2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 10, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[hunter112]

Reagan put a stake through its heart when he fired the Air Traffic Controllers, which to me was at least as important to our nation as was his fight against the Soviets.

Good point, but we need another Reaganesque move to finish the job, by getting rid of the public employee unions, particularly the teacher unions. Government spending would go down if someone could accomplish that.

Outsource bureaucracy!

[Badeye]

The Teachers Union needs to be outlawed, the rest are dying of natural causes, in my opinion.

Of all the unions, only the Teachers actually bother to vote as the leadership tells them too.

Which is a good example of the inability of our teachers being able to think for themselves, which is the primary problem in our schools today, in my opinion.

[Boxsford]

As far as Kerry being 'over the top' your right. My father in law was going to vote for Kerry back in the first part of this year. Now he says he'll vote for Bush and is disappointed the dems don't have a stronger candidate.

[Krodg]

I told you I'm not going to argue unions!

[jdege]

OK - I did a Monte Carlo.

Generate a random number between 0 and 99 for each state, if it's greater than the Bush percentage, Bush gets the EVs.

Run the process 1048576 times, Bush wins 71% of the time.

Mean EVs is 290.8, stdDev is 36.9.

Not good enough.

[jdege]

	Probability	Electoral	Votes
Date	Bush Win	Mean	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Anyone who thinks Bush is responsible for $2.00 gas should be told that it is the environmentalist wackos (Democrats) who are responsible for $2.00 gas. They prevent any attempt at new exploration and production of energy. Our side does not do a good job of proclaiming this truth.

[So Cal Rocket]

Thanks for running the Monte Carlo... I'd really like to see Bush at least 1 std dev above 270 EVs.

Question... shouldn't you be generating a random number between 0 and 100 (rather than 99)? This would improve Bush's probability of winning slightly.

[jdege]

0.0 to 99.9.

[jdege]

Bush is responsible for $2.00 gas - or at least he's responsible for those policies that have convinved the Saudis to boost gas prices in an attempt to convince us to drive him from office.

The whole world of collectivists and tyrants are opposed to Bush's war - George Soros is playing games with the currency, the Saudis are playing games with oil prices, the media is playing games with information.

All of this crap isn't coming down because of Bush, it's coming down because those who oppose freedom are only unable to fight those of us who support it in any other way.

"These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives everything its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as freedom should not be highly rated.

- Thomas Paine

[RetiredArmy]

One of the conservative movement's largest mistakes is our failures to put the word out. There are ways, but we do not do a good job of it. The envirowacckos not allowing refineries to be built is a major boo-boo that we have not got the word out on. What was it, last week or the week before that the Saudi guy said he could park a thousand tankers off the coast full of oil, but we would still have the shortages because we do not have the capacity to refine the oil to gas and because we have so many stinking blends of gas that cities, counties, states, regions, etc. have requirements for, all because of the envirowaccos. Stupid Kerry thinks he can do something about it, but unless he or Bush get some refineries built, we will continue to have these shortages. And, it ain't gonna get any better as the summer driving season runs on.

[Ciexyz]

PA results should go down to the wire election nite.

[Grampa Dave]

Graybeard58's question, "The most virulent anti-Bushies that I have to deal with have one thing in common...they don't vote. Red Badger's great response, "Most states do not allow FELONS to vote.........!"

[Grampa Dave]

Lets try this again, FR stripped a little code out and omitted No Dems's response/question

Graybeard58's question, "The most virulent anti-Bushies that I have to deal with have one thing in common...they don't vote.

No Dems's added response, "I've noticed that too. I wonder why?"

Red Badger's great response, "Most states do not allow FELONS to vote.........!"

[Liz]

"Most states do not allow FELONS to vote.........!"

Heheh.....nice zinger.

[Straight Vermonter]

		Bush		Kerry
1/21/04		355		183
1/26/04		355		183
2/2/04		355		183
2/9/04		321		217
2/16/04		321		217
2/23/04		278		260
3/1/04		278		260
3/8/04		278		260
3/15/04		278		260
3/22/04		278		260
3/29/04		299		239
4/5/04		304		234
4/12/04		304		234
4/19/04		304		234
4/26/04		314		224
5/3/04		304		234
5/10/04		304		234
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[Straight Vermonter]

it has been shown that the "undecideds" usually swing against the incumbent

I don't think that is right. undecideds will almost always go to who they think will win. This is why Reagan in 80 won by far more than anyone expected (although they were voting against an incumbent).

[Straight Vermonter]

The only major disagreement I have is with Vermont. I'd have Bush closer to 15% there.

Bush has zero chance of winning Vermont, he only polls in the 30s. I hope he doesn't spend a dime here since it won't help anyway. The only slight glimmer of hope would be if Nader made some huge inroads on Kerry's voters.

[boxsmith13]

arkansas is dangerously low