Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
As noted last week, Dr appt and other fact of life prevented me from getting this out yesterday, so a bit longer trying to catch up.
Of course all heck breaks out in the meanwhile . . . .
Globalism / Great Reset –
China and Brazil have signed a deal to conduct bilateral trade in their own currencies. Experts estimate the trade to be worth about $150.5 billion.
The French company TotalEnergies sold 65,000 tons of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) to China and conducted the sale in yuan instead of dollars.
OBSERVATION - De-dollarizing trade has been a major line of effort by China to mitigate the risk of international sanctions and fallout over action on Taiwan. Chinese efforts to undercut the dollar are also expressed in the BRIC organization (Brazil, Russia, India, China) efforts to trade in currency other than the dollar. This effort is gaining other countries, however, the dollar remains a significant currency of trade, but could get hit hard in the event of a global crisis.
This applies to the global reset because the US economy must be crushed and its global dominance ended in order for the powers that be to execute their “reset” plans. A strong and dominant US will thwart any reset effort.
Wuhan virus –
U.S. Senate votes 68-23 to end COVID-19 “national emergency” that’s been in place since 2020.
Economy –
U.S. money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s, a red flag for the economy and financial markets. Money supply (M2) has now been shrinking year-on-year since December, an unprecedented development in modern times that should make investors sit up and take notice - growth, asset prices and inflation could all weaken.
Current M2 levels are below the pre-wuhan levels.
OBSERVATION - In my understanding, the high M2 was one of the many causes of the skyrocketing inflation rates of the past several years. It took off in response to economic shocks caused by the wuhan shutdown and related chaos, with the fed printing out tons of money. Printing more money made that money worth less. Rapid shrinking could cause the opposet response – a deflationary cycle that could be equally crushing to the economy due to the rapid change in just a short year’s time. Other analysts indicate that money in the system is ‘static’, not moving around – meaning in part that banks are being hesitant in making loans. Dropping M2 could also signal a potential end of the feds increases in the prime rate and could even indicate lowering the prime could be justified. However, the sudden drop suggests that further bumpy ride for the economy as it has been given little time to make adjustments.
Invasion of Illegals –
Record numbers of Chinese being intercepted at the border.
Biden / Harris watch –
No statement of grief for the families affected by the murdering transgender killer. Only a statement on how wonderful transgenders are and what a contribution to the nation they have made.
CW2/Domestic violence –
MSM and other leftist mouthpieces have worked to bury the radical/violent transgender movement as being the ‘victims’ of transgender ‘hate’. Even going as far as erasing that it was a CHRISTIAN school that was attacked and that is was the fault of Christian that their children were killed because of their transphobia. In an exclusive report on Thursday, The New York Post revealed CBS News executives sent out a memo demanding staff purposefully ignore the shooter’s gender identity, even though police indicated her transgender identity was most likely a motivating factor in the shooting spree.
Add to this the poke in the eye of the recognition of a national day of trans recognition / visibility and all the great contributions the trans community has made to the nation – all the while the trans community continues to call for violence against all opponents.
**
US Marshals assigned to protect Supreme Court justices’ homes following the reversal of Roe v. Wade last year were directed “not” to arrest protesters “unless absolutely necessary,” according to newly revealed documents.
OBSERVATION – This places AG Garland in threat of perjury after testifying before congress that no such orders were given.
**
Our Rights DC, the group behind Saturday’s “Trans Day of Vengeance” protest outside the Supreme Court, has announced that the event has been cancelled due to a “credible threat to life and safety.”
The event, which was originally scheduled for the “Transgender Day of Visibility,” as designated by President Joe Biden, was widely criticized following Monday’s mass shooting in Nashville in which trans-identified 28-year-old Audrey Hale murdered six people, including three children.
“This action will not be taking place Saturday due to a credible threat to life and safety,” Our Rights DC wrote on Twitter. “The safety of our trans community is first priority.”
They went on to suggest that the threat was “the direct result of the flood of raw hatred directed toward the trans community after the Tennessee shooting.”
That cancellation has apparently not affected other protests around the nation with SoCal Antifa and other Far Left activists organizing their Trans Day of Vengeance along with other Transactivism rallies to be held at numerous other large (blue) cities across the country.
**
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs’ press secretary said she is resigning after posting a Twitter post that appeared to suggest violence against “transphobes” following the deadly mass shooting at a Nashville Christian school that left three children and three adults dead.
Hours after the mass shooting took place on Monday, Hobbs press secretary Josselyn Berry wrote: “Us when we see transphobes.” It included a GIF image of an actress pointing two handguns from a scene in the 1980 film, “Gloria.”
OBSERVATION - Forced out due to political damage from the pushback - NOT from the actual abhorrent content of the tweet.
**
The Tennessee and Kentucky state capitol buildings were taken over by radical leftists trying to pressure legislators to adopt stronger gun control as well as not ban gender mutilation of children.
OBSERVATION – Can the left say ‘insurrection’?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Manhattan grand jury came down with 38 felony counts against Trump yesterday before adjourning for a month’s time off. The indictment was a surprise for a number of reasons. For starters, on Wednesday, it was reported that the grand jury would be going on break for a month “largely due to a previously scheduled hiatus.” Secondly, the indications reportedly were that the grand jury was not convinced of the allegations due to the weakness of the evidence
Former President Donald Trump is “likely” to turn himself in to authorities as early as Tuesday of next week, but he won’t be placed in handcuffs at the time of his arrest, according to his lawyer.
OBSERVATION – The US has entered the Banana republic realm with these indictments. Given how the Manhattan DA has twisted the law to gain this makes it questionable if the charges will actually succeed in court. But to the democrat faithful, this is not essential – seen by their bogus impeachments of Trump.
Alan Dershowitz regarding indictment: ‘They’ve Made a Foolish, Foolish Decision’.
The Manhattan DA had better watch how Trump is handled VERY, VERY carefully, as any attempt to frog march trump, etc may well trigger kinetic responses from the right. So far, the Secret Service appears to be on top of all this to prevent any shows.
**
Related - Ron DeSantis just released a statement shortly after Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury, calling the indictment a “weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda” and saying that Florida, Trump’s home state, “will not assist in an extradition request”
OBSERVATION - Better performance by DeSantis given the blow back from earlier statements.
**
The RESTRICT Act, introduced by Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Tom Thune (R-SD), is aimed at blocking or disrupting transactions and financial holdings linked to foreign adversaries that pose a risk to national security, however the language of the bill could be used to give the US government enormous power to punish free speech.
Advertized as attacking Tic Tok, in reality, the RESTRICT Act has very little to do with TikTok and everything to do with controlling online content.
In very specific terms a lot of U.S. websites would be impacted. Why? Because a lot of websites use third-party ‘plug-ins’ or ‘widgets’ or software created in foreign countries to support the content on their site. The “Restrict Act” gives the DNI the ability to tell a website using any “foreign content” or software; that might be engaged in platform communication the U.S Government views as against their interests; to shut down or face a criminal charge. The RESTRICT Act can also be used to punish people using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) if they’re used to access banned websites, and directs the Secretary of Commerce to “identify, deter, disrupt, prevent, prohibit, investigate, or otherwise mitigate” that which is deemed a national security risk associated with technology linked to the above countries.
OBSERVATION – Rather than coerce Twitter, FB, Youtube, etc, the feds can now by declaration go after counter regime narratives with the force of law via the very flexible language of the bill/law.
**
The scandal regarding the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee’s improperly acquiring and using the private military records of Republican candidates for Congress took a turn for the worse as more information has come out.
Well, guess who runs the Veterans Affairs tech department? The DCCC’s chair’s husband.
Coincidence? She improperly acquired–through a “contractor”–the military records of people against whom she was running political campaigns.
Her husband runs the department that controls those records.
OBSERVATION – As with most of the other corruption running through the democrat machine – absolutely nothing will be done – no punishment what so ever.
China –
On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China firmly opposed Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the U.S and her scheduled public appearances. Chinese embassy Charge d’ Affairs Xu Xueyuan, said Tsai’s planned meeting next week with the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy would have significant repercussions and result in a “serious, serious, serious” impact on U.S.-China relations.
OBSERVATION – Standard rhetoric from China but may result in a similar ‘soft’ blockade of Taiwan via surrounding it with exclusion zones for military exercises, an action that occurred after pelosi’s visit to the island.
**
Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he is preparing his country for a future war, and announced a 7.2 percent increase in China’s defense budget, which has doubled over the last decade. He said this at the annual meeting of China’s parliament.
OBSERVATION – This preparation has been obvious given the substantial increase in military production and developments.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Secretary Blinken – “We are deeply concerned over Russia’s announcement it has detained a U.S. citizen journalist. The State Dept’s highest priority is the safety and security of U.S. citizens abroad. If you are a U.S. citizen living or traveling in Russia – please leave immediately.”
Logistics –
According to White House spokesperson John Kirby, Russia is seeking to acquire additional weapons and munitions from North Korea. Kirby added that Russia would likely send a delegation to Pyongyang to work out a weapons-for-food exchange.(FO)
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Putin signed decree on spring military enlistment campaign. 147,000 men this spring, instead of 134,500 last spring. Russia conducts two conscription cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 Russian men.
Russia may use Belarus’ training capacity to support the increase of 13,000 conscripts from previous years.
Additionally, The Kremlin is preparing to mobilize 400,000 soldiers under the guise of “volunteers”. British intelligence notes that Russia wants to organize the campaign as an alleged recruitment of volunteers, and not as a mandatory mobilization.
NOTE – Some analysts suspect that most of this crop of conscripts will not go to Ukraine and that putin will keep them close in the event of threats against his power.
Economic Impact –
The Central Bank of Russia hit by sanctions, deprived of half of its reserves and cut off from transactions with world currencies, ended the year 2022 with a record loss in its history. For the year, the Central Bank lost 721.7 billion rubles (more than $9.3 billion), 27 times more than the year before, according to its annual report, which was earlier sent to the State Duma.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Avdiivka while Bakhmut remained steady with some gains by Russia.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Russian Territory –
Saboteurs have set fire to relay boxes throughout Russia’s Saratov region. This area is a crucial link in Russia’s military transport network, bringing soldiers & supplies from central & eastern Russia to Ukraine, and also acting as a supply route for Engel’s airbase.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same from past postings. Ukraine is having to expend more resources in Bakhmut to maintain the defense, forcing Russia to expend resources that they will desperately need to counter an Ukrainian offensive.
Talks for some kind of a peace settlement are increasing. Right now Russia will not settle for anything less that what they’ve conquered from their campaign. Ukraine will not settle for anything less that all Russians off Ukrainian soil – and that includes Crimea. The success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive will likely set the major conditions for any kind of peace talks.
Finland’s application has now been ratified by all members and we will join NATO.
**
France continues to be rocked by protests and work stoppages/strikes being conducted in opposition to the raising of the retirement age unilaterally by Macron.
Israel –
Netanyahu has said yesterday he plans to appoint Avi Dichter to the role of Defense Minister for the next three months, but he has not yet made a final decision.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
Armenian telegram channel reports that there was a skirmish with Azerbaijani forces in the vicinity of Vardenis last night.
“We have been receiving news since early morning that the Azerbaijani armed forces have invaded Armenian territory several kilometers since yesterday and reached the outskirts of Tegh village” - Armenian news outlet Hraparak.
OBSERVATION – So far just smaller skirmishes with Russia proactively working to diplomatically coerce the Azeri’s to back off. This tactics may not work much longer as the Azeri’s are assessing the weaknesses in the Russian position and capabilities to stop a concerned Azeri invasion.
As noted last week, Dr appt and other fact of life prevented me from getting this out yesterday, so a bit longer trying to catch up.
Of course all heck breaks out in the meanwhile . . . .
Globalism / Great Reset –
China and Brazil have signed a deal to conduct bilateral trade in their own currencies. Experts estimate the trade to be worth about $150.5 billion.
The French company TotalEnergies sold 65,000 tons of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) to China and conducted the sale in yuan instead of dollars.
OBSERVATION - De-dollarizing trade has been a major line of effort by China to mitigate the risk of international sanctions and fallout over action on Taiwan. Chinese efforts to undercut the dollar are also expressed in the BRIC organization (Brazil, Russia, India, China) efforts to trade in currency other than the dollar. This effort is gaining other countries, however, the dollar remains a significant currency of trade, but could get hit hard in the event of a global crisis.
This applies to the global reset because the US economy must be crushed and its global dominance ended in order for the powers that be to execute their “reset” plans. A strong and dominant US will thwart any reset effort.
Wuhan virus –
U.S. Senate votes 68-23 to end COVID-19 “national emergency” that’s been in place since 2020.
Economy –
U.S. money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s, a red flag for the economy and financial markets. Money supply (M2) has now been shrinking year-on-year since December, an unprecedented development in modern times that should make investors sit up and take notice - growth, asset prices and inflation could all weaken.
Current M2 levels are below the pre-wuhan levels.
OBSERVATION - In my understanding, the high M2 was one of the many causes of the skyrocketing inflation rates of the past several years. It took off in response to economic shocks caused by the wuhan shutdown and related chaos, with the fed printing out tons of money. Printing more money made that money worth less. Rapid shrinking could cause the opposet response – a deflationary cycle that could be equally crushing to the economy due to the rapid change in just a short year’s time. Other analysts indicate that money in the system is ‘static’, not moving around – meaning in part that banks are being hesitant in making loans. Dropping M2 could also signal a potential end of the feds increases in the prime rate and could even indicate lowering the prime could be justified. However, the sudden drop suggests that further bumpy ride for the economy as it has been given little time to make adjustments.
Invasion of Illegals –
Record numbers of Chinese being intercepted at the border.
Biden / Harris watch –
No statement of grief for the families affected by the murdering transgender killer. Only a statement on how wonderful transgenders are and what a contribution to the nation they have made.
CW2/Domestic violence –
MSM and other leftist mouthpieces have worked to bury the radical/violent transgender movement as being the ‘victims’ of transgender ‘hate’. Even going as far as erasing that it was a CHRISTIAN school that was attacked and that is was the fault of Christian that their children were killed because of their transphobia. In an exclusive report on Thursday, The New York Post revealed CBS News executives sent out a memo demanding staff purposefully ignore the shooter’s gender identity, even though police indicated her transgender identity was most likely a motivating factor in the shooting spree.
Add to this the poke in the eye of the recognition of a national day of trans recognition / visibility and all the great contributions the trans community has made to the nation – all the while the trans community continues to call for violence against all opponents.
**
US Marshals assigned to protect Supreme Court justices’ homes following the reversal of Roe v. Wade last year were directed “not” to arrest protesters “unless absolutely necessary,” according to newly revealed documents.
OBSERVATION – This places AG Garland in threat of perjury after testifying before congress that no such orders were given.
**
Our Rights DC, the group behind Saturday’s “Trans Day of Vengeance” protest outside the Supreme Court, has announced that the event has been cancelled due to a “credible threat to life and safety.”
The event, which was originally scheduled for the “Transgender Day of Visibility,” as designated by President Joe Biden, was widely criticized following Monday’s mass shooting in Nashville in which trans-identified 28-year-old Audrey Hale murdered six people, including three children.
“This action will not be taking place Saturday due to a credible threat to life and safety,” Our Rights DC wrote on Twitter. “The safety of our trans community is first priority.”
They went on to suggest that the threat was “the direct result of the flood of raw hatred directed toward the trans community after the Tennessee shooting.”
That cancellation has apparently not affected other protests around the nation with SoCal Antifa and other Far Left activists organizing their Trans Day of Vengeance along with other Transactivism rallies to be held at numerous other large (blue) cities across the country.
**
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs’ press secretary said she is resigning after posting a Twitter post that appeared to suggest violence against “transphobes” following the deadly mass shooting at a Nashville Christian school that left three children and three adults dead.
Hours after the mass shooting took place on Monday, Hobbs press secretary Josselyn Berry wrote: “Us when we see transphobes.” It included a GIF image of an actress pointing two handguns from a scene in the 1980 film, “Gloria.”
OBSERVATION - Forced out due to political damage from the pushback - NOT from the actual abhorrent content of the tweet.
**
The Tennessee and Kentucky state capitol buildings were taken over by radical leftists trying to pressure legislators to adopt stronger gun control as well as not ban gender mutilation of children.
OBSERVATION – Can the left say ‘insurrection’?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Manhattan grand jury came down with 38 felony counts against Trump yesterday before adjourning for a month’s time off. The indictment was a surprise for a number of reasons. For starters, on Wednesday, it was reported that the grand jury would be going on break for a month “largely due to a previously scheduled hiatus.” Secondly, the indications reportedly were that the grand jury was not convinced of the allegations due to the weakness of the evidence
Former President Donald Trump is “likely” to turn himself in to authorities as early as Tuesday of next week, but he won’t be placed in handcuffs at the time of his arrest, according to his lawyer.
OBSERVATION – The US has entered the Banana republic realm with these indictments. Given how the Manhattan DA has twisted the law to gain this makes it questionable if the charges will actually succeed in court. But to the democrat faithful, this is not essential – seen by their bogus impeachments of Trump.
Alan Dershowitz regarding indictment: ‘They’ve Made a Foolish, Foolish Decision’.
The Manhattan DA had better watch how Trump is handled VERY, VERY carefully, as any attempt to frog march trump, etc may well trigger kinetic responses from the right. So far, the Secret Service appears to be on top of all this to prevent any shows.
**
Related - Ron DeSantis just released a statement shortly after Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury, calling the indictment a “weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda” and saying that Florida, Trump’s home state, “will not assist in an extradition request”
OBSERVATION - Better performance by DeSantis given the blow back from earlier statements.
**
The RESTRICT Act, introduced by Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Tom Thune (R-SD), is aimed at blocking or disrupting transactions and financial holdings linked to foreign adversaries that pose a risk to national security, however the language of the bill could be used to give the US government enormous power to punish free speech.
Advertized as attacking Tic Tok, in reality, the RESTRICT Act has very little to do with TikTok and everything to do with controlling online content.
In very specific terms a lot of U.S. websites would be impacted. Why? Because a lot of websites use third-party ‘plug-ins’ or ‘widgets’ or software created in foreign countries to support the content on their site. The “Restrict Act” gives the DNI the ability to tell a website using any “foreign content” or software; that might be engaged in platform communication the U.S Government views as against their interests; to shut down or face a criminal charge. The RESTRICT Act can also be used to punish people using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) if they’re used to access banned websites, and directs the Secretary of Commerce to “identify, deter, disrupt, prevent, prohibit, investigate, or otherwise mitigate” that which is deemed a national security risk associated with technology linked to the above countries.
OBSERVATION – Rather than coerce Twitter, FB, Youtube, etc, the feds can now by declaration go after counter regime narratives with the force of law via the very flexible language of the bill/law.
**
The scandal regarding the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee’s improperly acquiring and using the private military records of Republican candidates for Congress took a turn for the worse as more information has come out.
Well, guess who runs the Veterans Affairs tech department? The DCCC’s chair’s husband.
Coincidence? She improperly acquired–through a “contractor”–the military records of people against whom she was running political campaigns.
Her husband runs the department that controls those records.
OBSERVATION – As with most of the other corruption running through the democrat machine – absolutely nothing will be done – no punishment what so ever.
China –
On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China firmly opposed Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the U.S and her scheduled public appearances. Chinese embassy Charge d’ Affairs Xu Xueyuan, said Tsai’s planned meeting next week with the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy would have significant repercussions and result in a “serious, serious, serious” impact on U.S.-China relations.
OBSERVATION – Standard rhetoric from China but may result in a similar ‘soft’ blockade of Taiwan via surrounding it with exclusion zones for military exercises, an action that occurred after pelosi’s visit to the island.
**
Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he is preparing his country for a future war, and announced a 7.2 percent increase in China’s defense budget, which has doubled over the last decade. He said this at the annual meeting of China’s parliament.
OBSERVATION – This preparation has been obvious given the substantial increase in military production and developments.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Secretary Blinken – “We are deeply concerned over Russia’s announcement it has detained a U.S. citizen journalist. The State Dept’s highest priority is the safety and security of U.S. citizens abroad. If you are a U.S. citizen living or traveling in Russia – please leave immediately.”
Logistics –
According to White House spokesperson John Kirby, Russia is seeking to acquire additional weapons and munitions from North Korea. Kirby added that Russia would likely send a delegation to Pyongyang to work out a weapons-for-food exchange.(FO)
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Putin signed decree on spring military enlistment campaign. 147,000 men this spring, instead of 134,500 last spring. Russia conducts two conscription cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 Russian men.
Russia may use Belarus’ training capacity to support the increase of 13,000 conscripts from previous years.
Additionally, The Kremlin is preparing to mobilize 400,000 soldiers under the guise of “volunteers”. British intelligence notes that Russia wants to organize the campaign as an alleged recruitment of volunteers, and not as a mandatory mobilization.
NOTE – Some analysts suspect that most of this crop of conscripts will not go to Ukraine and that putin will keep them close in the event of threats against his power.
Economic Impact –
The Central Bank of Russia hit by sanctions, deprived of half of its reserves and cut off from transactions with world currencies, ended the year 2022 with a record loss in its history. For the year, the Central Bank lost 721.7 billion rubles (more than $9.3 billion), 27 times more than the year before, according to its annual report, which was earlier sent to the State Duma.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Avdiivka while Bakhmut remained steady with some gains by Russia.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Russian Territory –
Saboteurs have set fire to relay boxes throughout Russia’s Saratov region. This area is a crucial link in Russia’s military transport network, bringing soldiers & supplies from central & eastern Russia to Ukraine, and also acting as a supply route for Engel’s airbase.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same from past postings. Ukraine is having to expend more resources in Bakhmut to maintain the defense, forcing Russia to expend resources that they will desperately need to counter an Ukrainian offensive.
Talks for some kind of a peace settlement are increasing. Right now Russia will not settle for anything less that what they’ve conquered from their campaign. Ukraine will not settle for anything less that all Russians off Ukrainian soil – and that includes Crimea. The success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive will likely set the major conditions for any kind of peace talks.
Finland’s application has now been ratified by all members and we will join NATO.
**
France continues to be rocked by protests and work stoppages/strikes being conducted in opposition to the raising of the retirement age unilaterally by Macron.
Israel –
Netanyahu has said yesterday he plans to appoint Avi Dichter to the role of Defense Minister for the next three months, but he has not yet made a final decision.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
Armenian telegram channel reports that there was a skirmish with Azerbaijani forces in the vicinity of Vardenis last night.
“We have been receiving news since early morning that the Azerbaijani armed forces have invaded Armenian territory several kilometers since yesterday and reached the outskirts of Tegh village” - Armenian news outlet Hraparak.
OBSERVATION – So far just smaller skirmishes with Russia proactively working to diplomatically coerce the Azeri’s to back off. This tactics may not work much longer as the Azeri’s are assessing the weaknesses in the Russian position and capabilities to stop a concerned Azeri invasion.
The reason we can just 'print more money' when in a tight spot is we make the world pay for our greed. Just inflate the dollar... Third world hellholes like Haiti can't just 'print more money' because their money's not a reserve currency. China's figured this out...
p
With all that’s happening here and in the world, I wish someone one would just tap me on the shoulder and day ‘April Fools’
Wuhan virus –
Independent statistical studies seem to indicate that since the emergency use rollout of the covid-19 injections, over 2 million excess deaths have been recorded globally. The US suffered 674,954 excess deaths in 2021, and then another 434,520 excess deaths by week 49 of 2022. Europe suffered 375,253 excess deaths in 2021 and 404,6000 excess deaths in 2022. These numbers do not include the many more disabling medical conditions associated with the jab.
OBSERVATION – While eye-opening, these statistical studies are controversial and contested as number gurus argue the basis back and forth. In part because the covid-19 vaccines aren’t the only vector destroying people’s immune systems and killing them off, they do appear to be the driving force. Under current globalist conditions locking down serious studies, we will likely never know the severity of the human loss to the jab.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Transtifa (someone else came up with the term) protests are occurring across the nation as part of the so-called national day of visibility (or vengeance). They continue to swarm state capitol buildings with activists storming the Florida capitol building, demanding rights for trans-identified people. One of the members there led the group, chanting: “Whose schools? Our schools!”
Violence has so far been limited with those considered to be ‘transphobes’ being indentified and assaulted, in many instances while standing in front of police who did nothing. Embedded in these crowds are the Antifa et al faithful who in many cases are the enforcers against perceived ‘transphobes’.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Aftershocks continue to ripple through the political realm with the indictment of Trump on bogus charges. remember the saying a DA once made saying they could indict a ham sandwich.
China –
Nine Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line on Friday carrying out combat readiness patrols, Taiwan’s defence ministry said, days after Beijing threatened retaliation if President Tsai Ing-wen meets U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
OBSERVATION – Chinese intrusions towards Taiwan from both aircraft and naval vessels are on a daily basis now. Now analysts note that many of the incursions are following potential invasion routes, tipping China’s hand on potential plans should they attempt an invasion.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
One year ago, Russian forces being thwarted in their attempt to seize Kyiv were driven out of the northern portions of Ukraine with survivors being redeployed to the southern and eastern portions of occupied Ukraine to try to bolster the attack in those regions. With this withdrawl, Russian forces committed the Bucha massacre, during which Ukraine says retreating Russian forces killed hundreds of civilians in and around their homes in the suburb outside Kyiv.
Moscow considers the US course as the main source of risks for its security and international peace - a new concept of Russian foreign policy, signed by Putin
Logistics –
White House says it has new evidence that Russia is seeking an arms-for-food deal with North Korea. Washington previously declassified intelligence revealing that Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group has received weapons from North Korea to aid in its fighting in Ukraine.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Avdiivka while Bakhmut remained steady with some gains by Russia as Wagner based forces have been pushing in from the northeast corner of the city towards the city center.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Russia has been pursuing its winter offensive to capture the Donbas since December 2022 with only minor gains. For example, Russian gains in Ukraine for March are presented on the map at the link. The red dot represents the 70 sq km Russia has been able to capture for the month.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsl1TYJWwAEb_PK?format=jpg&name=medium
As you can see, Russia’s offensive has been underwhelming considering the men and resources they’ve poured into the effort.
Iran –
An IRGC advisor and officer, Milad Heydari, was killed in the alleged Israeli airstrike on Damascus two days ago, according to Iranian media
**
Authorities in Iran have been making clear their determination to enforce the compulsory hijab on women.
It comes after months of protests demanding an end to the restriction.
A hardline Iranian MP has issued an ultimatum to the judiciary to come up with measures to put a stop to women flouting the rules on headscarves, within the next 48 hours.
The mass protests that erupted across Iran in September have largely been quelled for now by brute force.
OBSERVATION – This is but one of the many issues boiling beneath the surface that may well re-erupt in more protests as the regime oppresses the population.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
On March 31, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces violated the ceasefire in the eastern & southwestern direction of the contact line by using small arms & RPG-7 grenade launchers. In the area of Nakhijevanik village, the Azerbaijani side opened fire on the civilians working in the yard.
Total pain yesterday trying to filter out the abundant ‘April fools’ news items from real news.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Trade between India and Malaysia is now able to be settled with Indian Rupees, the India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced in a statement Saturday.
This move strikes a blow to the hegemony US dollar. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the statement from the MEA reads.
OBSERVATION – As noted with BRICS, global movement is going away from the dollar as the global reserve currency. While the volume of these new exchanges are not substantial, they are growing. The WEF has to crash the US economy in order to ‘reset’, and a global economy based on the dollar is an obstacle to that reset.
Economy –
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), staring down nearly $23 billion in outstanding costs following recent bank failures, is deliberating shifting much of that financial burden onto the nation’slargest banks.
Bloomberg reported that the FDIC is expected to propose a “special assessment” in May primarily focused on recuperating some of the $128 billion deposit insurance fund that has taken a significant blow since the collapse of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. In shifting much of this financial burden from community lenders onto larger banks such as JPMorgan and Chase & Co. and Bank of America, which already pay billions of dollars into the Deposit Insurance Fund.
OBSERVATION – Expect higher fees and penalties from these banks as they will pass these expenses on to their customers.
Biden / Harris watch –
Kamala Harris tells business leaders in Zambia:
“Many of you at this table, and the folks that you work with, have a history of doing work on this continent.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
More violence at Transgender ‘visibility’ rallies directed towards opposition groups. The biden regime has yet to acknowledge the attack against the Christian school by a transgender individual continuing to support the narrative of how oppressed the trans community is.
OBSERVATION - The transtifa (term I thing Junita Broderick recently coined) push toward violent actions is serving the purpose of generating a response on the opposite end of the spectrum. The marxists are seeking to cause an event where they can toss the constitution completely aside and crackdown on the right. An incident between Transtifa and elements like the “patriot boys” (largely led by federal agent provocateurs ) would serve the purpose well. Also remember Antifa will be in the mix as well on the side of the trans agitators. Rising transactivism my well break open into broader violence this summer.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
**
Concerns being raise about the substantial increase of Chinese men pushing across the southern border. Some think they may be elements of unconventional warfare forces that would conduct sabotage attacks in the US in conjunction with an invasion of Taiwan. The men are unaccompanied and of military age.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is reportedly moving towards the eastern Med & a Squadron of A-10 aircraft have sent to the region, most likely in response to Iran and Iranian backed militia attacks on US forces in eastern Syria.
POLITICAL FRONT –
This next week, Trump is reportedly scheduled to report to the Manhattan court house to turn himself in for arraignment. Extra security is reportedly being coordinated.
Meanwhile, the leaked grand jury results may have someone in hot water - either in the DA’s office or someone on the grand jury itself. Unauthorized release of a grand jury result is a felony offense and would provide one more piece in the foundation of Trump’s legal team’s effort to have any charges tossed.
The DA is also in hot water from congress as it appears he used federal money as part of his efforts to get Trump indicted. As such, he is subject to congressional oversight and has been called to testify before House committees.
NOTE - If the DA tries to make a show of this, it will backfire bigly and may well trigger a counter move by some Trump supporters. Any peaceful pro-Trump protest could be accosted by Antifa et al and turn real ugly fast.
North/South Korea –
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates a high level of activity around the complex, including the Experimental Light Water Reactor.
OBSERVATION – Analysts note the activity has in the past been commonly associated with the production of weapons grade plutonium and may indicate efforts to conduct a new test in the future or material to create warhead – or both. The underground test site has been refurbished / repaired and is capable of another test on little notice.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast. The failed offensive has cost the Russian army tens (hundred) thousands of deal/wounded and massive equipment losses.
**
One year ago today: two Ukrainian helicopters evaded air-defense to enter Russian territory over Belgorod and strike a fuel depot causing a huge fire.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia police elements have been closely screening vehicles crossing the bridge leaving Crimea for Russia, creating large traffic jams.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian Intelligence is reporting that the number of Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea have Increased from 3 to at least 12 within the last 24 hours with 3 Submarines also on active deployment, potentially indicating that the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles towards Ukraine is possible in the near future.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . Weather has slowed some action down due to heavy snow. Wagner forces continue to press toward the city center from the northeastern corner of the city.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same struggle in the east with Russia making small gains at a high cost. The failure of Gerasimov’s directed offensive to seize Donbas by the end of March is pretty much absent from the Russian news cycle, but rest assured that his mortal enemy – Wagner Group – has not lost that point and will likely use it in the future to leverage more support from putin. Perhaps it is the reason Wagner has redoubled its efforts at Bakhmut.
NOTING the rumored deployment of Kalibr capable sea vessels – its about time for another Russian missile barrage. Also of note, Russian milbloggers are decrying the failure of Russia’s attack on the Ukraine power grid noting that power is restored and Ukraine is once again exporting electricity.
Israel –
See Syria below on airstrikes.
**
Political turmoil regarding judicial reform is still simmering but not exploding out of control as both sides make efforts to sit down and work issues out.
Iran –
See Syria on renewed Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and supported militias facilities.
Iraq -
Deployment of additional USAF assets (A-10s) to the region will be staged out of Iraq, so expect additional Iranian militia activity against US facilities and supporting Iraqi elements.
Syria -
Reports of Israeli attacks on Ad-Dabaa Airfield, T4, an airfield near the village of Al-Qasir on the Lebanese border, Ash-Shairat Airfield. At least one strike was also reported on Hezbollah training bases and warehouses in Syria. The IRGC is putting its forces on alert in Syria. According to available information, at least 5 soldiers of the Syrian regime forces were killed during the attacks.
This is the third night of Israeli raids on different locations in Syria, hurting Iranian networks. IRGC had already threatened a response to airstrikes earlier this week. This is the third night of Airstrikes in Syria by Israel this week targeting IRGC backed militia activities.
OBSERVATION – Israel is continuing to pressure Iran and Hezbollah’s efforts to preposition assets for an eventual strike on Israel. Iran has also been expanding its efforts to fill the vaccum of Russian influence in the region. Expect Iran to launch some kind of an attack, possibly against US forces in eastern Syria soon in retaliation.
Misc of Note –
Massive tornado outbreaks in the south and midwest will likely continue as prime tornado season hit. Folks in tornado alley need to make plans and preparation as the season has already been very ugly and has spawned some very large storms.
Economic impacts will be rippling across the national economy as resources are directed to the affected regions and those regions become unable to ship their items elsewhere due to the destruction. The insurance industry will be increasingly hard pressed with the massive claims that will be coming in.
This is shaping up to be quite the week politically here in the US and any effort for the leftists to try to embarrass Trump will likely boomerang on them. Even the democrat base is not amused by the kangaroo court in NYC.
Economy –
Saudi Arabia says it will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. The move would likely raise oil prices, perhaps as much as to the $100/barrel price forecast earlier for summer.
The production cut as caused prices have by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began.
OBSERVATION – Oil consumption typically decreases as a result of a global recession and this reduction may be the OPEC + cartel trying to get a head of the game and cash in at the same time on the front end.
Invasion of Illegals –
“The fate of a Texas man remains unknown after a team of cartel gunmen took him out of a house in Laredo, Texas, and crossed him into the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas. The victim reportedly bragged about stealing $50,000 from CDN” -Breitbart
OBSERVATION – This is the latest in Mexican cartels crossing over into the US and exerting their influence in our country. No information on how the cartel got members into the country to execute the kidnap, nor how they were able to smuggle him out of the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden - “We need more money to plan for the 2nd pandemic.
There’s going to be another pandemic. We have to think ahead.”
OBSERVATION – Did biden just tip the hand of the globalists?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump announces he is going to NYC today and will report to the Manhattan courthouse to be arraigned tomorrow. Strong rumors that the presiding judge will slap a 30 day gag-order on him.
Walk carefully.
In related - assault on Trump from on a second axis. Special Counsel Jack Smith has “new and significant evidence” of potential Trump obstruction in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, according to a leak to The Washington Post.
OBSERVATION - Not satisfied to go after Trump on one avenue, the left continues its attack on this axis as well.
**
From today’s Forward Observer posting is a very good summary of the so called “Restrict Act” that claims to target TicTok for closure in the US. It is far more. Citing it since they explain it so well – better than other sources I’ve been reading -
“The Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology (RESTRICT) Act will require the federal government to act against individuals and corporations deemed to pose a threat to U.S. national security. The White House and some legislators say the bill is necessary to protect data privacy and impede the spread of propaganda from China. Still, critics label the bill the PATRIOT Act 2.0. The bill is a broad expansion of executive power, imposes criminal penalties for what could be protected speech, and does not actually ban TikTok.
What you need to know:
• The RESTRICT Act is a broad expansion of executive power over the internet that attempts to circumvent oversight and accountability through the language of the bill: “Actions taken by the President and the Secretary, and the findings of the President and the Secretary, under this Act shall not be subject to administrative review or judicial review in any Federal court.”
• Proponents of the bill claim it is not intended to target individuals, but the language of the bill delineates individuals from foreign adversary-controlled technology companies and imposes criminal penalties on individuals for circumventing restrictions on “transactions” with banned apps and technologies which could include protected free speech activities.
• Enforcement of the criminal and civil penalties would require an escalation of internet surveillance of American citizens.
• Cryptocurrency proponents claim the bill could ban cryptocurrencies, and internet freedom advocates, including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, say the bill undermines the rights to free speech and association and could criminalize the use of technologies like Virtual Private Networks (VPN).
• Despite officials waving off concerns that the RESTRICT Act will only target corporations, widespread concerns remain that the bill would be used to pursue action against individual U.S. citizens.
• The House companion bill has not appeared yet, and the Senate bill is still in committee.”
OBSERVATION – This act is dangerous to American Freedom. Called a the Patriot Act 2.0, it clearly is a grave threat to our nation’s freedom.
**
Progressive and supposedly moderate politicians are proposing a “Trans Bill of Rights” that would do the following:
- Force states to allow child mutilation
- Force little boys and girls to use the same bathroom
- Force teachers and students to use preferred pronouns
- Allow thought reform propaganda into schools
- Use the federal government to force states to allow child mutilation
It would amend to the 1964 civil rights act to make these directives.
OBSERVATION – The flood of sewage on the Transtifa agenda is totally incredible for volume and support by the powers that be. I really don’t think it has a chance in the House, but at this stage, anything goes.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
The United Nations Security Council rotates new members in as the president of the council on a monthly basis. This month it was Russia’s turn, making Vladimir Putin the president.
**
Russian Mil-Blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was assassinated when a figurine containing 200g TNT exploded next to him. Aka Maksim Fomin, Tatarsky was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating Russia’s info space since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
Darya Trepova, a resident of St. Petersburg, has been detained on suspicion of murder, Interfax reported. Other reports indicate that the police are looking for Trepova’s husband, Dmitry Rylov. One report I read called Trepova a known anti-war activist. The investigation has grounds to believe that Trepova brought a box with a bust of Tatarsky with an explosive device in it to the Prigozhin friendly cafe.
Moscow intrigue takes over from here. Many consider the act assisted by insider information. As I’ve noted in my past posts, there has been considerable Russian infightings ongoing. Is this a warning to Wagner’s Prigozhin?. Tatarsky was a critic of Shoigu.
Another alternative is it was an Ukraine operation. Not as intriguing as the whole Kremlin/Moscow angle.
As I said, the Wagner – MoD feud is a knife fight and in this case has potentially bubbled to the surface.
**
RUMINT-
Russian milbloggers are fretting that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut & Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between Orthodox Easter on Apr. 16 and Soviet Victory Day on May 9.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . In Bakhmut, unconfirmed reports that Ukranian forces have pulled back out of the eastern half of the city and are reforming on the western side of the rail line that goes N-S through the town. This action straightens out it line of defense and gives them flexability. Classic mobile defensive operation. Not much remaining in the eastern half of the city for Russian forces to utilize – the town is generally been leveled from the 6 months plus of fighting.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Russian Territory –
An explosion in a cafe in St. Petersburg where Propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky was holding an event. He is reportedly killed and six others were wounded.
OUTLOOK –
The Ukranian drawback of forces in Bakhmut is not a rout of the forces, but a designed defense in depth and troops apparently have been pulled back in an orderly manner. The new positions will reset the meat grinder for Russia as it has to face fresh defensive positions that haven’t been eroded away by incessant Russian artillery fire. This fight has a long, long way to go, especially considering that it has taken Russia over 6 months to get this far.
The only other are Russia is seeing any success is the area around Avdiivka where they are driving past a direct assault on the town, bypassing and trying to seal off resupply/reinforcement routes to the town from the west – northwest. Avdiivka has been a frontline city since 2014 and has been another meat grinder for Ukraine against Russia.
Will Ukraine kick off its offensive between April 16 – May 9th? I would be inclineded to look more towards the May 9th end of this suspected window. Ukraine mud will work against the home team just as it has against Russia. Their combined arms tactics necessitate the ability to maneuver and that maneuver is hampered currently. Such a window puts a propaganda ‘fear’ against the Russian forces.
Currently, it still doesn’t appear Russia has significantly reinforced its units in Ukraine with men or material and with the exception of the great fear of an attack towards Crimea have spread a lot of their forces laterally along the whole front. Ball will soon be in Ukraine’s court and we’ll just have to wait and see what they have up their sleeves.
Finland will officially join NATO tomorrow. The President will travel to Brussels and attend the accession ceremony at Nato HQ. Finland has a land border with Russia of around 800 miles long. It will be the 31st member and the 7th NATO state with a Baltic Sea coast.
**
Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats are tracking to come in third place in Finland’s elections with the center-right National Coalition Party projected to win. Now they will get the first shot to form a coalition with the The Finns, a right-wing populist party dedicated to stopping the migrant invasion.
Israel –
Israeli warplanes launched yet another attack on Syria early on Sunday, striking a number of targets in the central Syrian city of Homs from Lebanese airspace, Syrian state-news outlet SANA reported. The strikes resulted in the wounding of five Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers and the infliction of some material damages.
**
IDF helicopters and fighter jets were scrambled Sunday night, after an unidentified aircraft crossed into Israeli airspace from Syria. The aircraft was monitored by the IAF throughout the incident, an IDF spokesperson said. The aircraft apparently was a drone and was reportedly brought down using an EW-anti drone jammer system.
Democrat 'elites' are totalitarians... they want another show trial.
But I guess there might be everyday democrats who aren't thugs... do you have proof?
Thanks for all the hard work you put into these posts.
Impending indictment circus of Trump is sucking most of the oxygen out of my news feeds.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Increasing concerns being raised over the stability of Deutches Bank and the high level of bad loans and derivatives. DB has been closely watched for several years now as a potential source of economic collapse for Germany and the rest of Europe. Gotta have an economic collapse in order to RESET and build back better.
Economy –
Gasoline prices are quickly spiking to the $4/gallon level following the cuts in OPEC+ production.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden regime has said nothing about the killing of the 6 in the Christian School. Only thing out of their mouths are how endangered the Trans community is.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Los Angeles Board of Supervisors is deciding to “depopulate and decarcerate the Los Angeles County Jails?” This in the face of gang violence is up; murders of homeless people have skyrocketed; and Los Angeles has a violent crime rate higher than 90% of U.S. cities.
OBSERVATION – Hegelian dialect – create a problem, then propose the solution. Part of the solution is disarming Americans for promise of ‘security and safety’ along with a potential nationalized police force, replacing local ones. It is almost getting to the point of having to build a wall around parts of LA just to contain the criminal violence.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon says USS George HW Bush carrier was repositioned “as a precaution” due to “increased attacks from IRGC affiliated groups targeting our service members across across the area...but it’s still in the purview of EUCOM.”
**
The Chinese balloon that flew over the US earlier this year managed to gather intelligence from military bases for days before it was shot down, US media report.
The balloon was able to transmit data to Beijing in real time, NBC News reported, citing US officials. The craft picked up electronic signals rather than taking pictures, according to one official quoted by the network.
The White House didn’t confirm the report.
OBSERVATION – Well DUH!
**
The Philippine government on Monday identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China.
OBSERVATION – These new bases are in key positions near Taiwan and the South China Sea and China is really upset about them.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Donald Trump is expected to report this morning to the Manhattan court house to be charged with as many as 34 felony counts involving alleged falsification of business records, a source briefed on the procedures for the arraignment has said, according to Yahoo News.
However, reports are that Trump will not be cuffed, put in a cell, or even subject to a mug shot, though these are said to be typical procedures in many white-collar cases.
It is still uncertain if the judge will attempt to place a gag order on him.
OBSERVATION – The Manhattan DA is treading on very thin ice here. He knows the charges are bogus and any miscue to try to allow a spectacle of the matter will blowback on him doubly.
China –
China’s Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent three warships into the East China Sea Monday for a series of live-fire drills. The drills were in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s presence in the U.S. ahead of a scheduled meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). A PLA spokesperson said more military drills could take place if Tsai follows through with her plans to meet with McCarthy. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This is not unlike the response from pelosi’s visit last year. These seem a bit more restrained than last time though, potentially reflecting Chinese seeking not to have the push back from other nations and give them more reason to join in regional alliances against it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . In Bakhmut, reports that Ukranian forces have pulled back out of the eastern half of the city and are reforming on the western side of the rail line that goes N-S through the town have not been confirmed. What is still apparent is that Wagner has launched a renewed attack on the city center and though is gaining ground, they are bleeding bad. .
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 17 Shahed drones launched by Russian army overnight. Odessa was one of the principle targets.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Crimean front ———
Ukranian drone attack reported at Russian military base in Armyansk, Northern Crimea. This is at the narrow ‘neck’ of the peninsula where it connects to Ukraine proper.
OUTLOOK –
Russia continues to double down on the direct assault on Bakhmut – or should I say Wagner. Not sure at this stage if the MoD is directing Wagner operations or if they are doing so independently . They appear to have thrown away the encirclement tactic to resume direct, frontal assaults. The front line is a mess with Ukrainian counter attacks. One reporter called the scene one of bullets and bombs flying in all directions. There are some indicators that Ukraine “pull backs” may be luring Wagner into pre planned kill zones where they are destroyed, allowing Ukraine to retake the terrain.
Anticipate more bloody days in Bakhmut for both sides, but the losses for Russia/Wagner are getting to a strategic level – they are losing good quality soldiers, ones necessary to counter the Ukrainian offensive when the hammer strikes.
Russian launch of another limited Iranian drone strike overnight is the second in about a week. Numbers in the upper teens – very limited in comparison to when they were originally brought on line. Iran seems to have gotten their supply line in to Russia, though very limited. Second thing to note is that they drones are being used separate from Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. Back when Russia was having relative success in taking down the Ukraine power grid, large numbers of Iranian drones were launched to saturate air defenses, increasing the probability that the more powerful cruise and ballistic missiles would get thorough. It appears that Russian has abandoned that tactic as well as abandoned the strategic attack that was getting success (for once).
Syria -
Meetings underway in Moscow between the deputy foreign ministers of Russia, Syria, Iran, and Turkey, marking the highest level of talks between the four countries on the Syrian conflict.
OBSERVATION – Most likely being centered on activity in N Syria and trying to deconflict as Turkey has launched limited ground invasions against Kurds in the region and have shown no reluctance to engage any Russian/Syrian/Iranian elements that they deem to be in their way.
**
Israeli aviation carried out an air attack with bursts of missiles from the Golan Heights, targeting the vicinity of Damascus and the southern region. Believed to be Iranian and Hezbollah facilities. This would be the 4th attack in a row, and may also be directed at taking out IRGC leadership as two of the previous strikes have.
Our world has rapidly changed for the worse as the US drifts into banana republic wastelands. Very evident that the left has tossed any regards for the constitution and rule of law completely aside and replaced it with the ends justifies the means mentality.
Economy –
The number of U.S. job openings in February fell to a 21-month low, while orders for manufactured goods fell for the third time in the past four months.
OBSERVATION – Our economy is suffering from many things – wuhan aftershocks and now the monetary policies of the Fed. These indicators are point to a definite recesson, and one that wont be very nice to deal with.
**
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Prospective Plantings report, farmers intend to plant fewer acres of spring wheat than they have since 1972. The report also noted that soybean acreage was up 0.1% and corn acreage was up 4% from last year. This is reportedly due to continued drought conditions in some areas of the wheat producing regions combined with increased demands for biofuels.
Biden / Harris watch –
See Saudi Arabia re: the Crown Prince’s take on biden.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Things were relatively calm in NYC with the Trump indictments, a lot of shouting. If the left sees their ‘golden ticket’ morphing into a fake, it is hard to say how they will take it.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Yesterday’s circus in Manhattan has only made the case for prosecutorial misconduct. Now released, knowledgeable folks on both sides of the political spectrum were banging their collective heads against the wall over the gross incompetence of moving forward with these ‘indictments’. One of the most significant common points were that there were no laws actually being cited as being broken. NOT A SINGLE FEDERAL OR STATE LAW WAS CITED AS BEING BROKEN. The DA claimed that there was no need to do so – that it was Trumps intent that mattered. The Constitution and existing laws blow that argument apart.
Robert Barnes notes –
“The indictment is legally insufficient on its face. New York state law does not make it a crime to influence an election. Federal law does not make it a crime either. Maybe that’s why no law is actually cited in the indictment. Nor are the facts sufficient.”
Andrew McCarthy, a senior fellow at National Review Institute and a former assistant U.S. attorney notes –
“So I think this indictment—even before you get to the statute of limitations and whether he’s got jurisdiction to enforce federal law—I would dismiss it on its face because it fails to state a crime. Here it fails to state a crime 34 times!””
Second part of the circus is the grossly bias of the presiding judge as a hard core democrat with a very politically active, hard core lefty daughter. I think the judge did pull back from the third rail by not issuing a gag order but ‘warning’ either side to watch their rhetoric (though the DA disregarded that in his totally laughable press conference).
Make no doubt about it, yesterday took the rails off and now anything goes. Remember when the democrat senate took the filibuster rule off for a vote -they opened the door for republicans to do the same. If Democrats want to play the part of a banana republic – its time the republicans grow a pair and do the same with equal and greater passion and determination.
China –
“China does not recognize Crimea as Russian, like other territories of Ukraine “included” in the Russian Federation” - Chinese Ambassador to the EU via NYT.
OBSERVATION – China now knows that it will own Russia if it doesn’t already. Even so, this is a very revealing comment from Russia’ so called strong ally.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia and the United States are now in a phase of hot conflict, - said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
RUMINT-
Rumblings that the MoD is looking to put Wagner Grp forces out to pasture. Putin reportedly now seeing Wagner as a serious threat to his power.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Gen. Rustam Muradov led RU troops into the fiasco at Vuhledar, losing 2 brigades of marines, 103 vehicles and 36 tanks. He’s now been fired from his post as commander in Ukraine- 7 months after his appointment.
Economic Impact –
Major Russian bank VTB reports $7.7 bn loss due to sanctions
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian milbloggers are saying that the fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut is stalling out. In Bakhmut, though Russia has been able over the past several months to claw away the eastern half of the city, Ukraine remains strongly entrenched in the western half. This in spite of this weeks attempt by Wagner forces to overwhelm the city center with significant numbers of troops.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same with fighting still focused on Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Intensity has fluxuated on a daily basis, so claims that the Russian efforts in those locations will need to be evaluated to see if the observations of Russian milbloggers and other sources are correct.
Noted articles regarding the massive superiority in the amount of Russia artillery and that will seal the fate of any Ukraine offensive. The writers of those articles are likely basing their information on year old information. Russian artillery is no where near the 10:1 or so advantaged it had during the early part of the war. Ukraine has seriously attritted it through a far more effective counterbattery fire system, more successful seeking out artillery positions and hitting them, Russian attrition due to poor maintenance, poor equipment standards (poor grade of steel in tubes, resulting in short life and failures) and the big one of constant pressure on and destruction of ammo depots. Russian guns still can bring local overwhelming fires, when coordinated and ammo available. Recent action show that lack of tubes and shells has had an impact. Russia can now only support with its steel curtain approach to offensive action like at Bakhmut across a much, much narrower front and limits the use of artillery along other sectors of the front. This in comparison to last summer’s Russian action at Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk where the artillery steel curtain method allowed Russian forces to advance on a much broader axis.
More evidence is that Russia is using older and older ammo stocks, in some instances so old that there is nearly a 60% plus failure rate (non-explosions).
One other thing being observed is that Russian troops appear to be severely lacking anti-tank systems as simple as the RPG-7 line. This has been very evident from posted videos of Ukrainian tanks pulling right up to trench lines occupied with Russian and firing into them with out fear of destruction from AT weapons. Very similar with follow-up APC direct firing into same trenches from close range while supporting ground attacks. This does not bode well for Russia when the Ukraine offensive begins as such shortages will permit these heavy guns to blast Russian fortified positions at point blank range with nothing to stop them with. Not sure Russian planner have these shortages on their radar screen at all.
NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Secretary of State Blinken on what he described as a historic day as the alliance prepares to welcome Finland as its 31st member state
Israel –
Hamas launched rockets into Israel in protest of police actions on the temple mount. In response to rocket fire, the IDF struck weapon manufacturing sites and a storage site belonging to Hamas, in addition to a military compound used for training terrorist operatives. IDF tanks also struck military posts along the security fence.
OBSERVATION – Pretty common tit for tat that doesn’t look like it will escalate.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince says he doesn’t care to please the U.S. anymore just weeks after he said he does ‘not care’ what Biden thinks of him.
OBSERVATION – Biden has regressed US foreign policy back multiple decades. Not that we should kiss the hem of the crown prince, but leadership and respect that have been earned by presidents over the years has been tossed aside under biden.
Trump makes the monsters show their true colors... We still have time .
Globalism / Great Reset –
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in his annual shareholder letter Tuesday that the government may need to seize private property to advance clean energy initiatives.
Dimon discussed the need to quickly begin investing in solar projects and other green initiatives and suggested that the government should use eminent domain to seize property for those projects.
“At the same time, permitting reforms are desperately needed to allow investment to be done in any kind of timely way. We may even need to evoke [sic] eminent domain – we simply are not getting the adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives,” Dimon wrote.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/04/05/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-eminent-domain-green-energy/
OBSERVATION – Coming soon to a community, farm or ranch near you.
**
The CDC had said in documents and public statements that the goal of the new codes, in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) system, was “to track people who are not immunized or only partially immunized.”
The CDC now says it does not have access to the data, but that health care systems do.
“The ICD codes were implemented in April 2022, however the CDC does not have any data on the codes and does not track this information,” CDC officials said in the emails.
CDC also stated that the WHO is the source of the creation of these codes.
OBSERVATION – Another step in the global tracking of individuals under the banner of the wuhan plandemic. Future Orwellian applications are more than readily apparent.
**
According to reports quoting Russian lawmaker Alexander Babakov, the BRICS nations are in the process of creating a new medium for payments – established on a strategy that “does not defend the dollar or euro”. He reportedly indicated that the new currency would be secured by gold and other commodities such as rare-earth elements.
OBSERVATION – This could potentially impact the US dollar in about 3-5 years according to some ‘experts’, short a major, global event. The dollar has been the reserve currency of the world for a very long time and has been the leverage for many sanctions pushed by the US in recent years. Both Russia (facing current sanctions) and China (facing potential sanctions) are laying the ground work to mitigate sanctions. This will also challenge the US domination of the global commerce. Were the US dollar to lose its reserve currency status, an equivalent magnitude 10 earthquake would hit the US economy. Biden’s handling of foreign policy has accelerated the growing BRICS problem.
**
The Fed just announced it will introduce its “FedNow” Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in July. The Fed will initially limit its CBDC to interbank transactions .
OBSERVATION – Remember the phrase from over a decade ago -INCRAMENTALISM – here it is at work. The old frog in a pot. In this case, the fed is structuring the system for relatively quick switchover to the full fledged CBDC being forced on all persons for all transactions, with the eventual folding in of social credit score and programmed ‘allowable’ spending.
Wuhan virus –
See non-vax’d tracking under Globalism / Great Reset above.
CW2/Domestic violence –
DOJ admits that of the 13 Proud Boys involved with J6, eight or more of them were paid by the FBI to provide the government information about the group. The FBI was the majority of Proud Boys - only 5 are being prosecuted. The DoJ also admits that another 40 undercover agents were with the Proud Boys on J6 - from HSI - Homeland Security Investigations. The vast majority of the group was paid by the government as either W2 employees or CHS.
OBSERVATION – Being posted here under CW2 because it is evidence of the regime working to ferment events that would permit them to crack down on politicial opposition. Every and I mean EVERY patriot group must take measures to identify these agent provocateurs and remove them from their organization and neutralize any potential acts at rallies or other events.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
From June 12-23, NATO will execute “Air Defender 2023” with 10,000 troops and 220 aircraft across Europe. This exercise will be the largest the alliance has ever conducted and will include newly added Finland and Sweden. The Air National Guard from 35 U.S. states will send 100 aircraft and 2000 troops to participate.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More reverberations from the Trump indictment. Most interesting on my radar are DAs from red states looking into how they can apply the same to democrats.
China –
Speaker McCarthy met with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. China responded by sailing the Shandong Carrier Strike Group near Taiwan and demanding to board and inspect all vessels in the Taiwan Strait for the next three days. The exercise launched by China involves the deployment of forces to two zones to the east of Taiwan. There is nothing to prevent the Chinese from extending that period. Taiwan said it would refuse all boarding requests and contact the Taiwanese Coast Guard.
OBSERVATION – This is a serious escalation of pressure by China. The threat to board and inspect is a direct aggression not only towards Taiwan but internation shipping in general – much of which passes through the region. This is a borderline blockaide. Should the Taiwan CG respond to a forced boarding, shooting could commence.
The Nimitz CSG is currently exercising with S Korean forces and could be redeployed to the Taiwan region on short notice. This could turn into a game of chicken, one that biden may likely blink.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
French diplomatic source: Macron urged Xi not to provide arms to Russia, Xi said it was not his war
**
The head of Russia’s private Wagner militia said on Thursday that Ukrainian forces were not abandoning the city of Bakhmut but that, even if they did, he would need more support from the regular military before trying to advance further.
NOTE - One needs to hold this guy’s assessments and comments out at arms length. He is locked in a behind the doors knife fight with the MoD and he is leveraging his statement - essentially saying Wagner could win the war if the MoD would provide all the support it desires. Also note - Early in the war, internal Russian fighting for resources were one of many reasons their logistics go to constipated and couldn’t resupply their forces. See that they haven’t learned this lesson.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut still appears to be stalling ou for Russia. Zelensky yesterday said they were monitoring the situation in the city and will pull forces back should the situation require. Bakhmut is strategically important to Ukraine because of Russian doggedness and drive to capture the city – to gain a PR victory – because it is such a Russian meatgrinder. Clearly, Zelensky is weighing if the defense is reaching a point of diminishing returns as it is an economy of force operation and reinforcing it would take away forces being mustered for his offensive.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to increase when weather improves. Delays in Russia’s pressing of attacks takes away from its initiative/momentum and gives Ukraine a chance to regroup and reorganize.
Reported removal of Mig-31K from Belarus (see below) has interesting implementations regarding if Russia has sufficient “hypersonic” missiles these air craft are designed to carry.
Speaking of missile strikes, the likelihood of a new barrage is increasing and perhaps they will try targeting assembly areas of the units Ukraine is putting together for their offensive. Ukraine must execute excellent OPSEC and not get lax.
Belarus -
Russia reportedly moving all 3 Mig-31K from Belarus back to Russia
Israel –
A barrage of about 34 (100?) missiles were launched from southern Lebanon in 10 minutes at N Israel overnight by Islamic factions (PIJ likely included) not technically affiliated with Hezebollah. Israeli news sources state that most of the rockets fired from Lebanon are Katyusha and Grad models. A few rockets were also reported being fired from Gaza towards S Israel.
IDF Artillery fired retaliatory strikes. Northern airspace has been reportedly closed. At this stage Israeli airstrikes have not occurred nor have been ruled out. Hezebollah has warned against any retaliatory airstrikes.
UNIFIL have ordered their members to enter bomb shelters on the border.
Lebanon govt says it will open an investigation, in cooperation with UNIFIL, to find out who is responsible for launching the rockets.
OBSERVATION – Today is the start of Passover – so the timing is clear. Hamas and PIJ elements in Gaza are quiet, allowing affiliated groups in Lebanon to do their dirty work.
In 2021 and 2022 rockets were launched from Lebanon into Israel. They do so under a limited umbrella of protection by Hezebollah who lets nothing happen without their approval. However, it seems this is the largest attack from Lebanon by non-Hezebollah forces to date.
The current use of artillery vs air strikes suggests that Israel is not trying to escalate the situation. Primary since this is Passover. Were this any other time, I suspect Israel would be more aggressive in its retaliation.
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The Foreign Minister’s meeting with his Saudi counterpart was positive, and it can be said that official relations between the two countries have been activated.
OBSERVATION – This is one of the many biden foreign policies “mistakes” (I don’t think they are mistakes, but deliberate) that are making the world a less safer place.
**
Student poisonings have resumed in Iran, indicating that the regime has failed to take the necessary security measures to permanently prevent these attacks.
OBSERVATION – The imans in Tehran mouthed a relaxation of policies, but now are resuming giving the blind eye to hardliners in their group to continue to attack young women as a way to oppress them. This will only add more fuel to the fire when the populace finally explodes.
Lebanon -
See Islamic radical factions firing rockets on Israel below.
Saudi Arabia –
See Iran on restored diplomatic relations.
Mexico -
Mexican president essentially called the US a “Banana Republic” in regards to the politically inspired indictments of Trump
Misc of Note –
There have been at least 478 tornado reports across 25 states so far this year and that’s double the average for this point in a year.
OBSERVATION – We are transitioning out of a prolonged La Nina cycle towards a potential El Nino. The weather will be unsettled for the year across the country. Be ready and situationally aware.
Also, with substantially above average snowpack across the west, increasing concerns of spring flooding are going up. If you are on a flood plain – get your act together now for potential evacuation.
p
Happy Good Friday to all Christians out there. Today we recognize the great price paid for our lives to cancel out sin. I recommend any who have doubts about just how high a price that was paid should sit down and watch the “Passion”. I will, just to remind myself again.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The UK just announced it wants to force farmers to feed their cows red seaweed based ‘methane blockers’ to stop them from farting and burping. Guess who invested $12m into a company that produces red seaweed methane blockers 2 months ago?
Bill Gates.
Wuhan virus –
Missed this in yesterday’s post –
On April 3, 2023, the now retired Dr. Fauci made an appearance at a townhall discussion with Jim Acosta at James Madison University. In the discussion, Dr. Fauci states that “there will absolutely be an outbreak of another pandemic.” He then suggests it could be “next year” or it could be in our “grandchildren’s lifetimes.”
Economy –
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
**
West Texas is one month away from cotton planting season, but the land is so dry farmers fear they won’t even be able to plant. Travis Mires, a farmer in O’Donnell, Texas, said, “I’ve been farming for 40-something years, and last year was the first year I didn’t have a row of cotton on any of my farms. We didn’t even get our irrigated up. Without some help from mother nature, with our limited irrigation, we can’t grow a crop.”
OBSERVATION – Drought conditions have eased for most of the rest of the west. Continuing drought conditions are hitting Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Wheat crops are especially at risk.
**
The Pacific Fishery Management Council on Thursday approved the closure of the 2023 season for all commercial and most recreational chinook fishing along the coast from Cape Falcon in northern Oregon to the California-Mexico border. Limited recreational salmon fishing will be allowed off southern Oregon in the fall.
“The forecasts for Chinook returning to California rivers this year are near record lows,” Council Chair Marc Gorelnik said after the vote in a news release. “The poor conditions in the freshwater environment that contributed to these low forecasted returns are unfortunately not something that the Council can, or has authority to, control.”
OBSERVATION – If you like salmon – better stock up now as there will be shortages in the coming months with even higher prices.
Invasion of Illegals –
Recent tweet by Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz that in the last 48 hours, 10,070 apprehensions were made. These included 5 sex offenders, 4 outstanding warrants, and one gang member. There were tens of pounds of drugs confiscated including Fentanyl, Ecstasy, Meth, and Cocaine. Firearms and stolen vehicles were recovered, too.
Border agents in Texas have encountered several large groups in recent weeks. The agency considers groups of more than 100 “large groups.”
Also on Monday, agents in El Paso uncovered two stash houses holding 146 migrants in the city’s Lower Valley.
OBSERVATION – Remember, Title 42 is still in effect for a little while longer. Illegal immigration observers are noting a significant rise in other countries arriving in border areas ready to take advantage of the even greater open border.
Biden / Harris watch –
Strong Intelligence indicates IRA factions plotting terror attacks against police officers ahead of Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak’s arrival in Northern Ireland to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement
OBSERVATION – IRA still around? And why is biden going to Ireland anyway with all the dumpster fires hitting the country and world? Oh that’s why.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Preface for today – violence created by Transtifa is the new BLM/Antifa violence threat to America now. Granted, Antifa will be there hand in hand, any event that pushes back against the radical Transtifa agenda will be met by violence from trans activists (backed by Antifa). There are indicators that Transtifa will resort to lethal methods to push their agenda.
**
Two Tennessee Democrats were expelled from the Tennessee General Assembly by the Republican supermajority-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday. The third state representative facing expulsion held her seat by a margin of only one vote on a historic day in the Tennessee legislature. The close vote came as a shock, as eight Republican lawmakers broke ranks to vote against the expulsion of Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knox County.
Resolutions to expel the members were introduced on April 3 after the lawmakers led protesters with a bullhorn in chants calling for tighter restrictions on gun rights while on the House floor. This came after the deadly Covenant School shooting in Nashville the week before.
OBSERVATION – This could be the start of a significant push back against leftist terror at the state level. I certainly hope this is the case as republicans have been too spineless over the year to give the democrats a taste of their own medicine. Dem Johnson claims her retention was an act of racism. Funny, I don’t see her resigning any time soon.
The hybred leftist protest of pro-trans / anti gun is exposing the riot manifest of the left for this coming summer (and beyond?). The transtifa elements are increasingly violent and this is not good see below.
**
Violent trans radicals assaulted Riley Gaines at a TPUSA event on campus at SFSU tonight. She is still barricaded inside an undisclosed location as they work to get her to safety. Videos show her being assaulted by men claiming to be ‘women’ as she is hurried to a safe room. Her guilt is speaking out against men participating in women’s swimming events.
**
The Biden Education Department just dropped new Title IX rules that bar schools that receive federal funding from enforcing policies that ban biological males from playing girl’s sports. The proposed regulations must undergo a period of public comment before they become law. It would ban schools from categorically students from competing with the sex they identify as but give room for schools to consider “fairness” for older students.
Even with this threat, more states are barring biological men from women’s sporting events.
**
William Whitworth, a 19-year-old male who claims to be female and goes by the name “Lilly,” has been arrested in Colorado Springs, Colo., after threatening various local schools. Whitworth has been charged with two counts of criminal attempt to commit murder in the first degree, as well as criminal mischief, menacing, and more.
When the deputies asked Whitworth if he was planning to shoot up a school, he nodded. When they asked him why he would do such a thing, Whitworth replied: “Why does anyone do it?” He was then asked if he planned this massacre at Timberview Middle School, which he had attended, and he nodded again. Asked why he picked that school, he mumbled: “No specific reason.” He added that he also planned shootings at local churches.
OBSERVATION – Recent Transtifa and other leftist rhetoric (even from the WH) is encouraging this kind of violent behavior.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Nimitz Strike Group is moving to the Philippine Sea with one carrier, at least three destroyers, and a cruiser following the S Korean exercises.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he is stepping in to challenge the Democratic incumbent for his party’s nomination in the upcoming presidential election.
OBSERVATION – Very interesting development. From what I’ve been able to gather he is a moderate which puts him very much to the far right of most of today’s democrat party. Will this accelerate the Marxist left’s discarding of biden in exchange for Newsom?
**
Manhattan DA removed the Trump indictment from its site on the *same* morning that Jim Jordan subpoenaed former Manhattan DA Mark Pomerantz to testify about why he resigned last yr over Bragg dropping Trump charges.
The subpoena directs Pomerantz to appear before the committee April 20th.
OBSERVATION – The saga continues. Is Bragg feeling more heat?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
There appears to be a religious conflict brewing in Russia between Muslims & Christians, which erupted after protests started against the constructions of a mega-mosque in Moscow. Overnight, militants attacked Russian security forces in 2 villages in Ingushetia. 2 policemen killed,6 wounded. Muslims also burned down an orthodox church in Russia a few days ago.
Logistics –
Russian forces may have withdrawn equipment from occupied Crimea for redeployment elsewhere in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery shows the withdrawal of a significant amount of armored fighting vehicles, tanks, and towed artillery systems from a depot in Medvedivka (20km northeast of Dzhankoy along the M18 highway) between March 17 and April 5. Some analysts believe it is in response to growing concerns over Ukraine’s planned offensive.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues. . Russian forces are conducting frontal attacks again to try to gain ground in the central part of Bakhmut and may have had some success by seizing portions of the west bank of the Bakhmutka River. Rumors are that Wagner forces are being rotated out of the Bakhmut fight and ‘top line’ Russian forces replacing them. Those rumors have occurred in the past and Wagner was never pulled out.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue, but no significant breakouts by Russia. Ukraine still holding the option to stage a strategic withdrawal from Bakhmut if necessary, but that doesn’t seem imminent. Lesser withdrawal are likely as Ukraine continues to execute an economy of force – defense in depth operation that is tying up (and chewing up) Russian units.
Israel –
Fighting got hot overnight as Israel struck Hamas and related targets in Gaza and the Islamic groups retaliated with largely ineffective rocket fire, followed by more Israeli airstrikes.
IDF confirms it struck Hamas targets in Southern Lebanon and says that it holds Lebanon responsible for attacks from its soil. Air strikes on Hamas related facilities in Lebanon occurred near the Rashidieh camp in southern Lebanon near Tyre. The barrage of rockets from Lebanon was the biggest launch in 17 years.
Hezbollah affiliated media Al Mayadeen Live report that “The resistance has put it’s long-range missile units on high alert”. “If Israel attacks [Lebanon], we will bomb Haifa”
Israel’s chief of staff has ordered the “mobilization of reserves with an emphasis on the air defense and offensive formations of the Air Force”.
U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem alerts U.S. government employees to avoid all travel above Highway 85 and Highway 87 in northern Israel, approximately 18 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border.
OBSERVATION – Israel is dancing carefully with strikes in Lebanon – it is essentially controlled by Hezbollah. Lebanese military interestingly enough (see Lebanon below) appears to be very aggressive in identifying the Hamas-related terror cell launch sites. These smaller terror groups are a thorn in the side of Hezbollah as well as the Lebanese people in general, so I suspect that they are taking the opportunity to do some house cleaning. Can’t say just how high Hamas is willing to escalate things to, but Israel is taking precautions to deal with it. Reportedly additional Iron Dome units have been deployed in northern and southern areas of Israel and Tel Aviv in particular (only Hezbollah has rockets capable of hitting). However, direct conflict with Hezbollah is not in the immediate picture. That could change in a heart beat though.
Lebanon -
The Lebanese Army - Rocket launchers and rockets ready for launch were found in the south of the country, and work is underway to dismantle them. The Lebanese Army also issued a statement saying rockets targeting northern Israel were launched from the towns of Qlaileh, al-Maaliyah, and Zibqin.
OBSERVATION – Example of cooperation by the Lebanese Army who really don’t want to get into a scrum with Israel.
Syria -
Syrian opposition sources report that the “alert level” has been raised among Palestinian factions in Syria. Also claims that Iranian militias have evacuated outposts in the vicinity of Damascus Int. airport. Confirmation is still pending.
**
The Saudis have invited Bashir Assad, the Iran backed Syrian leader to the next Arab League meeting on May 19th. This one is being held in Saudi Arabia. In late 2021 Syria was invited to attend the March 2022 Arab League meeting of all 22 members. President Assad has been negotiating with Arab League members since 2017 about abandoning Iran and rejoining the league.
OBSERVATION – This change is believed to be due to the ongoing renewal of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Globalism / Great Reset –
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Thursday that Americans will feel economic “pain” before an agreement is reached on raising the debt ceiling and markets will start to experience frightening turbulence as a possible default gets closer.
Dimon made the remarks in an interview with CNN on Thursday, predicting that deadlocked Democrats and Republicans will reach a deal on lifting the debt cap beyond the current $31.4 trillion within a few months—but not before Americans suffer some economic hardship.
“You’ll feel the pain before it happens,” Dimon told the outlet, referring to the moment when the Treasury Department’s arsenal of “extraordinary measures” for continuing to settle the U.S. government’s debt obligations runs out.
Various analyses, including a projection from the Congressional Budget Office, have estimated that the Treasury’s “extraordinary measures” to keep the government funded will run out sometime between July and September unless Congress lifts the cap.
As the moment of potential default approaches, Dimon suggested nervous investors will send markets on a wild ride.
OBSERVATION - Co-file under Economy. The debt ceiling fight provides an opportunity for the WEF underlings in the US to create economic chaos that could eventually result in their policies being put in place in the face of the crash of our economy. You don’t reset something that isn’t broken and debt default is a big hammer for the globalists.
The pain brought to citizens should the ceiling be crashed would be designed to move them into seeing the alternative WEF proposals as the saviors of the US and people would flock to them – Hegelian in practice.
Economy –
See JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon comments above.
Invasion of Illegals –
Illegal penetration of the northern border so far this year has exceeded the previous three years combined according to border patrol officals.
Biden / Harris watch –
VP Kamala Harris made a surprise visit to Nashville yesterday to push gun control and meet with ‘Tennessee Three’ after yesterday’s expulsions. But would not visit the families murdered by the transgender terrorist.
**
The House Oversight Committee has just issued subpoenas to several banks asking for biden family associates’ financial records. The Oversight Committee subpoenaed Bank of America, Cathay Bank, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC USA N.A., and former Hunter Biden business associate Mervyn Yan.
OBSERVATION – Exposing the corruption is good, but there is a slim to no chance the DoJ will follow-up on any criminal activity.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Overall trend is developing in the current violence by the left. The Transtifa elements are primarily focusing on attacking PEOPLE (real physical threats) and not destroying property as was the case with the BLM/Antifa riots. Trans extremists believe the conspiracy they are victims of a genocide so they feel justified to attack or kill people. The Democrat Party and the Left have decided that this is the most important issue of the day for their side, with the White House going all-in and Leftist activists escalating their behavior into violence.
Transtifa also appears to be more focused on threatening state and local govts through takeovers (a correlary to physical threats against people). Embedded and likely providing assistance to Transtifa are the standard Antifa et al mob that will do anything to attack western civilization. How aggressive will Transtifa become? I will fully expect to see soon direct attacks on Churches during their Sunday services (and a warning for this coming Resurrection Sunday) to try to intimidate christians to bowing down to their ‘god’ of self. You can count on more violent protests/attacks on conservatives challenging Transtifa narrative on college and other public forums. They will not be satisfied with just trying to shout them down, but seek to physically harm them.
More examples of Transtifa terror –
KS Representative Marvin Robinson (D-KCK) was told to “go die” by a colleague and that he had “blood on his hands” for voting to override Kansas Governor Kelley’s veto of a bill banning boys from playing in girl’s sports. He explained his vote to radio host Pete Mundo, and the details are harrowing. He described his colleague as “demons” on this issue.
OBSERVATION – Demonic is the only word for the explosion of Transtifa violence and demands.
**
Transgender activists that essentially held Riley Gaines hostage for some 3 hours demanded money in exchange for her safe passage off of the San Francisco State University. She is on record as to beginning legal actions against those who stayed in the hallway, assaulted her and SFSU.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS ON TRANSTIFA – This could escalate into something as violent as the 2020 riots, but with a much higher body count.
**
AOC recently spouted off in an interview in regards to the recent Fed court ruling against the biden regime trying to increase accessibility of abortifacients without the prescription of a doctor.
Quote - “I believe that The Biden Administration should ignore this ruling. The courts rely on the legitimacy of their rulings and what they are currently doing is engaging in an unprecedented erosion of their legitimacy.”
OBSERVATION – ‘ol mule mouth is a reliable source of what the far left thinks and wants. This time she makes the case for the total removal of the rule of law in this country. Democrats have been gaming the system for some time now, taking adverse court rulings and stated law and working tweaks to their policies to work around them. Even engaging in a delay tactic, setting forth a policy knowing it will likely be struck down but knowing it will take several years at least before the USSC will get the case and rule on it – essentially allowing the policy to be in effect for those years. And by the time the USSC acts, it will be essentially too late.
This is the kind of stuff civil wars get started over.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Air National Guard is preparing for the largest movement of forces across the Atlantic Ocean in its history. The service will send 100 aircraft to the US to take part in the Air Defender 2023 military exercise. The upcoming exercise will take place from June 12 to 22 and are designed to demonstrate the US Air National Guard’s ability to quickly deploy and use forces across Europe in the event that war in Ukraine spreads to NATO countries.
The United States will send approximately 100 aircraft to Germany for the 10-day exercise. They include fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighters, upgraded fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft and the older F-15C Eagle along with the legendary A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft. They will be supported by Pegasus air refuelers.
Air Defender 2023 will be the first exercise in which Finland, as a NATO member, will participate. It has not yet received F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation fighters, so it will send F/A-18 Super Hornets.
OBSERVATION – these kind of exercises were very common during the Cold War era and that they are ramping up again indicates an increased focus on Russia in a European theater setting.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Juan Merchan, who presides over the case of former President Donald Trump in Manhattan, may be subject to an ethics investigation for violating New York’s Code of Judicial Conduct. Outlined in the New York Code of Judicial Conduct, sitting judges are prohibited from engaging in any political activity, including making contributions to political organizations or candidates. Judge Juan Merchan’s three donations to Democrats during the 2020 election could be a violation of this rule.
OBSERVATION – Good to see there are some with backbone ready to confront the hypocrisy of the left. This on face value should get the judge disqualified from any further participation in the Trump show trial as well as threaten his credentials.
China –
Taiwan Ministry of Defense reports that 42 PLA aircraft and 8 vessels were detected by 11:00 (UTC 8) April 8th. 29 of the detected aircraft had crossed northern, central, and southern median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered our southwest ADIZ.
OBSERVATION – This would be associate in part with China’s declared ‘exercse’ that they claim would take place in areas that surround Taiwan April 8 to 10.
This level of air intrusion is unusually high and 8 PLAN ships is about twice the average, maybe more. Even though these numbers are high, they are far too few to suggest an imminent invasion and are associated with the declared ‘exercise’.
However, if China follows through with its threat to stop and ‘inspect’ shipping headed to Taiwan – then the game really has hit a higher note as this is a serious component to an overall blockade of the island.
North/South Korea –
NK conducted another test of its drone submersible that could be equipped with a nuclear warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
RUMINT. Russians are preparing for the “evacuation” of civilians in the occupied cities and villages of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions according to the General Staff of Ukraine. Russians reportedly are spreading information that the forced evacuation of the civilian population will begin from the end of April. There is a periodic departure of buses with those wishing to evacuate.
Economic Impact –
The Russian currency has been taking a beating this month, dropping to its lowest exchange levels against the Euro and Dollar in recent memory. Some indicators of minor bank runs developing.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Reports continue to buzz the interwebs regarding classified documents relating to the Ukraine war floating about social media. The Pentagon on Thursday confirmed top secret documents about the Ukraine war were circulating on social media - some of them had been doctored.
MY TAKE – I’ve not seen all 100 or so pages of these documents, but those I have seen are questionable and look a lot like maps and figures OSINT folks have been putting out for some time now. Equipment losses are contrary in some ways to the detailed listings of verified losses put together by Onyx et al. By and large I think this could well be a part of a larger disinformation campaign. Unheard of? Look to the planning for the Normandy invasion in WW2 – Allied forces put together a fake task force around Patton’s command and projected landing sites that the German’s thought were the true objective. When the assault hit, German reinforcements were held on the belief that Normandy was a diversion.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues. Ukraine grudgingly giving up terrain in the center of the town and with the continued trend, the likelihood of a much larger pull back is emerging.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Russia is close to shutting off a critical resupply route for Ukraine into Bakhmut and will need to make a decision soon on further pull backs or even a pull out. Russian has stripped artillery assets across eastern/southern Ukraine to support their assault. This leaves those other sectors at a significant disadvantage when Ukraine executes its offensive.
Israel –
Tensions remain high in Israel after one person was killed and 7 injured in the car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv overnight. Driver has been ‘neutralized’ according to police. There was a shooting in the Jordan Valley and along with the car attack has caused Netanyahu to order mobilization of all border police reserve companies and instructs the IDF to call up additional reservists.
Rocket attacks against Israel have not resumed.
OBSERVATION – In a way, Islamic terrorists are launching a multi front assault on Israel, by rockets from Gaza and Lebanon as well as terror attacks within Israel and West Bank areas.
Turkey -
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a call for an alliance with Iran in “pan-Islamic solidarity” against Israel. It’s being reported that Erdogan placed a call to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi where they discussed standing together against Israel in response to Israel’s strikes against Palestinian targets following recent attacks by Hamas.
OBSERVATION – Turkey’s Erdogan has cycled into a love/hate relationship with Israel but appears to be going deeper into the ‘hate’ side of the equation. Facing strong challenges to his rule in the upcoming elections, these actions are focused on trying to rally the more radical element in Turkey to his side. See below on some current polls.
Turkey has also been a wild card with Russia, in some ways snuggling up to them, while other instances striking at them.
**
With about 36 days to Turkey’s elections, here is one poll I found.
• Kilicdaroglu: 42.6%
• Erdogan: 41.1%
• Ince: 5%
Second round of voting will be required if no candidate gets the 50+% mark. At this stage a second round appears to be a given.
Misc of Note –
Weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico as there is a possibility of a tropical storm system to develop over the course of next week. Though unusual, April has seen the development of tropical storms in the past. Time to check and update your hurricane preparedness plans.
Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.
Economy –
Sales of apartment buildings are falling at their fastest rate since the subprime-mortgage crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports. In the first quarter of this year, investors purchased approximately $14 billion of apartment buildings - a decline in sales of 74% from the same quarter last year, according to preliminary data from CoStar Group. The drop could be the largest annual sales decline for any quarter going back to a 77% drop in Q1 2009.
OBSERVATION – Commercial property is facing a crash just as the residential market is. Neither is good and pushes to confirm the onset of a major recession.
CW2/Domestic violence –
IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel on Thursday provided details about plans to hire armed agents in the agency’s criminal investigations division. Flush with 80 billion in new funding, the plan indicates the agency intends to hire nearly 30,000 new full-time employees during the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years, including 8,782 hires in enforcement and 13,883 in taxpayer service.
Assuming no attrition owing to resignation and retirement, that would put the IRS’s total workforce by 2024 at roughly 110,000 employees.
OBSERVATION – Totalitarian govts use taxes and a weaponized govt agencies to intimidate the population in staying compliant to the regime’s demands. The growing weaponization of the IRS as well as other govt alphabet agencies is another example of the growing readiness of the govt to use force against the citizenry.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy released a photo Saturday of a guided-missile submarine operating in the Middle East, a show of force that comes amid growing harassment of U.S. troops in Syria and attacks on U.S. bases by Iran-backed militants.
USS Florida, an Ohio-class submarine that carries 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, entered the region Thursday and began transiting the Suez Canal the following day, Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet, said in a statement.
The vessel “is deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet to help ensure regional maritime security and stability,” Hawkins said.
The fleet’s area of responsibility includes the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2023-04-08/navy-submarine-suez-canal-iran-9732029.html
OBSERVATION - The Navy doesn’t typically choose to reveal the locations of its submarines while they’re at sea. With Iranian militancy on the ascendance, this information was likely published as a warning to the mullahs.
China –
Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reports that 71 PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. Reports are that China is simulating precision strikes against key targets on Taiwan and its surrounding waters during a second day of military drills.
OBSERVATION – While these ‘exercises’ give China a way to test its military on a large scale, they also tip their hand to Taiwan and US intelligence assets by showing their plans for an attack, providing Taiwan info on how to defend the Island. Exercises are anticipated to conclude on Monday.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
A year ago, Russia launched a brutal missile attack on Kramatorsk railway station. It was one of the main evacuation points for residents of Donetsk region. 61 people died, including 7 children.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Ukraine grudgling giving up terrain.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. In the Avdiivka area, Russia appears to be pressing gains made to the south of the city. At Bakhmut, Russia is increasing pressure to close off the critical H-32 highway that supplies Ukrainian forces in the town. Ukraine continues to make the stubborn defense of these areas a boat anchor to Russia’s efforts to capture the Donbas and for them to expend resources they will need to stop a Ukranian offensive.
Israel –
Convergence of Ramadan, Passover and Easter have made things very tense on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Palestinians barricaded themselves in the al-Aqsa mosque on Saturday night while at least 842 Jewish worshipers made the pilgrimage to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem on Sunday morning, the first day of Passover’s hol hamoed and on the day of the Birkat Kohanim (”priestly blessings”) at the Western Wall. Over the course of last week, Muslim rioting on the mount and in other parts of Jerusalem were used in part to justify Hamas et al firing rockets into Israel.
**
IDF says 6 rockets were fired from Syria overnight. One intercepted, one landed in open area, one fell short In Syria. Rockets fired towards Israel were fired, according to local sources, from Tell Jumou (NW. Daraa - Syria). It’s a fortified Hill with underground bunkers located between Nawa & Tasil & overlooking entire region.
In response, IDF says it carried out a drone strike against the launchers used to fire rockets into Israel from Syria earlier, and fighter jets hit a military compound belonging to the Syrian army’s 4th Division, as well as a radar and artillery posts. Israel states that it holds the Syrian regime is responsible for everything that happens on its territory.
The Egyptian army thwarted the launch of heavy, long-range guided missiles in Sinai that were aimed at hitting the occupied city of Umm al-Rashash, southern Israel, “Eilat”.
Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah is met overnight with the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh and with senior of Hamas, Saleh Al-Arori.
OBSERVATION – All these add up to trouble with a capital “T”. These Hamas/Hezbollah linked terrorist factions are attempting to develop a three (four?) front war by striking from Gaza/Lebanon, Syria and Sinai. I expect more attacks like this to continue throughout the remainder of Ramadan.
Iran –
U.S. and Israeli Intelligence is reporting that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is preparing to conduct “Kamikaze” Drone Attacks most likely utilizing Shahed-136s against Israeli-Flagged Commercial and Civilian Ships in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.
The biggest item right now on the threat matrix is the expected EPA regs to kill ICE cars. This will kill the economy, freedom (personal mobility), etc. Ability to get to a job, or to change jobs to a slightly new geography, will be severely affected. What is about to be proposed is on par with the Great Society welfare programs on the disaster level.
Jesus Christ hates me.
John 3: 16 For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.
17 For God did not send his Son into the world to condemn the world, but to save the world through him.
18 Whoever believes in him is not condemned, but whoever does not believe stands condemned already because they have not believed in the name of God’s one and only Son.
19 This is the verdict: Light has come into the world, but people loved darkness instead of light because their deeds were evil.
20 Everyone who does evil hates the light, and will not come into the light for fear that their deeds will be exposed.
21 But whoever lives by the truth comes into the light, so that it may be seen plainly that what they have done has been done in the sight of God.
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