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Posted on 03/18/2026 7:54:48 AM PDT by millenial4freedom
Wholesale prices rose sharply in February, providing another sign that inflation continues to percolate even aside from rising energy prices.
The producer price index, a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core PPI increased 0.5%.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% for both measures.
For the all-items index, prices rose faster than the 0.5% pace in January. However, the core increase was less than the 0.8% for the prior month.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
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Bets on whether it will be adjusted down when the real numbers come in.
Four years ago CNBC would have attributed this to “a booming economy.”
See Surrender Monkeys I told you after the good news for America in the war against Islamist terror, you’d have something to cheer about. But don’t sit and wait. These numbers are often adjusted downward when it turns out they were generated by a communist in our government somewhere.
Okay. I guess.
With huge the temporary increase in oil prices and the high PPI reported this morning, and there is an increasing case for an increase, not a decrease.
The FED is telegraphing one cut late in the year. Obviously, that assumes their projections hold.
Powell’s comments this afternoon will be critical to see how the markets react.
The only way the FED gets to its inflation goal is to cause a recession. That’s why everyone expects the FED to do nothing.
Inflation number doesn’t typically get revised.
GDP and Unemployment are harder to calculate, so they get released in stages (like “Advance,” “Preliminary,” and “Final” estimates), and can have large revisions. Inflation is what it is. The only weirdness recently is that the data wasn’t collected in October due to the Govt shutdown, so they just averaged Sept. and Nov.
That is what usually happens when there is a Republican president.
With a oil blockade and us blowing through a billion a day on the way in Iran, I don’t see how the FED can estimate a rate cut. In fact, I think it will be fortunate we don’t get rates going up especially with the deficit booming.
Thirded.
I think it’s coin flip - pending more data this year - whether we might actually see the Fed *hike* rather than *cut* later this year, but we’ll see.
I think Fed watchers are still overly scared of the old stagflation monster — but yeah, I could see serious problems towards that end if the Fed decides to get too aggressive in rate cutting.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) since its official measurement began in 1913, was 23.7% in June 1920, so comparibaly it is insignificant now compared to then.
Jimmy Carter had the highest average inflation rate of any U.S. president, with an average year-over-year inflation rate of 9.85% during his term from 1977 to 1981. Inflation peaked at over 13% in 1980, reaching a high of 14.6% in March and April of that year, driven largely by energy crises following the Iranian Revolution and global oil shocks.
We survived then, and you will suurvive now.
Youth sees the current realities, but many know nothing of what past generations had faced.
“With huge the temporary increase in oil prices and the high PPI reported this morning, and there is an increasing case for an increase, not a decrease.”
The FED won’t move rates based on the oil issue. I’m waiting for the PPI adjustment before trying to predict if PPI is a problem. Looking at the entire picture I don’t see anything changing for the FED. They can’t cut, they can’t raise. They will continue to tinker with their other levers in the credit area. Once Iran cools down, so will the fear.
If Trump doesn't get us out of this debacle soon, Republicans will be crushed in the mid-terms.
What do you care.
The CPI (core inflation) doesn't include energy costs. So oil price may not be a factor in the Fed's decision.
JPow has telegraphed that he wants more QE anyway. IMHO that doesn't get enough attention for how much that juices up the economy (and increases inflation, perhaps as much as lowering interest rates).
COI was good
BTW - quite aside from the inflation and jobs data that will quite rightly drive the decision, I’d also note ongoing problems in private equity.
Funds are shutting down redemption as some serious stressers hit. I think this needs to unwind naturally to prevent bigger problems down the road.
A Fed rate cut is going to give some of those potentially troubled holdings a lifeline and I think that would be a BAD thing longterm... maybe not 2008 bad, but maybe 2008 bad.
Let’s not go there again. Less pain today/near-term is far better than bigger pain tomorrow.
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