[jdege]

Does your projection include Bush carrying Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin?

Because he's going to.

[TomEwall]

I think Bush is actually ahead in all three of these states right now, but there hasn't been much polling there (especially by pollsters that aren't Dem friendly), so that's not evident. But it's logical, given that Bush is a little ahead nationally, to expect he would be ahead in these states that were so close last time.