nice to have the Republican color there.
To: DM1
I remember in one of these things before the last election, they had Bush winning like 394 or something like that in electorial votes and as many as 400 plus. Didn't happen did it? I don't trust any of this stuff. Polls change by the minute, event, if you are having a bad day, whatever. In the end, I think this election, like all of them, will come down to $$$$$$$. People are going to, for the most part, vote where it will benefit their pocketbooks the most. Gas prices, oil prices, losses in the market, etc., will cause stupid people to do stupid things, thus end up costing Bush the election. Iraq, the war on terror, etc., will also play into it. But, $2.00 plus on gas prices will cause some to bolt. I saw an interview with some people, on the news cast the other day, that asked about gas prices. About 95% of the ones said, it started with Bush and big oil. Get Bush out, prices come down. You know and I know that is crap, but uninformed people vote that way. Just like the poll last week where only 48% of the people had HEARD of the UN oil for food program scandle. 48%!!!!
19
posted on
05/10/2004 10:15:37 AM PDT
by
RetiredArmy
(We'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American Way! Toby Keith)
To: DM1
Bush isn't so bad himself at the debates. And Kerry could win on points only to lose because he was an arrogant SOB.
That's pretty much what happened to Gore.
20
posted on
05/10/2004 10:17:56 AM PDT
by
hchutch
(Tommy Thompson's ephedra ban STINKS.)
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