Posted on 02/20/2025 5:17:35 AM PST by Red Badger
Graphic of the possible locations of 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032, as of February 19, 2025. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. The range of possibilities has decreased from the previous image because of the additional data gathered. Credit: NASA JPL/CNEOS
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Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which once had the highest recorded impact probability for its size. Current estimates place its chance of hitting Earth at 1.5% in 2032, with a smaller risk for the Moon.
With the full moon now past, the skies have darkened, allowing astronomers to resume observations of asteroid 2024 YR4. Ground-based telescopes need minimal light pollution to detect asteroids, which are often faint and difficult to spot. During a full moon, the sky is too bright, making observations nearly impossible.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has analyzed new data reported to the Minor Planet Center. On February 18, updated calculations placed the asteroid’s impact probability for December 22, 2032, at 3.1% — the highest ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, by February 19, new overnight observations refined the estimate, lowering the impact probability to 1.5%.
Graphic of the possible locations of 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 as of January 27, 2025. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. Credit: NASA JPL/CNEOS Refining the Asteroid’s Path
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Each additional night of observations helps scientists narrow down the asteroid’s possible trajectory and better assess any potential risk to Earth. NASA expects these probability estimates to continue changing as more data is collected in the coming days and weeks.
These recent observations have further constrained the uncertainty around the asteroid’s trajectory, and the yellow dots in the above graphics represent possible locations of the asteroid on December 22, 2032. As we continue to observe the asteroid’s motion over time, the region of possible locations will shrink even further. For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032.
Potential Impact on the Moon
Additionally, there is also a – much lower — chance this asteroid could impact the Moon. Current calculations estimate this impact probability to be 0.8%.
NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, set to launch no earlier than September 2027, will accelerate NASA’s ability to discover unknown asteroids by hunting for them in the infrared. While dark in visible light, asteroids and comets glow in the infrared as they’re heated by sunlight. In addition, NEO Surveyor will add an in-space vantage point that complements ground-based observatories.
“Lucifer’s Hammer” by Niven and Pournelle.
Wolf-Biederman ?
Loved that book! Read it when it first came out!............
Implanting that rocket engine - after a successful “gentle and accurate landing” of the engine, its guidance package and fuel tanks on the rapidly spinning and tumbling rock! - will be very, very difficult.
Once landed, then as you point out, it needs to be securely implanted into the rock (or metal and rock or gravel or whatever is found) so the rocket thrust actual gets aimed where it needs to be pointed so the impact point is moved to a “safer” position for future orbits.
My opinion? Measure, then blast it with a big (50 to 100 Megaton) into 2 or 3 smaller blobs. Each blob will have a new trajectory. Each impact will stop higher in the atmosphere too.
A bit dated, but an excellent survival novel.
We need a moon colony, and soon!
Stopping the (probably multi-axis) rotation of a rock could be done a few different ways. A small nuke would work. An impact from a different, smaller hunk of Solar System debris would work, and would be within current technical limits.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4296982/posts?page=22#22
There is a lot to be said about a pure impact (heavy mass) impact. But, in addition to the obvious need to verify the asteroids actual mass and precise orbit so the need for changing the orbit at all is determined, we need a good vector for the fragments after the impact is known.
Last I heard the mass was uncertain by a factor of over 8. Total kinetic energy uncertain from 5 Megaton to 90 Megaton.
(Boeing should change its current go-to-the-moon-with-a-manned-rocket, and reprogram its failing big booster program. Otherwise, SpaceX will grab this contract too.
A simply flyby (or two) will test the long-range, deep space process. After a flyby (and Orbital refueling process works), then small impactors to determine mass of the rock are feasible.
Don’t worry, President Musk will take care of the problem. After all he would not want his Mar a Lago estate which he purchased from the late President Trump’s heirs to be drowned by a tsunami caused by this asteroid.
President Musk? Well, if you can get rid of “birth right citizenship”, surely birth right Presidency cannot be far behind. Unfortunately for The Arnold, he will be too old to help the Republican Party by this time.
Great point! I still can’t understand how someone becomes a U.S. citizen if they take their first dump on American soil.
Apparently it is part of the Constitution which the President is sworn to protect and defend. Even if the President does not do his job, changing the Constitution is a long drawn out process.
“The angle of impact is also vitally important..”
Not if it lands on you.
It doesn’t need to be changed. It only be read as it was written. Even the guy who wrote it said it does not apply to illegal aliens. It was written for former slaves. They even had to pass the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924 to grant U.S. citizenship to American Indians.
LOL, we were talking about a tsunami.......A 90° impact would make a huge wave in all directions...............
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