Total pain yesterday trying to filter out the abundant ‘April fools’ news items from real news.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Trade between India and Malaysia is now able to be settled with Indian Rupees, the India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced in a statement Saturday.
This move strikes a blow to the hegemony US dollar. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the statement from the MEA reads.
OBSERVATION – As noted with BRICS, global movement is going away from the dollar as the global reserve currency. While the volume of these new exchanges are not substantial, they are growing. The WEF has to crash the US economy in order to ‘reset’, and a global economy based on the dollar is an obstacle to that reset.
Economy –
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), staring down nearly $23 billion in outstanding costs following recent bank failures, is deliberating shifting much of that financial burden onto the nation’slargest banks.
Bloomberg reported that the FDIC is expected to propose a “special assessment” in May primarily focused on recuperating some of the $128 billion deposit insurance fund that has taken a significant blow since the collapse of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. In shifting much of this financial burden from community lenders onto larger banks such as JPMorgan and Chase & Co. and Bank of America, which already pay billions of dollars into the Deposit Insurance Fund.
OBSERVATION – Expect higher fees and penalties from these banks as they will pass these expenses on to their customers.
Biden / Harris watch –
Kamala Harris tells business leaders in Zambia:
“Many of you at this table, and the folks that you work with, have a history of doing work on this continent.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
More violence at Transgender ‘visibility’ rallies directed towards opposition groups. The biden regime has yet to acknowledge the attack against the Christian school by a transgender individual continuing to support the narrative of how oppressed the trans community is.
OBSERVATION - The transtifa (term I thing Junita Broderick recently coined) push toward violent actions is serving the purpose of generating a response on the opposite end of the spectrum. The marxists are seeking to cause an event where they can toss the constitution completely aside and crackdown on the right. An incident between Transtifa and elements like the “patriot boys” (largely led by federal agent provocateurs ) would serve the purpose well. Also remember Antifa will be in the mix as well on the side of the trans agitators. Rising transactivism my well break open into broader violence this summer.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
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Concerns being raise about the substantial increase of Chinese men pushing across the southern border. Some think they may be elements of unconventional warfare forces that would conduct sabotage attacks in the US in conjunction with an invasion of Taiwan. The men are unaccompanied and of military age.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is reportedly moving towards the eastern Med & a Squadron of A-10 aircraft have sent to the region, most likely in response to Iran and Iranian backed militia attacks on US forces in eastern Syria.
POLITICAL FRONT –
This next week, Trump is reportedly scheduled to report to the Manhattan court house to turn himself in for arraignment. Extra security is reportedly being coordinated.
Meanwhile, the leaked grand jury results may have someone in hot water - either in the DA’s office or someone on the grand jury itself. Unauthorized release of a grand jury result is a felony offense and would provide one more piece in the foundation of Trump’s legal team’s effort to have any charges tossed.
The DA is also in hot water from congress as it appears he used federal money as part of his efforts to get Trump indicted. As such, he is subject to congressional oversight and has been called to testify before House committees.
NOTE - If the DA tries to make a show of this, it will backfire bigly and may well trigger a counter move by some Trump supporters. Any peaceful pro-Trump protest could be accosted by Antifa et al and turn real ugly fast.
North/South Korea –
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates a high level of activity around the complex, including the Experimental Light Water Reactor.
OBSERVATION – Analysts note the activity has in the past been commonly associated with the production of weapons grade plutonium and may indicate efforts to conduct a new test in the future or material to create warhead – or both. The underground test site has been refurbished / repaired and is capable of another test on little notice.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast. The failed offensive has cost the Russian army tens (hundred) thousands of deal/wounded and massive equipment losses.
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One year ago today: two Ukrainian helicopters evaded air-defense to enter Russian territory over Belgorod and strike a fuel depot causing a huge fire.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia police elements have been closely screening vehicles crossing the bridge leaving Crimea for Russia, creating large traffic jams.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian Intelligence is reporting that the number of Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea have Increased from 3 to at least 12 within the last 24 hours with 3 Submarines also on active deployment, potentially indicating that the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles towards Ukraine is possible in the near future.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . Weather has slowed some action down due to heavy snow. Wagner forces continue to press toward the city center from the northeastern corner of the city.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same struggle in the east with Russia making small gains at a high cost. The failure of Gerasimov’s directed offensive to seize Donbas by the end of March is pretty much absent from the Russian news cycle, but rest assured that his mortal enemy – Wagner Group – has not lost that point and will likely use it in the future to leverage more support from putin. Perhaps it is the reason Wagner has redoubled its efforts at Bakhmut.
NOTING the rumored deployment of Kalibr capable sea vessels – its about time for another Russian missile barrage. Also of note, Russian milbloggers are decrying the failure of Russia’s attack on the Ukraine power grid noting that power is restored and Ukraine is once again exporting electricity.
Israel –
See Syria below on airstrikes.
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Political turmoil regarding judicial reform is still simmering but not exploding out of control as both sides make efforts to sit down and work issues out.
Iran –
See Syria on renewed Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and supported militias facilities.
Iraq -
Deployment of additional USAF assets (A-10s) to the region will be staged out of Iraq, so expect additional Iranian militia activity against US facilities and supporting Iraqi elements.
Syria -
Reports of Israeli attacks on Ad-Dabaa Airfield, T4, an airfield near the village of Al-Qasir on the Lebanese border, Ash-Shairat Airfield. At least one strike was also reported on Hezbollah training bases and warehouses in Syria. The IRGC is putting its forces on alert in Syria. According to available information, at least 5 soldiers of the Syrian regime forces were killed during the attacks.
This is the third night of Israeli raids on different locations in Syria, hurting Iranian networks. IRGC had already threatened a response to airstrikes earlier this week. This is the third night of Airstrikes in Syria by Israel this week targeting IRGC backed militia activities.
OBSERVATION – Israel is continuing to pressure Iran and Hezbollah’s efforts to preposition assets for an eventual strike on Israel. Iran has also been expanding its efforts to fill the vaccum of Russian influence in the region. Expect Iran to launch some kind of an attack, possibly against US forces in eastern Syria soon in retaliation.
Misc of Note –
Massive tornado outbreaks in the south and midwest will likely continue as prime tornado season hit. Folks in tornado alley need to make plans and preparation as the season has already been very ugly and has spawned some very large storms.
Economic impacts will be rippling across the national economy as resources are directed to the affected regions and those regions become unable to ship their items elsewhere due to the destruction. The insurance industry will be increasingly hard pressed with the massive claims that will be coming in.
This is shaping up to be quite the week politically here in the US and any effort for the leftists to try to embarrass Trump will likely boomerang on them. Even the democrat base is not amused by the kangaroo court in NYC.
Economy –
Saudi Arabia says it will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. The move would likely raise oil prices, perhaps as much as to the $100/barrel price forecast earlier for summer.
The production cut as caused prices have by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began.
OBSERVATION – Oil consumption typically decreases as a result of a global recession and this reduction may be the OPEC + cartel trying to get a head of the game and cash in at the same time on the front end.
Invasion of Illegals –
“The fate of a Texas man remains unknown after a team of cartel gunmen took him out of a house in Laredo, Texas, and crossed him into the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas. The victim reportedly bragged about stealing $50,000 from CDN” -Breitbart
OBSERVATION – This is the latest in Mexican cartels crossing over into the US and exerting their influence in our country. No information on how the cartel got members into the country to execute the kidnap, nor how they were able to smuggle him out of the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden - “We need more money to plan for the 2nd pandemic.
There’s going to be another pandemic. We have to think ahead.”
OBSERVATION – Did biden just tip the hand of the globalists?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump announces he is going to NYC today and will report to the Manhattan courthouse to be arraigned tomorrow. Strong rumors that the presiding judge will slap a 30 day gag-order on him.
Walk carefully.
In related - assault on Trump from on a second axis. Special Counsel Jack Smith has “new and significant evidence” of potential Trump obstruction in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, according to a leak to The Washington Post.
OBSERVATION - Not satisfied to go after Trump on one avenue, the left continues its attack on this axis as well.
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From today’s Forward Observer posting is a very good summary of the so called “Restrict Act” that claims to target TicTok for closure in the US. It is far more. Citing it since they explain it so well – better than other sources I’ve been reading -
“The Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology (RESTRICT) Act will require the federal government to act against individuals and corporations deemed to pose a threat to U.S. national security. The White House and some legislators say the bill is necessary to protect data privacy and impede the spread of propaganda from China. Still, critics label the bill the PATRIOT Act 2.0. The bill is a broad expansion of executive power, imposes criminal penalties for what could be protected speech, and does not actually ban TikTok.
What you need to know:
• The RESTRICT Act is a broad expansion of executive power over the internet that attempts to circumvent oversight and accountability through the language of the bill: “Actions taken by the President and the Secretary, and the findings of the President and the Secretary, under this Act shall not be subject to administrative review or judicial review in any Federal court.”
• Proponents of the bill claim it is not intended to target individuals, but the language of the bill delineates individuals from foreign adversary-controlled technology companies and imposes criminal penalties on individuals for circumventing restrictions on “transactions” with banned apps and technologies which could include protected free speech activities.
• Enforcement of the criminal and civil penalties would require an escalation of internet surveillance of American citizens.
• Cryptocurrency proponents claim the bill could ban cryptocurrencies, and internet freedom advocates, including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, say the bill undermines the rights to free speech and association and could criminalize the use of technologies like Virtual Private Networks (VPN).
• Despite officials waving off concerns that the RESTRICT Act will only target corporations, widespread concerns remain that the bill would be used to pursue action against individual U.S. citizens.
• The House companion bill has not appeared yet, and the Senate bill is still in committee.”
OBSERVATION – This act is dangerous to American Freedom. Called a the Patriot Act 2.0, it clearly is a grave threat to our nation’s freedom.
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Progressive and supposedly moderate politicians are proposing a “Trans Bill of Rights” that would do the following:
- Force states to allow child mutilation
- Force little boys and girls to use the same bathroom
- Force teachers and students to use preferred pronouns
- Allow thought reform propaganda into schools
- Use the federal government to force states to allow child mutilation
It would amend to the 1964 civil rights act to make these directives.
OBSERVATION – The flood of sewage on the Transtifa agenda is totally incredible for volume and support by the powers that be. I really don’t think it has a chance in the House, but at this stage, anything goes.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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The United Nations Security Council rotates new members in as the president of the council on a monthly basis. This month it was Russia’s turn, making Vladimir Putin the president.
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Russian Mil-Blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was assassinated when a figurine containing 200g TNT exploded next to him. Aka Maksim Fomin, Tatarsky was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating Russia’s info space since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
Darya Trepova, a resident of St. Petersburg, has been detained on suspicion of murder, Interfax reported. Other reports indicate that the police are looking for Trepova’s husband, Dmitry Rylov. One report I read called Trepova a known anti-war activist. The investigation has grounds to believe that Trepova brought a box with a bust of Tatarsky with an explosive device in it to the Prigozhin friendly cafe.
Moscow intrigue takes over from here. Many consider the act assisted by insider information. As I’ve noted in my past posts, there has been considerable Russian infightings ongoing. Is this a warning to Wagner’s Prigozhin?. Tatarsky was a critic of Shoigu.
Another alternative is it was an Ukraine operation. Not as intriguing as the whole Kremlin/Moscow angle.
As I said, the Wagner – MoD feud is a knife fight and in this case has potentially bubbled to the surface.
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RUMINT-
Russian milbloggers are fretting that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut & Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between Orthodox Easter on Apr. 16 and Soviet Victory Day on May 9.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . In Bakhmut, unconfirmed reports that Ukranian forces have pulled back out of the eastern half of the city and are reforming on the western side of the rail line that goes N-S through the town. This action straightens out it line of defense and gives them flexability. Classic mobile defensive operation. Not much remaining in the eastern half of the city for Russian forces to utilize – the town is generally been leveled from the 6 months plus of fighting.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Russian Territory –
An explosion in a cafe in St. Petersburg where Propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky was holding an event. He is reportedly killed and six others were wounded.
OUTLOOK –
The Ukranian drawback of forces in Bakhmut is not a rout of the forces, but a designed defense in depth and troops apparently have been pulled back in an orderly manner. The new positions will reset the meat grinder for Russia as it has to face fresh defensive positions that haven’t been eroded away by incessant Russian artillery fire. This fight has a long, long way to go, especially considering that it has taken Russia over 6 months to get this far.
The only other are Russia is seeing any success is the area around Avdiivka where they are driving past a direct assault on the town, bypassing and trying to seal off resupply/reinforcement routes to the town from the west – northwest. Avdiivka has been a frontline city since 2014 and has been another meat grinder for Ukraine against Russia.
Will Ukraine kick off its offensive between April 16 – May 9th? I would be inclineded to look more towards the May 9th end of this suspected window. Ukraine mud will work against the home team just as it has against Russia. Their combined arms tactics necessitate the ability to maneuver and that maneuver is hampered currently. Such a window puts a propaganda ‘fear’ against the Russian forces.
Currently, it still doesn’t appear Russia has significantly reinforced its units in Ukraine with men or material and with the exception of the great fear of an attack towards Crimea have spread a lot of their forces laterally along the whole front. Ball will soon be in Ukraine’s court and we’ll just have to wait and see what they have up their sleeves.
Finland will officially join NATO tomorrow. The President will travel to Brussels and attend the accession ceremony at Nato HQ. Finland has a land border with Russia of around 800 miles long. It will be the 31st member and the 7th NATO state with a Baltic Sea coast.
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Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats are tracking to come in third place in Finland’s elections with the center-right National Coalition Party projected to win. Now they will get the first shot to form a coalition with the The Finns, a right-wing populist party dedicated to stopping the migrant invasion.
Israel –
Israeli warplanes launched yet another attack on Syria early on Sunday, striking a number of targets in the central Syrian city of Homs from Lebanese airspace, Syrian state-news outlet SANA reported. The strikes resulted in the wounding of five Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers and the infliction of some material damages.
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IDF helicopters and fighter jets were scrambled Sunday night, after an unidentified aircraft crossed into Israeli airspace from Syria. The aircraft was monitored by the IAF throughout the incident, an IDF spokesperson said. The aircraft apparently was a drone and was reportedly brought down using an EW-anti drone jammer system.