2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 10, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	98.0	9	0
Alaska	95.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	65.0	6	0
California	14.1	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	6.0	0	7
Delaware	20.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.5	0	3
Florida	58.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	8.0	0	4
Idaho	96.0	4	0
Illinois	13.0	0	21
Indiana	90.0	11	0
Iowa	43.0	0	7
Kansas	93.0	6	0
Kentucky	89.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	20.0	0	4
Maryland	13.0	0	10
Massachusetts	3.0	0	12
Michigan	36.0	0	17
Minnesota	36.0	0	10
Mississippi	95.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	92.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	56.0	4	0
New Jersey	14.0	0	15
New Mexico	56.0	5	0
New York	8.0	0	31
North Carolina	86.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	57.0	20	0
Oklahoma	96.0	7	0
Oregon	40.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	59.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	90.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	87.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	6.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	27.0	0	11
West Virginia	64.0	5	0
Wisconsin	47.0	0	10
Wyoming	97.0	3	0
Totals		304	234

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 285.28 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[jdege]

What we need is a Monte Carlo simulation.

Which I don't have time to do.

[DM1]

i hope that these guys are correct

[rj45mis]

I hope this proves to be accurate and holds true in November. Zogby is saying that the election is Kerry's to lose. That thought is scary indeed.

[Badeye]

Accordint to a poll this past week, its much closer in California than anyone thought possible.

The thing about projections at this point is they don't allow for a Dean like implosion on the part of Kerry. He's come close in the past three weeks to "going there".

Somebody made the point earlier last month that Kerry's bristling at any critique indicates he has a "political glass jaw", becoming flustered whenever any dares to call him on his flip flopping for approval of the masses.

I suspect Bush will win this easier than anyone today believes, because I know Kerry will in fact "implode" if not before the debates, then during them.

[isom35]

do these numbers factor in the miracle of voter fraud?

[doug9732]

This electoral summary looks accurate to me.
It boils down to a three state election:
Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Whoever carries two of those three states will very likely be the next President, and right now W is narrowly ahead in all three.

[DM1]

careful with Kerry his debates are what sunk Weld in Welds Senate bid. Kerry believe it or not is a shrewd debater. that being said i really do hope that Kerry self destructs sooner the better :)

[Blood of Tyrants]

I'm glad that someone else does this. I sucked at statistics and probabilities in college.

[Blood of Tyrants]

It is put together by gamblers who are VERY familiar with people who try to cheat.

[Dan Walsh]

I think Pennsylvania and Ohio are toss ups. Otherwise I would say its accurate.

[jdege]

Does your projection include Bush carrying Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin?

Because he's going to.

[Paragon Defender]

It's a thing of beauty.

[Momaw Nadon]

"do these numbers factor in the miracle of voter fraud?"

I believe that the political futures traders at TradeSports.com factor in everything, including "the miracle of voter fraud."

[TommyDale]

The "L-Shape Strategy" is still working. Starting in the Northern Rockies, draw an imaginary line down the Rockies, and across the South. These are Conservative Territory, and the Democrats will never win without them. It's nice to have the Republican color there.

[RetiredArmy]

I remember in one of these things before the last election, they had Bush winning like 394 or something like that in electorial votes and as many as 400 plus. Didn't happen did it? I don't trust any of this stuff. Polls change by the minute, event, if you are having a bad day, whatever. In the end, I think this election, like all of them, will come down to $$$$$$$. People are going to, for the most part, vote where it will benefit their pocketbooks the most. Gas prices, oil prices, losses in the market, etc., will cause stupid people to do stupid things, thus end up costing Bush the election. Iraq, the war on terror, etc., will also play into it. But, $2.00 plus on gas prices will cause some to bolt. I saw an interview with some people, on the news cast the other day, that asked about gas prices. About 95% of the ones said, it started with Bush and big oil. Get Bush out, prices come down. You know and I know that is crap, but uninformed people vote that way. Just like the poll last week where only 48% of the people had HEARD of the UN oil for food program scandle. 48%!!!!

[hchutch]

Bush isn't so bad himself at the debates. And Kerry could win on points only to lose because he was an arrogant SOB.

That's pretty much what happened to Gore.