Posted on 12/24/2025 6:14:22 PM PST by SunkenCiv
Asteroid 2024 YR4, has sparked concern about its chance of hitting Earth in December 2032. How worried should we be?
Scientists Warn Asteroid YR4 May Impact Earth - What We Know So far | 20:22
Dr Ben Miles | 2.17M subscribers | 462,064 views | February 23, 2025
0:00 The Discovery 2024 YR4
0:56 How to Spot an Asteroid
3:07 Ad Read
4:33 Why Are We So Bad at Predicting Asteroid Impacts?
11:42 How Much Damage Could YR4 Do?
13:04 How Could We Stop Asteroid YR4?
16:34 Conclusion
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
If it does impact the Moon Hawaii is apparently the best place to watch it happen. Some places on the West coast could see it as well.
I will be 92 in 2032. I think it would be cool to die from an asteroid instead of cancer or heart attack.
If the Democrats take the White House and Congress in 2028 many will be praying for an extinction level meteor strike.
From 3% to 0%--not much of a move--but gives total relief.
Why bury the good news so deep?
Kerblam! Problem solved. If there’s to be a big one, I’d prefer to be at ground zero, rather than endure the aftermath of its impact somewhere else.
1:33 isn’t “no significant risk”. A lunar impact would be more interesting to watch, but large ejecta could be a problem on Earth over subsequent months or years.
Nope! It’s systemic racism.😁
Piazzi, who discovered Ceres, was retroactively vindicated when the IAU re-classified Ceres as a minor planet.
But in fact, an asteroid is a planet, it’s just usually too small to get that designation. Pluto was removed from the list of major planets.
When he said he had found a planet, he didn’t know there would be hundreds then thousands more of them to be discovered, all smaller than Ceres, and that they would not be accepted as planets.
Also, while Christmas cookies might be going stale on Dec 27th, I don’t see how new years resolutions would already be abandoned unless one was travelling backwards in time.
“I wanted to find out what we know about YR4 and how worried we need to be that one city is about to become the unluckiest place in the world.”
When I first saw this story saying 90 m, I thought 90 miles in diameter, Oh fxxk, we are toast if it hits. Then I realized it was 90 meters, oh well some bodies are fxxked, but 2/3rds of the earth is water. If it hits there it is only the coastal areas surrounding the ocean where it hits: north Atlantic, south Atlantic, north Pacific, south Pacific; Indian Ocean, waters off Antarctica, Arctic Ocean. But a lot of calculating will need to be done to predict how far inland or up mountains people will have to move depending on which ocean and how close to land if strikes. Then a lot of evacuating plans will need to be made as well as storing food and other necessities for evacuated people. Many jobs there for good estimators and counters. Meanwhile, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone.
I'll be dead by then so I don't care.
Elon Musk's Grok says:
No, asteroid 2024 YR4 will not hit Earth. It was discovered in December 2024 and initially assessed to have a small probability (peaking at around 3%) of impacting on December 22, 2032, but additional observations by February 2025 effectively ruled out any collision risk.
Instead, it will make a close but safe approach to Earth on that date.
OT:
Isaacman’s Announcements on Lunar Lander
Jared Isaacman, NASA’s newly confirmed administrator, has announced a competitive approach to selecting the lunar lander for the Artemis program. On his first day in office (December 18, 2025), he stated that the company - either SpaceX with its Starship or Blue Origin with its Blue Moon lander - that delivers a functional lunar lander first will be chosen for the mission. This decision prioritizes strategic objectives, particularly beating China to a sustained lunar presence, over existing contract agreements.
Isaacman emphasized urgency, declaring, “whichever lander was available first to ensure that America achieves its strategic objectives on the moon is the one we were going to go with.” This shift intensifies competition between the two companies, especially as SpaceX has faced delays with its Starship Human Landing System (HLS), originally slated for Artemis III in 2027.
NASA lunar lander competition
Jared Isaacman Artemis program statement
Latest calculations favor a hit on the moon, but still relatively low probability. But if it does hit the moon, it would cause meteorites to strike earth, and also take out satellites.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/asteroid-moon-impact-2032-2024-yr4
That's it should be. China's as much of a threat as the USSR was in the 1960s. Leftish Scott Manley's 12/25 wrapup is huge.
It's The end of the year, and we have a rocket launch frenzy as everyone closes out their calendar. SpaceX, China, even Rocket Lab gets 3 more launches in. However for all the launch activity the most important event is in the US government where Jared Isaacman steps into the NASA Administrator role and Trump signs an executive order with new goals for US space policy.Year End Rocket Launch Frenzy!
NASA Administrator Takes Control
- Deep Space Update - Dec 23rd | 31:47
Scott Manley | 1.82M subscribers | 190,254 views | December 24, 20250:00 - Hullo, it's Scott Manley here!
0:31 - Starlink Launches
0:58 - Guowang Launches
1:20 - The More Interesting Launches!
12:14 - Long March 12A's First Flight
13:30 - Soyuz MS-27 Returns to Earth
14:04 - Blue Origin flies NS-37
15:09 - Crew 12 Announced!
15:29 - Starship at Launch Complex 37 16:08 - NASA loses contact with MAVEN?
17:02 - SpaceX Goes Public???
17:40 - Aetherflux's Space Datacenters
17:55 - Space Force Mission Naming Scheme
19:04 - Impulse Space's Remora Mission
19:48 - NASA to test Starshield
20:31 - A new private space station?
21:20 - Russia's ISS Successor
22:41 - Repairs at Baikonur
23:11 - Astrobotic's Test Rockets
24:05 - Isaacman Becomes NASA Admin!
26:05 - New Executive Order on Space
28:27 - Artemis II Rehearsal
29:33 - Tory Bruno leaves ULA?!
31:22 - Fly Safe!
Flurries of small ones could wind up producing natural fireworks-like displays, day and night. Could be fun. SpaceX can loft satellites to replace lost ones.
You beat me.
/SMOD 2026
If I’m still alive, I think I would enjoy the show.
Many large pieces of moon would tear thru our various satellite layers and wreak pure hell on earthly communications of all kinds.
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