Posted on 12/13/2019 1:17:04 PM PST by Red Badger
Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Last day shown: 31 October 2019. Last diagram update: 1 November 2019. [Courtesy climate4you.com]
*Deep solar minimum on the verge of an historic milestone*
Overview
The sun is currently in the midst of a deep solar minimum and it is about to reach an historic milestone. So far this year the sun has been blank (i.e., no visible sunspots) for 266 days and, barring any major surprises, it’ll reach 269 days early next week which will be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 when the sun was spotless for 311 days. In fact, the current stretch of consecutive spotless days has reached 29 and for the year the sun has been blank 77% of the time. The current record-holder in the satellite era for spotless days in a given year is 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913.
Solar minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, but the last one and the current one have been far deeper than most. One of the consequences of a solar minimum is a reduction of solar storms and another is the intensification of cosmic rays. The just ended solar cycle 24 turned out to be one of the weakest in more than a century – continuing a weakening trend that began in the 1980’s – and, if the latest forecasts are correct, the next solar cycle will be the weakest in more than 200 years.
The sun remains spotless today and has been so 77% of the time in 2019; image courtesy NASA SDO/HMI, spaceweather.com
Solar minimum and the intensification of cosmic rays
One of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more and more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from outside the solar system that can impact the Earth’s atmosphere. Our first line of defense from cosmic rays comes from the sun as its magnetic field and the solar wind combine to create a ‘shield’ that fends off cosmic rays attempting to enter the solar system. The shielding action of the sun is strongest during solar maximum and weakest during solar minimum with the weakening magnetic field and solar wind. The intensity of cosmic rays varies globally by about 15% over a solar cycle because of changes in the strength of the solar wind, which carries a weak magnetic field into the heliosphere, partially shielding Earth from low-energy galactic charged particles.
Cosmic rays have been intensifying for more than 4 years. On Dec. 5th and 6th they surged within a percentage point of the Space Age record, according to data from neutron counters at the University of Oulu’s Cosmic Ray Station in Finland. Courtesy spaceweather.com.
High-altitude balloons have been launched on a periodic basis in recent years to monitor stratospheric radiation associated with the influx of cosmic rays and they have shown a steady increase since 2015 (campaign sponsored by spaceweather.com). In this set of measurements, cosmic rays have increased by about 13% during the past four years over the central part of California. At another location, the neutron monitor at the University of Oulu’s cosmic ray station in Finland recorded levels earlier this month that were within a percentage point of the satellite era record.
Cosmic rays in the stratosphere are intensifying for the 4th year in a row. This finding comes from a campaign of almost weekly high-altitude balloon launches conducted by the students of Earth to Sky Calculus. Since March 2015, there has been a ~13% increase in X-rays and gamma-rays over central California, where the students have launched hundreds of balloons. The grey points in the graph are Earth to Sky balloon data. Overlaid on that time series is a record of neutron monitor data from the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland. The correlation between the two data sets is impressive, especially considering their wide geographic separation and differing methodologies. Neutron monitors have long been considered a “gold standard” for monitoring cosmic rays on Earth. This shows that our student-built balloons are gathering data of similar quality.
Cosmic rays are of interest to anyone who flies on airplanes. According to spaceweather.com, the International Commission on Radiological Protection has classified pilots as occupational radiation workers because of cosmic ray doses they receive while flying. A recent study by researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health shows that flight attendants face an elevated risk of cancer compared to members of the general population. They listed cosmic rays as one of several risk factors. There are also some studies that suggest cosmic rays promote the formation of clouds in the atmosphere; if so, increasing cosmic rays could affect weather and climate.
400 years of sunspot observations; courtesy Wikipedia
Solar cycle 25
The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years or so. Researchers have been tracking solar cycles since they were discovered in the 19th century. The just ended solar cycle, #24, was the weakest with the fewest sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continued a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980. The very latest forecast for the next solar cycle (#25) says it will be weaker than the just ended SC24 and perhaps the weakest of the last 200 years. To be fair, some earlier forecasts had the next solar cycle being in similar magnitude to SC24. However, research now underway has apparently found a more reliable method to predict space weather. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot numbers, could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one – solar cycle 24 according to the latest forecast. The results of this new forecasting technique show that the next solar cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.
The new forecast is the work of a team led by Irina Kitiashvili of the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley, California. Using data collected since 1976 from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory space missions, the researchers were able to come up with a prediction by directly observing the solar magnetic field rather than simply counting sunspots, which provides only a rough gauge of activity inside the Sun. Because this is a relatively new approach, there is only data from four complete cycles, but by combining three sources of solar observations with estimates of the Sun’s interior activity, the team was able to produce a prediction in 2008 that matched the activity that was observed over the past 11 years.
One challenge for researchers working to predict the Sun’s activities is that scientists do not yet completely understand the inner workings of our star. Some factors that play out deep inside the Sun cannot be measured directly. They have to be estimated from measurements of related phenomena on the solar surface like sunspots, coronal holes and filaments. Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun.
Temperature recordings at the Greenland Ranch weather station in Death Valley, California during the intense heat wave of July 1913. This excerpt about the record-breaking heat wave comes from an article posted during January 1922 in the meteorological journal Monthly Weather Review which is still in publication today. Courtesy NOAA
Extreme weather of 1913
One final note of interest, the year 1913 cited earlier for its lack of sunspots on the order of 311 days was a year filled with wild weather extremes including the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth in Death Valley, CA. For more on the extreme weather of 1913 click here.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian Perspecta, Inc. perspectaweather.com
Thanks for your corrections and instruction regarding light and cosmic rays.
Found the following from Oct. 2019, sounds like it is a request for research funding:
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ018058%2F1
Excerpt:
“Some studies have found correlations between changes in the Earth’s magnetic field and climate parameters. However, the responsible mechanism for this link has remained elusive. This project will investigate one possible pathway by which the Earth’s magnetic field could affect climate, namely the downward propagation of changes initiated in the upper atmosphere (~100-500 km). This is a novel idea that has not been investigated before.”
(Hmm - Warthog - either their idea isn’t so novel - or you are one of these guys!)
Thanks for posting about the GSM. I’m glad to see people discussing this.
“Yeah, especially when the leftist have been trying to brainwash everyone for decades with dire warning and tales of doom about their global warming scam.
Btw, if this comes to pass, another big issue would be tens of millions headed southbound from the north.”
Yep, and this has been done intentionally, it is a trap being set. The Sierra Club started working on setting up this mass human extinction goal in the early 70s. Since they have pushed it globally. Aside from being profitable, it is all about creating highly vulnerable victims in mass to help reduce population. All of it, the environmental issues, gun control, urban “development” and cultural integration, promoting and rewarding criminals, failed healthcare, Etc. All geared towards reducing population as the true end cause and effect.
As for everyone heading south... This has been the Libertarian argument against the wall. But... if this happens the situation in Mexico will be much much worse. When the globe gets colder it also gets drier closer to the equator. Everything south of us is going to dry up and die.
Nope...not "one of these guys". Done retired from the science rat-race. But yes, I have been nattering on about earth and solar magnetic field interactions and climate for years.
Everybody is so totally focussed on the photonic mechanism that pretty much everything else has fallen aside in the propaganda wars.
The cosmic ray/cloud formation idea has been around for a long time, and the warmists absolutely hate it, because their models totally ignore cloud effects.
The sun is approching a micronova event. Civalization will experience a restart.This cycle repeats every 12000 years.
The archaeological site of Gobekli Tepe in Southeastern Turkey is evidence of an advanced civilization that existed before the end of the last ice age which ended suddenly in 9,700 BC due to cataclysmic solar events that rained havoc on the earth.
The beautifully carved stone pillars unearthed at Gobekli Tepe were oriented toward the Pleiades, Taurus, and the constellation Orion. Above and underground rock shelters in the Cappadocia region of Turkey are estimated to have at one time each sheltered tens of thousands of people and small animals.
Easter Island in the South Pacific also reveals evidence of catastrophic solar events on petroglyphs - stone carvings depicting powerful plasma events in the skies that ended the last ice age. Stone bunkers built on Easter Island would have given shelter. The Easter Island Rongorongo glyphs depict what resembles plasma discharges that would have been seen in the sky. A 6,000 year dark age ensued which Robert Schoch refers to as the Solar Induced Dark Age.
Robert Schoch | The Solar Induced Dark Age | August 29, 2018 | EuropesHeart | Published on September 3, 2018 | YouTube
Robert Schoch is an associate professor of Natural Sciences at the College of General Studies, Boston University. He has been best known as a proponent of the Sphinx water erosion hypothesis.Joe Rogan Experience #1124 - Robert Schoch | PowerfulJRE | Streamed live on May 31, 2018 | YouTube (about three hours)
Thanks Red Badger.
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Your statistics is why I believe time travel is impossible. An object would never appear in the same place, forward or backward. Earth, Solar System, Galaxy are so far from the point of departure, that said object could appear inside an asteroid or in deep space, etc. I doubt future minds/computers/AI can pinpoint an exact place and time. The calculations are almost infinite. The only time travel will be through the supernatural or beings from another dimension.
You didn’t include a major influence on feminine and masculine traits - hormones. That is not in the mind. It is basic physiology that runs through the bloodstream into many organs. Men don’t get a morning stiffy while still asleep, because they’re thinking about some hot women (or even dreaming). They get them because of the natural rhythm of testosterone working with their circadian clock. Women have the same circadian clock and respond to their hormone levels differently.
Quiet Sun, climate affected
The universe expands and changes over millennia
Mites imagine they matter
NOT TRUE- That is not in the mind.
If I went to the local pub with you and a beautiful blonde started flirting with you from across the bar, you would become aroused and your hormones would kick in.
If she flirted with you and gave you a big smile they would increase.
And if, just as you were ready to go over and introduce yourself to her, I pointed out that “SHE” has an Adam’s apple, Your hormones would do a 180 degree turn and shut down.
The mind controls hormones in many ways. In addition, hormones act as neurotransmitters in the brain creating a feedback loop.
The posterior pituitary gland is actually part of the brain and it secretes hormones directly into the bloodstream under the command of the brain.
Could that big yellow ball we see in the day have something to do with it? Pretty sure that ball's magnetic field changes.
Yes, certain parts of the brain is in the loop even when cognitive function (mind) is not. I'm almost 70 years old and your lecturing me on a hot woman in a pub? Please.
My point was not all sexual/sensual feelings are controlled by the mind, which is cognitive when awake. A person can be deep asleep or in a lite coma and still the reptile part of the brain that controls certain bodily functions still works. C'mon this is grade school stuff.
My career is neuroscience research.
I commend you for your accomplishment, and sure you agree there is a difference between the basal ganglia, the limbic system, and the neocortex. We could go on about the functions and sub-divisions of each, but I stand by that without conscience (mind) stimuli, the body continues to process the precursor hormone of cholesterol into the following as simplified below:
Estrogen.
Progesterone.
Prolactin.
Testosterone.
Serotonin.
Cortisol.
Understood that some have their own sub-hormones like Estradiol.
There are many types of hormones. Not all are lipid or cholesterol based.
Thanks - I bookmarked your link.
Ans yes, since the “climate change” agenda began to dominate climate questions not enough is being done to investigate all the electromagnetic forces, solar high energy particle sources and cosmic (from outside the solar system) high energy sources for what impacts they may be having on weather and climate.
“You forgot the Milky Way galaxy traveling throughout the universe.”
Absolute fact, I did indeed forget that additional plane of movement. The combination of influences in total is just absolutely incredible. It’s a train wreck waiting to happen.
In addition, I am one of those who believe that our universe is just one of many. They might be as numerous as the galaxies we just can’t see the others yet. If so, what would be the pattern of movement be in all these?
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