Replies

Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.

Economy –

Sales of apartment buildings are falling at their fastest rate since the subprime-mortgage crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports. In the first quarter of this year, investors purchased approximately $14 billion of apartment buildings - a decline in sales of 74% from the same quarter last year, according to preliminary data from CoStar Group. The drop could be the largest annual sales decline for any quarter going back to a 77% drop in Q1 2009.

OBSERVATION – Commercial property is facing a crash just as the residential market is. Neither is good and pushes to confirm the onset of a major recession.

CW2/Domestic violence –

IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel on Thursday provided details about plans to hire armed agents in the agency’s criminal investigations division. Flush with 80 billion in new funding, the plan indicates the agency intends to hire nearly 30,000 new full-time employees during the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years, including 8,782 hires in enforcement and 13,883 in taxpayer service.
Assuming no attrition owing to resignation and retirement, that would put the IRS’s total workforce by 2024 at roughly 110,000 employees.

OBSERVATION – Totalitarian govts use taxes and a weaponized govt agencies to intimidate the population in staying compliant to the regime’s demands. The growing weaponization of the IRS as well as other govt alphabet agencies is another example of the growing readiness of the govt to use force against the citizenry.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Navy released a photo Saturday of a guided-missile submarine operating in the Middle East, a show of force that comes amid growing harassment of U.S. troops in Syria and attacks on U.S. bases by Iran-backed militants.

USS Florida, an Ohio-class submarine that carries 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, entered the region Thursday and began transiting the Suez Canal the following day, Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet, said in a statement.

The vessel “is deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet to help ensure regional maritime security and stability,” Hawkins said.

The fleet’s area of responsibility includes the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2023-04-08/navy-submarine-suez-canal-iran-9732029.html

OBSERVATION - The Navy doesn’t typically choose to reveal the locations of its submarines while they’re at sea. With Iranian militancy on the ascendance, this information was likely published as a warning to the mullahs.

China –

Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reports that 71 PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. Reports are that China is simulating precision strikes against key targets on Taiwan and its surrounding waters during a second day of military drills.

OBSERVATION – While these ‘exercises’ give China a way to test its military on a large scale, they also tip their hand to Taiwan and US intelligence assets by showing their plans for an attack, providing Taiwan info on how to defend the Island. Exercises are anticipated to conclude on Monday.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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A year ago, Russia launched a brutal missile attack on Kramatorsk railway station. It was one of the main evacuation points for residents of Donetsk region. 61 people died, including 7 children.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Ukraine grudgling giving up terrain.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.

OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. In the Avdiivka area, Russia appears to be pressing gains made to the south of the city. At Bakhmut, Russia is increasing pressure to close off the critical H-32 highway that supplies Ukrainian forces in the town. Ukraine continues to make the stubborn defense of these areas a boat anchor to Russia’s efforts to capture the Donbas and for them to expend resources they will need to stop a Ukranian offensive.

Israel –

Convergence of Ramadan, Passover and Easter have made things very tense on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Palestinians barricaded themselves in the al-Aqsa mosque on Saturday night while at least 842 Jewish worshipers made the pilgrimage to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem on Sunday morning, the first day of Passover’s hol hamoed and on the day of the Birkat Kohanim (”priestly blessings”) at the Western Wall. Over the course of last week, Muslim rioting on the mount and in other parts of Jerusalem were used in part to justify Hamas et al firing rockets into Israel.

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IDF says 6 rockets were fired from Syria overnight. One intercepted, one landed in open area, one fell short In Syria. Rockets fired towards Israel were fired, according to local sources, from Tell Jumou (NW. Daraa - Syria). It’s a fortified Hill with underground bunkers located between Nawa & Tasil & overlooking entire region.

In response, IDF says it carried out a drone strike against the launchers used to fire rockets into Israel from Syria earlier, and fighter jets hit a military compound belonging to the Syrian army’s 4th Division, as well as a radar and artillery posts. Israel states that it holds the Syrian regime is responsible for everything that happens on its territory.

The Egyptian army thwarted the launch of heavy, long-range guided missiles in Sinai that were aimed at hitting the occupied city of Umm al-Rashash, southern Israel, “Eilat”.

Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah is met overnight with the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh and with senior of Hamas, Saleh Al-Arori.

OBSERVATION – All these add up to trouble with a capital “T”. These Hamas/Hezbollah linked terrorist factions are attempting to develop a three (four?) front war by striking from Gaza/Lebanon, Syria and Sinai. I expect more attacks like this to continue throughout the remainder of Ramadan.

Iran –

U.S. and Israeli Intelligence is reporting that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is preparing to conduct “Kamikaze” Drone Attacks most likely utilizing Shahed-136s against Israeli-Flagged Commercial and Civilian Ships in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.

Globalism / Great Reset –
The EPA will announce new auto pollution limits on Wednesday, aiming for 60% of all new U.S. vehicles sold by 2030 to be all-electric. Only 6 percent of vehicles sold last year were “all-electric.”

OBSERVATION – While this is considerably within the Economic topic, its broader implications are globalist. This regulation would essentially cripple the American car industry as 7 years is insufficient for Detroit to retool and change manufacturing. Add to that the extreme shortage of essential materials for these batteries and the lack of infrastructure and electrical generation capacity to plug these suckers in to have them work.

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French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must reduce its dependency on the U.S. and avoid getting dragged into a conflict over Taiwan, adding that European talk about support for Taiwan was not credible and would only increase tensions.

OBSERVATION – Evidence that WEF compliant France is joining some of the effort being made to decouple the US dollar as the reserve currency. At least that is how “reduce its dependency” in part is being interpreted.

Economy –

Cattle prices reached $177 per hundredweight (cwt.) last week, beating the previous record of $171 per cwt. set in November 2014.

OBSERVATION – Due in large part to shortages created by cattle herd drawdowns caused by the past couple years of drought combined with high feed and fuel costs. It will take years to rebuild herds to what they were. Until then, beef will continue to be very expensive and then some.

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American banks experienced a historic contraction in the final two weeks of March, greater than even during the 2008 financial crisis, in the clearest indication yet that credit conditions are tightening as a result of deteriorating economic conditions.
According to Federal Reserve data dating back to 1973, commercial bank lending saw a drop of nearly $105 billion in the two weeks ending March 29th. The final week saw a decrease of over $45 billion, which can be attributed primarily to a decline in small banks’ loan offerings.

Invasion of Illegals –

More Republicans are reportedly embracing the idea of targeted bombing in Mexico to stop the fentanyl crisis in the United States.
The idea began gaining traction after former President Donald Trump started talking about sending “special forces” and using “cyberwarfare” to target cartel leaders, Politico reported Monday.
Rolling Stone reported late last month that Trump asked for “battle plans” to striking Mexico.

OBSERVATION – What the GOP is missing in this equation is that these cartels are more than capable of retaliatory strikes within the US that our law enforcement is unable to stop. Short of completely closing the border, cartels have elements already ensconced in America coordinating drug movements and associated crime. Who knows how many more operatives have made their way (single, military age men) into the country to bolster the cartels. Second - Mexico has increasingly been deploying its military against cartels, with only limited success. Our military would not fare much better under today’s woke command.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.

POLITICAL FRONT –

This item has been brewing since last week, but ‘ol mule mouth just cant’ shut up about it. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said she wants Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas impeached and his advisers investigated after media reports identified expensive undisclosed trips Thomas took with American Enterprise Institute Director Harlan Crow.

OBSERVATION - The standard for impeachment of USSC justices has been pretty high, but today’s current democrat leftists want to see no stone unturned in their efforts to get Thomas off the court and swing it to a liberal bench compliant with their demands and agenda. Like with the Trump impeachments, the current charges are a nothing burger being jazzed up to seem as the end of the republic as we know it.

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Texas legislators introduced SB2334 and HB4903 into the Texas Senate and House, which would require the Texas Comptroller to establish a digital currency fully backed by gold, redeemable for gold or dollars, and create a mechanism for using the digital currency for everyday transactions. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Easily could cross ref to CW2 and Globalism / Great Reset issues. States now setting up parallel govt systems just in case. Still, digital currency is a road we shouldn’t take. It is accepting the premise of digital while still allowing eventual growth into a controlling methodology.

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The FBI and Justice Department are searching for the source of what is shaping up to be one of the most damaging intelligence breaches in decades. The documents were first posted in January to a small group online on a messaging channel that trafficked in memes, jokes and racist talk.

OBSERVATION – I’m still basing this ‘leak’ as disinformation. If it was a true leak, I’m sure this small group is wetting themselves right now given the govt power to identify the users.

China –

Reportedly China is completing its “exercise” today.

North/South Korea –

N. Korea again unresponsive to daily phone call via inter-Korean liaison line: ministry

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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Economic Impact –
Russian President Putin’s special assistant met Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani in Tehran to discuss thwarting Western sanctions through ditching the dollar in bilateral transactions in the hope that this would weaken the US currency.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues with Ukraine grudgling giving up terrain.
Ukrainian official stated that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces have appeared in Bakhmut. Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southern Bakhmut

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.

OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Once again, Ukraine faces a decision point to either withdraw forces to more defendable and resupply able areas, or commit reserves to maintain supply lines. If Ukraine is to be believed, they continue to draw the better Russian forces into the meat grinder and so far they appear to consider the loss ratios to be in their favor.

Israel –

Tensions remain high, but with the passing of Passover and Easter some of the religious trigger points have lessened. Ramadan is still ongoing and will keep things in turmoil.

Iran –

The Iranian Tasnim Agency says that an Iranian technical delegation may visit Riyadh tomorrow to make preparations for the reopening of the Iranian embassy in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia –

See Iran above.

Syria -

Syrian army’s 4th armored division sends reinforcements & weapons to Israel border, according to N12News reports citing Syrian sources.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

WAR WATCH

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev - Work on a peace treaty with Armenia is not going so smoothly, but Azerbaijan aims to normalize relations with Yerevan.