This is shaping up to be quite the week politically here in the US and any effort for the leftists to try to embarrass Trump will likely boomerang on them. Even the democrat base is not amused by the kangaroo court in NYC.
Economy –
Saudi Arabia says it will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. The move would likely raise oil prices, perhaps as much as to the $100/barrel price forecast earlier for summer.
The production cut as caused prices have by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began.
OBSERVATION – Oil consumption typically decreases as a result of a global recession and this reduction may be the OPEC + cartel trying to get a head of the game and cash in at the same time on the front end.
Invasion of Illegals –
“The fate of a Texas man remains unknown after a team of cartel gunmen took him out of a house in Laredo, Texas, and crossed him into the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas. The victim reportedly bragged about stealing $50,000 from CDN” -Breitbart
OBSERVATION – This is the latest in Mexican cartels crossing over into the US and exerting their influence in our country. No information on how the cartel got members into the country to execute the kidnap, nor how they were able to smuggle him out of the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden - “We need more money to plan for the 2nd pandemic.
There’s going to be another pandemic. We have to think ahead.”
OBSERVATION – Did biden just tip the hand of the globalists?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump announces he is going to NYC today and will report to the Manhattan courthouse to be arraigned tomorrow. Strong rumors that the presiding judge will slap a 30 day gag-order on him.
Walk carefully.
In related - assault on Trump from on a second axis. Special Counsel Jack Smith has “new and significant evidence” of potential Trump obstruction in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, according to a leak to The Washington Post.
OBSERVATION - Not satisfied to go after Trump on one avenue, the left continues its attack on this axis as well.
**
From today’s Forward Observer posting is a very good summary of the so called “Restrict Act” that claims to target TicTok for closure in the US. It is far more. Citing it since they explain it so well – better than other sources I’ve been reading -
“The Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology (RESTRICT) Act will require the federal government to act against individuals and corporations deemed to pose a threat to U.S. national security. The White House and some legislators say the bill is necessary to protect data privacy and impede the spread of propaganda from China. Still, critics label the bill the PATRIOT Act 2.0. The bill is a broad expansion of executive power, imposes criminal penalties for what could be protected speech, and does not actually ban TikTok.
What you need to know:
• The RESTRICT Act is a broad expansion of executive power over the internet that attempts to circumvent oversight and accountability through the language of the bill: “Actions taken by the President and the Secretary, and the findings of the President and the Secretary, under this Act shall not be subject to administrative review or judicial review in any Federal court.”
• Proponents of the bill claim it is not intended to target individuals, but the language of the bill delineates individuals from foreign adversary-controlled technology companies and imposes criminal penalties on individuals for circumventing restrictions on “transactions” with banned apps and technologies which could include protected free speech activities.
• Enforcement of the criminal and civil penalties would require an escalation of internet surveillance of American citizens.
• Cryptocurrency proponents claim the bill could ban cryptocurrencies, and internet freedom advocates, including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, say the bill undermines the rights to free speech and association and could criminalize the use of technologies like Virtual Private Networks (VPN).
• Despite officials waving off concerns that the RESTRICT Act will only target corporations, widespread concerns remain that the bill would be used to pursue action against individual U.S. citizens.
• The House companion bill has not appeared yet, and the Senate bill is still in committee.”
OBSERVATION – This act is dangerous to American Freedom. Called a the Patriot Act 2.0, it clearly is a grave threat to our nation’s freedom.
**
Progressive and supposedly moderate politicians are proposing a “Trans Bill of Rights” that would do the following:
- Force states to allow child mutilation
- Force little boys and girls to use the same bathroom
- Force teachers and students to use preferred pronouns
- Allow thought reform propaganda into schools
- Use the federal government to force states to allow child mutilation
It would amend to the 1964 civil rights act to make these directives.
OBSERVATION – The flood of sewage on the Transtifa agenda is totally incredible for volume and support by the powers that be. I really don’t think it has a chance in the House, but at this stage, anything goes.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
The United Nations Security Council rotates new members in as the president of the council on a monthly basis. This month it was Russia’s turn, making Vladimir Putin the president.
**
Russian Mil-Blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was assassinated when a figurine containing 200g TNT exploded next to him. Aka Maksim Fomin, Tatarsky was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating Russia’s info space since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
Darya Trepova, a resident of St. Petersburg, has been detained on suspicion of murder, Interfax reported. Other reports indicate that the police are looking for Trepova’s husband, Dmitry Rylov. One report I read called Trepova a known anti-war activist. The investigation has grounds to believe that Trepova brought a box with a bust of Tatarsky with an explosive device in it to the Prigozhin friendly cafe.
Moscow intrigue takes over from here. Many consider the act assisted by insider information. As I’ve noted in my past posts, there has been considerable Russian infightings ongoing. Is this a warning to Wagner’s Prigozhin?. Tatarsky was a critic of Shoigu.
Another alternative is it was an Ukraine operation. Not as intriguing as the whole Kremlin/Moscow angle.
As I said, the Wagner – MoD feud is a knife fight and in this case has potentially bubbled to the surface.
**
RUMINT-
Russian milbloggers are fretting that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut & Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between Orthodox Easter on Apr. 16 and Soviet Victory Day on May 9.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . In Bakhmut, unconfirmed reports that Ukranian forces have pulled back out of the eastern half of the city and are reforming on the western side of the rail line that goes N-S through the town. This action straightens out it line of defense and gives them flexability. Classic mobile defensive operation. Not much remaining in the eastern half of the city for Russian forces to utilize – the town is generally been leveled from the 6 months plus of fighting.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Russian Territory –
An explosion in a cafe in St. Petersburg where Propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky was holding an event. He is reportedly killed and six others were wounded.
OUTLOOK –
The Ukranian drawback of forces in Bakhmut is not a rout of the forces, but a designed defense in depth and troops apparently have been pulled back in an orderly manner. The new positions will reset the meat grinder for Russia as it has to face fresh defensive positions that haven’t been eroded away by incessant Russian artillery fire. This fight has a long, long way to go, especially considering that it has taken Russia over 6 months to get this far.
The only other are Russia is seeing any success is the area around Avdiivka where they are driving past a direct assault on the town, bypassing and trying to seal off resupply/reinforcement routes to the town from the west – northwest. Avdiivka has been a frontline city since 2014 and has been another meat grinder for Ukraine against Russia.
Will Ukraine kick off its offensive between April 16 – May 9th? I would be inclineded to look more towards the May 9th end of this suspected window. Ukraine mud will work against the home team just as it has against Russia. Their combined arms tactics necessitate the ability to maneuver and that maneuver is hampered currently. Such a window puts a propaganda ‘fear’ against the Russian forces.
Currently, it still doesn’t appear Russia has significantly reinforced its units in Ukraine with men or material and with the exception of the great fear of an attack towards Crimea have spread a lot of their forces laterally along the whole front. Ball will soon be in Ukraine’s court and we’ll just have to wait and see what they have up their sleeves.
Finland will officially join NATO tomorrow. The President will travel to Brussels and attend the accession ceremony at Nato HQ. Finland has a land border with Russia of around 800 miles long. It will be the 31st member and the 7th NATO state with a Baltic Sea coast.
**
Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats are tracking to come in third place in Finland’s elections with the center-right National Coalition Party projected to win. Now they will get the first shot to form a coalition with the The Finns, a right-wing populist party dedicated to stopping the migrant invasion.
Israel –
Israeli warplanes launched yet another attack on Syria early on Sunday, striking a number of targets in the central Syrian city of Homs from Lebanese airspace, Syrian state-news outlet SANA reported. The strikes resulted in the wounding of five Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers and the infliction of some material damages.
**
IDF helicopters and fighter jets were scrambled Sunday night, after an unidentified aircraft crossed into Israeli airspace from Syria. The aircraft was monitored by the IAF throughout the incident, an IDF spokesperson said. The aircraft apparently was a drone and was reportedly brought down using an EW-anti drone jammer system.
Democrat 'elites' are totalitarians... they want another show trial.
But I guess there might be everyday democrats who aren't thugs... do you have proof?
Thanks for all the hard work you put into these posts.
Impending indictment circus of Trump is sucking most of the oxygen out of my news feeds.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Increasing concerns being raised over the stability of Deutches Bank and the high level of bad loans and derivatives. DB has been closely watched for several years now as a potential source of economic collapse for Germany and the rest of Europe. Gotta have an economic collapse in order to RESET and build back better.
Economy –
Gasoline prices are quickly spiking to the $4/gallon level following the cuts in OPEC+ production.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden regime has said nothing about the killing of the 6 in the Christian School. Only thing out of their mouths are how endangered the Trans community is.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Los Angeles Board of Supervisors is deciding to “depopulate and decarcerate the Los Angeles County Jails?” This in the face of gang violence is up; murders of homeless people have skyrocketed; and Los Angeles has a violent crime rate higher than 90% of U.S. cities.
OBSERVATION – Hegelian dialect – create a problem, then propose the solution. Part of the solution is disarming Americans for promise of ‘security and safety’ along with a potential nationalized police force, replacing local ones. It is almost getting to the point of having to build a wall around parts of LA just to contain the criminal violence.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon says USS George HW Bush carrier was repositioned “as a precaution” due to “increased attacks from IRGC affiliated groups targeting our service members across across the area...but it’s still in the purview of EUCOM.”
**
The Chinese balloon that flew over the US earlier this year managed to gather intelligence from military bases for days before it was shot down, US media report.
The balloon was able to transmit data to Beijing in real time, NBC News reported, citing US officials. The craft picked up electronic signals rather than taking pictures, according to one official quoted by the network.
The White House didn’t confirm the report.
OBSERVATION – Well DUH!
**
The Philippine government on Monday identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China.
OBSERVATION – These new bases are in key positions near Taiwan and the South China Sea and China is really upset about them.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Donald Trump is expected to report this morning to the Manhattan court house to be charged with as many as 34 felony counts involving alleged falsification of business records, a source briefed on the procedures for the arraignment has said, according to Yahoo News.
However, reports are that Trump will not be cuffed, put in a cell, or even subject to a mug shot, though these are said to be typical procedures in many white-collar cases.
It is still uncertain if the judge will attempt to place a gag order on him.
OBSERVATION – The Manhattan DA is treading on very thin ice here. He knows the charges are bogus and any miscue to try to allow a spectacle of the matter will blowback on him doubly.
China –
China’s Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent three warships into the East China Sea Monday for a series of live-fire drills. The drills were in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s presence in the U.S. ahead of a scheduled meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). A PLA spokesperson said more military drills could take place if Tsai follows through with her plans to meet with McCarthy. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This is not unlike the response from pelosi’s visit last year. These seem a bit more restrained than last time though, potentially reflecting Chinese seeking not to have the push back from other nations and give them more reason to join in regional alliances against it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . In Bakhmut, reports that Ukranian forces have pulled back out of the eastern half of the city and are reforming on the western side of the rail line that goes N-S through the town have not been confirmed. What is still apparent is that Wagner has launched a renewed attack on the city center and though is gaining ground, they are bleeding bad. .
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 17 Shahed drones launched by Russian army overnight. Odessa was one of the principle targets.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Crimean front ———
Ukranian drone attack reported at Russian military base in Armyansk, Northern Crimea. This is at the narrow ‘neck’ of the peninsula where it connects to Ukraine proper.
OUTLOOK –
Russia continues to double down on the direct assault on Bakhmut – or should I say Wagner. Not sure at this stage if the MoD is directing Wagner operations or if they are doing so independently . They appear to have thrown away the encirclement tactic to resume direct, frontal assaults. The front line is a mess with Ukrainian counter attacks. One reporter called the scene one of bullets and bombs flying in all directions. There are some indicators that Ukraine “pull backs” may be luring Wagner into pre planned kill zones where they are destroyed, allowing Ukraine to retake the terrain.
Anticipate more bloody days in Bakhmut for both sides, but the losses for Russia/Wagner are getting to a strategic level – they are losing good quality soldiers, ones necessary to counter the Ukrainian offensive when the hammer strikes.
Russian launch of another limited Iranian drone strike overnight is the second in about a week. Numbers in the upper teens – very limited in comparison to when they were originally brought on line. Iran seems to have gotten their supply line in to Russia, though very limited. Second thing to note is that they drones are being used separate from Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. Back when Russia was having relative success in taking down the Ukraine power grid, large numbers of Iranian drones were launched to saturate air defenses, increasing the probability that the more powerful cruise and ballistic missiles would get thorough. It appears that Russian has abandoned that tactic as well as abandoned the strategic attack that was getting success (for once).
Syria -
Meetings underway in Moscow between the deputy foreign ministers of Russia, Syria, Iran, and Turkey, marking the highest level of talks between the four countries on the Syrian conflict.
OBSERVATION – Most likely being centered on activity in N Syria and trying to deconflict as Turkey has launched limited ground invasions against Kurds in the region and have shown no reluctance to engage any Russian/Syrian/Iranian elements that they deem to be in their way.
**
Israeli aviation carried out an air attack with bursts of missiles from the Golan Heights, targeting the vicinity of Damascus and the southern region. Believed to be Iranian and Hezbollah facilities. This would be the 4th attack in a row, and may also be directed at taking out IRGC leadership as two of the previous strikes have.