Globalism / Great Reset –
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Thursday that Americans will feel economic “pain” before an agreement is reached on raising the debt ceiling and markets will start to experience frightening turbulence as a possible default gets closer.
Dimon made the remarks in an interview with CNN on Thursday, predicting that deadlocked Democrats and Republicans will reach a deal on lifting the debt cap beyond the current $31.4 trillion within a few months—but not before Americans suffer some economic hardship.
“You’ll feel the pain before it happens,” Dimon told the outlet, referring to the moment when the Treasury Department’s arsenal of “extraordinary measures” for continuing to settle the U.S. government’s debt obligations runs out.
Various analyses, including a projection from the Congressional Budget Office, have estimated that the Treasury’s “extraordinary measures” to keep the government funded will run out sometime between July and September unless Congress lifts the cap.
As the moment of potential default approaches, Dimon suggested nervous investors will send markets on a wild ride.
OBSERVATION - Co-file under Economy. The debt ceiling fight provides an opportunity for the WEF underlings in the US to create economic chaos that could eventually result in their policies being put in place in the face of the crash of our economy. You don’t reset something that isn’t broken and debt default is a big hammer for the globalists.
The pain brought to citizens should the ceiling be crashed would be designed to move them into seeing the alternative WEF proposals as the saviors of the US and people would flock to them – Hegelian in practice.
Economy –
See JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon comments above.
Invasion of Illegals –
Illegal penetration of the northern border so far this year has exceeded the previous three years combined according to border patrol officals.
Biden / Harris watch –
VP Kamala Harris made a surprise visit to Nashville yesterday to push gun control and meet with ‘Tennessee Three’ after yesterday’s expulsions. But would not visit the families murdered by the transgender terrorist.
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The House Oversight Committee has just issued subpoenas to several banks asking for biden family associates’ financial records. The Oversight Committee subpoenaed Bank of America, Cathay Bank, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC USA N.A., and former Hunter Biden business associate Mervyn Yan.
OBSERVATION – Exposing the corruption is good, but there is a slim to no chance the DoJ will follow-up on any criminal activity.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Overall trend is developing in the current violence by the left. The Transtifa elements are primarily focusing on attacking PEOPLE (real physical threats) and not destroying property as was the case with the BLM/Antifa riots. Trans extremists believe the conspiracy they are victims of a genocide so they feel justified to attack or kill people. The Democrat Party and the Left have decided that this is the most important issue of the day for their side, with the White House going all-in and Leftist activists escalating their behavior into violence.
Transtifa also appears to be more focused on threatening state and local govts through takeovers (a correlary to physical threats against people). Embedded and likely providing assistance to Transtifa are the standard Antifa et al mob that will do anything to attack western civilization. How aggressive will Transtifa become? I will fully expect to see soon direct attacks on Churches during their Sunday services (and a warning for this coming Resurrection Sunday) to try to intimidate christians to bowing down to their ‘god’ of self. You can count on more violent protests/attacks on conservatives challenging Transtifa narrative on college and other public forums. They will not be satisfied with just trying to shout them down, but seek to physically harm them.
More examples of Transtifa terror –
KS Representative Marvin Robinson (D-KCK) was told to “go die” by a colleague and that he had “blood on his hands” for voting to override Kansas Governor Kelley’s veto of a bill banning boys from playing in girl’s sports. He explained his vote to radio host Pete Mundo, and the details are harrowing. He described his colleague as “demons” on this issue.
OBSERVATION – Demonic is the only word for the explosion of Transtifa violence and demands.
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Transgender activists that essentially held Riley Gaines hostage for some 3 hours demanded money in exchange for her safe passage off of the San Francisco State University. She is on record as to beginning legal actions against those who stayed in the hallway, assaulted her and SFSU.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS ON TRANSTIFA – This could escalate into something as violent as the 2020 riots, but with a much higher body count.
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AOC recently spouted off in an interview in regards to the recent Fed court ruling against the biden regime trying to increase accessibility of abortifacients without the prescription of a doctor.
Quote - “I believe that The Biden Administration should ignore this ruling. The courts rely on the legitimacy of their rulings and what they are currently doing is engaging in an unprecedented erosion of their legitimacy.”
OBSERVATION – ‘ol mule mouth is a reliable source of what the far left thinks and wants. This time she makes the case for the total removal of the rule of law in this country. Democrats have been gaming the system for some time now, taking adverse court rulings and stated law and working tweaks to their policies to work around them. Even engaging in a delay tactic, setting forth a policy knowing it will likely be struck down but knowing it will take several years at least before the USSC will get the case and rule on it – essentially allowing the policy to be in effect for those years. And by the time the USSC acts, it will be essentially too late.
This is the kind of stuff civil wars get started over.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Air National Guard is preparing for the largest movement of forces across the Atlantic Ocean in its history. The service will send 100 aircraft to the US to take part in the Air Defender 2023 military exercise. The upcoming exercise will take place from June 12 to 22 and are designed to demonstrate the US Air National Guard’s ability to quickly deploy and use forces across Europe in the event that war in Ukraine spreads to NATO countries.
The United States will send approximately 100 aircraft to Germany for the 10-day exercise. They include fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighters, upgraded fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft and the older F-15C Eagle along with the legendary A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft. They will be supported by Pegasus air refuelers.
Air Defender 2023 will be the first exercise in which Finland, as a NATO member, will participate. It has not yet received F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation fighters, so it will send F/A-18 Super Hornets.
OBSERVATION – these kind of exercises were very common during the Cold War era and that they are ramping up again indicates an increased focus on Russia in a European theater setting.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Juan Merchan, who presides over the case of former President Donald Trump in Manhattan, may be subject to an ethics investigation for violating New York’s Code of Judicial Conduct. Outlined in the New York Code of Judicial Conduct, sitting judges are prohibited from engaging in any political activity, including making contributions to political organizations or candidates. Judge Juan Merchan’s three donations to Democrats during the 2020 election could be a violation of this rule.
OBSERVATION – Good to see there are some with backbone ready to confront the hypocrisy of the left. This on face value should get the judge disqualified from any further participation in the Trump show trial as well as threaten his credentials.
China –
Taiwan Ministry of Defense reports that 42 PLA aircraft and 8 vessels were detected by 11:00 (UTC 8) April 8th. 29 of the detected aircraft had crossed northern, central, and southern median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered our southwest ADIZ.
OBSERVATION – This would be associate in part with China’s declared ‘exercse’ that they claim would take place in areas that surround Taiwan April 8 to 10.
This level of air intrusion is unusually high and 8 PLAN ships is about twice the average, maybe more. Even though these numbers are high, they are far too few to suggest an imminent invasion and are associated with the declared ‘exercise’.
However, if China follows through with its threat to stop and ‘inspect’ shipping headed to Taiwan – then the game really has hit a higher note as this is a serious component to an overall blockade of the island.
North/South Korea –
NK conducted another test of its drone submersible that could be equipped with a nuclear warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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RUMINT-
RUMINT. Russians are preparing for the “evacuation” of civilians in the occupied cities and villages of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions according to the General Staff of Ukraine. Russians reportedly are spreading information that the forced evacuation of the civilian population will begin from the end of April. There is a periodic departure of buses with those wishing to evacuate.
Economic Impact –
The Russian currency has been taking a beating this month, dropping to its lowest exchange levels against the Euro and Dollar in recent memory. Some indicators of minor bank runs developing.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Reports continue to buzz the interwebs regarding classified documents relating to the Ukraine war floating about social media. The Pentagon on Thursday confirmed top secret documents about the Ukraine war were circulating on social media - some of them had been doctored.
MY TAKE – I’ve not seen all 100 or so pages of these documents, but those I have seen are questionable and look a lot like maps and figures OSINT folks have been putting out for some time now. Equipment losses are contrary in some ways to the detailed listings of verified losses put together by Onyx et al. By and large I think this could well be a part of a larger disinformation campaign. Unheard of? Look to the planning for the Normandy invasion in WW2 – Allied forces put together a fake task force around Patton’s command and projected landing sites that the German’s thought were the true objective. When the assault hit, German reinforcements were held on the belief that Normandy was a diversion.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues. Ukraine grudgingly giving up terrain in the center of the town and with the continued trend, the likelihood of a much larger pull back is emerging.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Russia is close to shutting off a critical resupply route for Ukraine into Bakhmut and will need to make a decision soon on further pull backs or even a pull out. Russian has stripped artillery assets across eastern/southern Ukraine to support their assault. This leaves those other sectors at a significant disadvantage when Ukraine executes its offensive.
Israel –
Tensions remain high in Israel after one person was killed and 7 injured in the car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv overnight. Driver has been ‘neutralized’ according to police. There was a shooting in the Jordan Valley and along with the car attack has caused Netanyahu to order mobilization of all border police reserve companies and instructs the IDF to call up additional reservists.
Rocket attacks against Israel have not resumed.
OBSERVATION – In a way, Islamic terrorists are launching a multi front assault on Israel, by rockets from Gaza and Lebanon as well as terror attacks within Israel and West Bank areas.
Turkey -
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a call for an alliance with Iran in “pan-Islamic solidarity” against Israel. It’s being reported that Erdogan placed a call to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi where they discussed standing together against Israel in response to Israel’s strikes against Palestinian targets following recent attacks by Hamas.
OBSERVATION – Turkey’s Erdogan has cycled into a love/hate relationship with Israel but appears to be going deeper into the ‘hate’ side of the equation. Facing strong challenges to his rule in the upcoming elections, these actions are focused on trying to rally the more radical element in Turkey to his side. See below on some current polls.
Turkey has also been a wild card with Russia, in some ways snuggling up to them, while other instances striking at them.
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With about 36 days to Turkey’s elections, here is one poll I found.
• Kilicdaroglu: 42.6%
• Erdogan: 41.1%
• Ince: 5%
Second round of voting will be required if no candidate gets the 50+% mark. At this stage a second round appears to be a given.
Misc of Note –
Weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico as there is a possibility of a tropical storm system to develop over the course of next week. Though unusual, April has seen the development of tropical storms in the past. Time to check and update your hurricane preparedness plans.
Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.
Economy –
Sales of apartment buildings are falling at their fastest rate since the subprime-mortgage crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports. In the first quarter of this year, investors purchased approximately $14 billion of apartment buildings - a decline in sales of 74% from the same quarter last year, according to preliminary data from CoStar Group. The drop could be the largest annual sales decline for any quarter going back to a 77% drop in Q1 2009.
OBSERVATION – Commercial property is facing a crash just as the residential market is. Neither is good and pushes to confirm the onset of a major recession.
CW2/Domestic violence –
IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel on Thursday provided details about plans to hire armed agents in the agency’s criminal investigations division. Flush with 80 billion in new funding, the plan indicates the agency intends to hire nearly 30,000 new full-time employees during the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years, including 8,782 hires in enforcement and 13,883 in taxpayer service.
Assuming no attrition owing to resignation and retirement, that would put the IRS’s total workforce by 2024 at roughly 110,000 employees.
OBSERVATION – Totalitarian govts use taxes and a weaponized govt agencies to intimidate the population in staying compliant to the regime’s demands. The growing weaponization of the IRS as well as other govt alphabet agencies is another example of the growing readiness of the govt to use force against the citizenry.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy released a photo Saturday of a guided-missile submarine operating in the Middle East, a show of force that comes amid growing harassment of U.S. troops in Syria and attacks on U.S. bases by Iran-backed militants.
USS Florida, an Ohio-class submarine that carries 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, entered the region Thursday and began transiting the Suez Canal the following day, Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet, said in a statement.
The vessel “is deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet to help ensure regional maritime security and stability,” Hawkins said.
The fleet’s area of responsibility includes the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2023-04-08/navy-submarine-suez-canal-iran-9732029.html
OBSERVATION - The Navy doesn’t typically choose to reveal the locations of its submarines while they’re at sea. With Iranian militancy on the ascendance, this information was likely published as a warning to the mullahs.
China –
Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reports that 71 PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. Reports are that China is simulating precision strikes against key targets on Taiwan and its surrounding waters during a second day of military drills.
OBSERVATION – While these ‘exercises’ give China a way to test its military on a large scale, they also tip their hand to Taiwan and US intelligence assets by showing their plans for an attack, providing Taiwan info on how to defend the Island. Exercises are anticipated to conclude on Monday.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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A year ago, Russia launched a brutal missile attack on Kramatorsk railway station. It was one of the main evacuation points for residents of Donetsk region. 61 people died, including 7 children.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Ukraine grudgling giving up terrain.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. In the Avdiivka area, Russia appears to be pressing gains made to the south of the city. At Bakhmut, Russia is increasing pressure to close off the critical H-32 highway that supplies Ukrainian forces in the town. Ukraine continues to make the stubborn defense of these areas a boat anchor to Russia’s efforts to capture the Donbas and for them to expend resources they will need to stop a Ukranian offensive.
Israel –
Convergence of Ramadan, Passover and Easter have made things very tense on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Palestinians barricaded themselves in the al-Aqsa mosque on Saturday night while at least 842 Jewish worshipers made the pilgrimage to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem on Sunday morning, the first day of Passover’s hol hamoed and on the day of the Birkat Kohanim (”priestly blessings”) at the Western Wall. Over the course of last week, Muslim rioting on the mount and in other parts of Jerusalem were used in part to justify Hamas et al firing rockets into Israel.
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IDF says 6 rockets were fired from Syria overnight. One intercepted, one landed in open area, one fell short In Syria. Rockets fired towards Israel were fired, according to local sources, from Tell Jumou (NW. Daraa - Syria). It’s a fortified Hill with underground bunkers located between Nawa & Tasil & overlooking entire region.
In response, IDF says it carried out a drone strike against the launchers used to fire rockets into Israel from Syria earlier, and fighter jets hit a military compound belonging to the Syrian army’s 4th Division, as well as a radar and artillery posts. Israel states that it holds the Syrian regime is responsible for everything that happens on its territory.
The Egyptian army thwarted the launch of heavy, long-range guided missiles in Sinai that were aimed at hitting the occupied city of Umm al-Rashash, southern Israel, “Eilat”.
Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah is met overnight with the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh and with senior of Hamas, Saleh Al-Arori.
OBSERVATION – All these add up to trouble with a capital “T”. These Hamas/Hezbollah linked terrorist factions are attempting to develop a three (four?) front war by striking from Gaza/Lebanon, Syria and Sinai. I expect more attacks like this to continue throughout the remainder of Ramadan.
Iran –
U.S. and Israeli Intelligence is reporting that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is preparing to conduct “Kamikaze” Drone Attacks most likely utilizing Shahed-136s against Israeli-Flagged Commercial and Civilian Ships in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.