[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 285.28 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[jdege]

What we need is a Monte Carlo simulation.

Which I don't have time to do.

[DM1]

i hope that these guys are correct

[rj45mis]

I hope this proves to be accurate and holds true in November. Zogby is saying that the election is Kerry's to lose. That thought is scary indeed.

[isom35]

do these numbers factor in the miracle of voter fraud?

[doug9732]

This electoral summary looks accurate to me.
It boils down to a three state election:
Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Whoever carries two of those three states will very likely be the next President, and right now W is narrowly ahead in all three.

[Dan Walsh]

I think Pennsylvania and Ohio are toss ups. Otherwise I would say its accurate.

[TommyDale]

The "L-Shape Strategy" is still working. Starting in the Northern Rockies, draw an imaginary line down the Rockies, and across the South. These are Conservative Territory, and the Democrats will never win without them. It's nice to have the Republican color there.

[no dems]

Thanks for the info. I hope you're right about Ohio and Pennsylvania. I can more readily believe that the Prez has a chance in Ohio than PA. But, this is encouraging. Thanks again.

Your total for Bush is 6 less than the latest Fox News Projection.

[Integrityrocks]

I look forward to these posts each week. I am not a gambler but I think anyone who hasn't made up their mind already that they either are for Bush or they hate him, will swing to the Bush side. Kerry is just too over the top for any swing voter.

[marblehead17]

ping

[jla]

The traders need to add a minimum of 96 votes to the W column. :^)

[WayneM]

I'm proud to live in Alabama, which, upon quick inspection, has the highest probability of a Bush win (98%).

The only bad thing about this situation is that we can't find any Dumocrats (or at least anyone who will admit to being one) to jeer and embarrass.

[jdege]

	Probability	Electoral	Votes
Date	Bush Win	Mean	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8

[Straight Vermonter]

		Bush		Kerry
1/21/04		355		183
1/26/04		355		183
2/2/04		355		183
2/9/04		321		217
2/16/04		321		217
2/23/04		278		260
3/1/04		278		260
3/8/04		278		260
3/15/04		278		260
3/22/04		278		260
3/29/04		299		239
4/5/04		304		234
4/12/04		304		234
4/19/04		304		234
4/26/04		314		224
5/3/04		304		234
5/10/04		304		234
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[boxsmith13]

arkansas is dangerously low

[Future Useless Eater]

here's a composite of trends shown graphically [dates shown are Monday dates]...
    with Beltway Boys (Saturday predictions)...
    with Tradesports (Monday predictions)...
    with FederalReview (Tuesday predictions)...

Bush	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
Kerry	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
	Saturday	Monday	Tuesday

01.26

02.02

02.09

02.16

02.23

03.01

03.08

03.15

03.22

03.29

04.05

04.12

04.19

04.26

05.03

prisoner story broke 4/28 and Fed.Rev added Rasmussen

05.10