Impending indictment circus of Trump is sucking most of the oxygen out of my news feeds.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Increasing concerns being raised over the stability of Deutches Bank and the high level of bad loans and derivatives. DB has been closely watched for several years now as a potential source of economic collapse for Germany and the rest of Europe. Gotta have an economic collapse in order to RESET and build back better.
Economy –
Gasoline prices are quickly spiking to the $4/gallon level following the cuts in OPEC+ production.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden regime has said nothing about the killing of the 6 in the Christian School. Only thing out of their mouths are how endangered the Trans community is.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Los Angeles Board of Supervisors is deciding to “depopulate and decarcerate the Los Angeles County Jails?” This in the face of gang violence is up; murders of homeless people have skyrocketed; and Los Angeles has a violent crime rate higher than 90% of U.S. cities.
OBSERVATION – Hegelian dialect – create a problem, then propose the solution. Part of the solution is disarming Americans for promise of ‘security and safety’ along with a potential nationalized police force, replacing local ones. It is almost getting to the point of having to build a wall around parts of LA just to contain the criminal violence.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon says USS George HW Bush carrier was repositioned “as a precaution” due to “increased attacks from IRGC affiliated groups targeting our service members across across the area...but it’s still in the purview of EUCOM.”
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The Chinese balloon that flew over the US earlier this year managed to gather intelligence from military bases for days before it was shot down, US media report.
The balloon was able to transmit data to Beijing in real time, NBC News reported, citing US officials. The craft picked up electronic signals rather than taking pictures, according to one official quoted by the network.
The White House didn’t confirm the report.
OBSERVATION – Well DUH!
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The Philippine government on Monday identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China.
OBSERVATION – These new bases are in key positions near Taiwan and the South China Sea and China is really upset about them.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Donald Trump is expected to report this morning to the Manhattan court house to be charged with as many as 34 felony counts involving alleged falsification of business records, a source briefed on the procedures for the arraignment has said, according to Yahoo News.
However, reports are that Trump will not be cuffed, put in a cell, or even subject to a mug shot, though these are said to be typical procedures in many white-collar cases.
It is still uncertain if the judge will attempt to place a gag order on him.
OBSERVATION – The Manhattan DA is treading on very thin ice here. He knows the charges are bogus and any miscue to try to allow a spectacle of the matter will blowback on him doubly.
China –
China’s Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent three warships into the East China Sea Monday for a series of live-fire drills. The drills were in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s presence in the U.S. ahead of a scheduled meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). A PLA spokesperson said more military drills could take place if Tsai follows through with her plans to meet with McCarthy. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This is not unlike the response from pelosi’s visit last year. These seem a bit more restrained than last time though, potentially reflecting Chinese seeking not to have the push back from other nations and give them more reason to join in regional alliances against it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. The Donbas region was a recent recipient of a substantial snow storm, with up to 2 feet of the white stuff.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut . In Bakhmut, reports that Ukranian forces have pulled back out of the eastern half of the city and are reforming on the western side of the rail line that goes N-S through the town have not been confirmed. What is still apparent is that Wagner has launched a renewed attack on the city center and though is gaining ground, they are bleeding bad. .
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 17 Shahed drones launched by Russian army overnight. Odessa was one of the principle targets.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Crimean front ———
Ukranian drone attack reported at Russian military base in Armyansk, Northern Crimea. This is at the narrow ‘neck’ of the peninsula where it connects to Ukraine proper.
OUTLOOK –
Russia continues to double down on the direct assault on Bakhmut – or should I say Wagner. Not sure at this stage if the MoD is directing Wagner operations or if they are doing so independently . They appear to have thrown away the encirclement tactic to resume direct, frontal assaults. The front line is a mess with Ukrainian counter attacks. One reporter called the scene one of bullets and bombs flying in all directions. There are some indicators that Ukraine “pull backs” may be luring Wagner into pre planned kill zones where they are destroyed, allowing Ukraine to retake the terrain.
Anticipate more bloody days in Bakhmut for both sides, but the losses for Russia/Wagner are getting to a strategic level – they are losing good quality soldiers, ones necessary to counter the Ukrainian offensive when the hammer strikes.
Russian launch of another limited Iranian drone strike overnight is the second in about a week. Numbers in the upper teens – very limited in comparison to when they were originally brought on line. Iran seems to have gotten their supply line in to Russia, though very limited. Second thing to note is that they drones are being used separate from Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. Back when Russia was having relative success in taking down the Ukraine power grid, large numbers of Iranian drones were launched to saturate air defenses, increasing the probability that the more powerful cruise and ballistic missiles would get thorough. It appears that Russian has abandoned that tactic as well as abandoned the strategic attack that was getting success (for once).
Syria -
Meetings underway in Moscow between the deputy foreign ministers of Russia, Syria, Iran, and Turkey, marking the highest level of talks between the four countries on the Syrian conflict.
OBSERVATION – Most likely being centered on activity in N Syria and trying to deconflict as Turkey has launched limited ground invasions against Kurds in the region and have shown no reluctance to engage any Russian/Syrian/Iranian elements that they deem to be in their way.
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Israeli aviation carried out an air attack with bursts of missiles from the Golan Heights, targeting the vicinity of Damascus and the southern region. Believed to be Iranian and Hezbollah facilities. This would be the 4th attack in a row, and may also be directed at taking out IRGC leadership as two of the previous strikes have.
Our world has rapidly changed for the worse as the US drifts into banana republic wastelands. Very evident that the left has tossed any regards for the constitution and rule of law completely aside and replaced it with the ends justifies the means mentality.
Economy –
The number of U.S. job openings in February fell to a 21-month low, while orders for manufactured goods fell for the third time in the past four months.
OBSERVATION – Our economy is suffering from many things – wuhan aftershocks and now the monetary policies of the Fed. These indicators are point to a definite recesson, and one that wont be very nice to deal with.
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According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Prospective Plantings report, farmers intend to plant fewer acres of spring wheat than they have since 1972. The report also noted that soybean acreage was up 0.1% and corn acreage was up 4% from last year. This is reportedly due to continued drought conditions in some areas of the wheat producing regions combined with increased demands for biofuels.
Biden / Harris watch –
See Saudi Arabia re: the Crown Prince’s take on biden.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Things were relatively calm in NYC with the Trump indictments, a lot of shouting. If the left sees their ‘golden ticket’ morphing into a fake, it is hard to say how they will take it.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Yesterday’s circus in Manhattan has only made the case for prosecutorial misconduct. Now released, knowledgeable folks on both sides of the political spectrum were banging their collective heads against the wall over the gross incompetence of moving forward with these ‘indictments’. One of the most significant common points were that there were no laws actually being cited as being broken. NOT A SINGLE FEDERAL OR STATE LAW WAS CITED AS BEING BROKEN. The DA claimed that there was no need to do so – that it was Trumps intent that mattered. The Constitution and existing laws blow that argument apart.
Robert Barnes notes –
“The indictment is legally insufficient on its face. New York state law does not make it a crime to influence an election. Federal law does not make it a crime either. Maybe that’s why no law is actually cited in the indictment. Nor are the facts sufficient.”
Andrew McCarthy, a senior fellow at National Review Institute and a former assistant U.S. attorney notes –
“So I think this indictment—even before you get to the statute of limitations and whether he’s got jurisdiction to enforce federal law—I would dismiss it on its face because it fails to state a crime. Here it fails to state a crime 34 times!””
Second part of the circus is the grossly bias of the presiding judge as a hard core democrat with a very politically active, hard core lefty daughter. I think the judge did pull back from the third rail by not issuing a gag order but ‘warning’ either side to watch their rhetoric (though the DA disregarded that in his totally laughable press conference).
Make no doubt about it, yesterday took the rails off and now anything goes. Remember when the democrat senate took the filibuster rule off for a vote -they opened the door for republicans to do the same. If Democrats want to play the part of a banana republic – its time the republicans grow a pair and do the same with equal and greater passion and determination.
China –
“China does not recognize Crimea as Russian, like other territories of Ukraine “included” in the Russian Federation” - Chinese Ambassador to the EU via NYT.
OBSERVATION – China now knows that it will own Russia if it doesn’t already. Even so, this is a very revealing comment from Russia’ so called strong ally.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russia and the United States are now in a phase of hot conflict, - said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
RUMINT-
Rumblings that the MoD is looking to put Wagner Grp forces out to pasture. Putin reportedly now seeing Wagner as a serious threat to his power.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Gen. Rustam Muradov led RU troops into the fiasco at Vuhledar, losing 2 brigades of marines, 103 vehicles and 36 tanks. He’s now been fired from his post as commander in Ukraine- 7 months after his appointment.
Economic Impact –
Major Russian bank VTB reports $7.7 bn loss due to sanctions
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian milbloggers are saying that the fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut is stalling out. In Bakhmut, though Russia has been able over the past several months to claw away the eastern half of the city, Ukraine remains strongly entrenched in the western half. This in spite of this weeks attempt by Wagner forces to overwhelm the city center with significant numbers of troops.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same with fighting still focused on Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Intensity has fluxuated on a daily basis, so claims that the Russian efforts in those locations will need to be evaluated to see if the observations of Russian milbloggers and other sources are correct.
Noted articles regarding the massive superiority in the amount of Russia artillery and that will seal the fate of any Ukraine offensive. The writers of those articles are likely basing their information on year old information. Russian artillery is no where near the 10:1 or so advantaged it had during the early part of the war. Ukraine has seriously attritted it through a far more effective counterbattery fire system, more successful seeking out artillery positions and hitting them, Russian attrition due to poor maintenance, poor equipment standards (poor grade of steel in tubes, resulting in short life and failures) and the big one of constant pressure on and destruction of ammo depots. Russian guns still can bring local overwhelming fires, when coordinated and ammo available. Recent action show that lack of tubes and shells has had an impact. Russia can now only support with its steel curtain approach to offensive action like at Bakhmut across a much, much narrower front and limits the use of artillery along other sectors of the front. This in comparison to last summer’s Russian action at Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk where the artillery steel curtain method allowed Russian forces to advance on a much broader axis.
More evidence is that Russia is using older and older ammo stocks, in some instances so old that there is nearly a 60% plus failure rate (non-explosions).
One other thing being observed is that Russian troops appear to be severely lacking anti-tank systems as simple as the RPG-7 line. This has been very evident from posted videos of Ukrainian tanks pulling right up to trench lines occupied with Russian and firing into them with out fear of destruction from AT weapons. Very similar with follow-up APC direct firing into same trenches from close range while supporting ground attacks. This does not bode well for Russia when the Ukraine offensive begins as such shortages will permit these heavy guns to blast Russian fortified positions at point blank range with nothing to stop them with. Not sure Russian planner have these shortages on their radar screen at all.
NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Secretary of State Blinken on what he described as a historic day as the alliance prepares to welcome Finland as its 31st member state
Israel –
Hamas launched rockets into Israel in protest of police actions on the temple mount. In response to rocket fire, the IDF struck weapon manufacturing sites and a storage site belonging to Hamas, in addition to a military compound used for training terrorist operatives. IDF tanks also struck military posts along the security fence.
OBSERVATION – Pretty common tit for tat that doesn’t look like it will escalate.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince says he doesn’t care to please the U.S. anymore just weeks after he said he does ‘not care’ what Biden thinks of him.
OBSERVATION – Biden has regressed US foreign policy back multiple decades. Not that we should kiss the hem of the crown prince, but leadership and respect that have been earned by presidents over the years has been tossed aside under biden.