Our world has rapidly changed for the worse as the US drifts into banana republic wastelands. Very evident that the left has tossed any regards for the constitution and rule of law completely aside and replaced it with the ends justifies the means mentality.
Economy –
The number of U.S. job openings in February fell to a 21-month low, while orders for manufactured goods fell for the third time in the past four months.
OBSERVATION – Our economy is suffering from many things – wuhan aftershocks and now the monetary policies of the Fed. These indicators are point to a definite recesson, and one that wont be very nice to deal with.
**
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Prospective Plantings report, farmers intend to plant fewer acres of spring wheat than they have since 1972. The report also noted that soybean acreage was up 0.1% and corn acreage was up 4% from last year. This is reportedly due to continued drought conditions in some areas of the wheat producing regions combined with increased demands for biofuels.
Biden / Harris watch –
See Saudi Arabia re: the Crown Prince’s take on biden.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Things were relatively calm in NYC with the Trump indictments, a lot of shouting. If the left sees their ‘golden ticket’ morphing into a fake, it is hard to say how they will take it.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Yesterday’s circus in Manhattan has only made the case for prosecutorial misconduct. Now released, knowledgeable folks on both sides of the political spectrum were banging their collective heads against the wall over the gross incompetence of moving forward with these ‘indictments’. One of the most significant common points were that there were no laws actually being cited as being broken. NOT A SINGLE FEDERAL OR STATE LAW WAS CITED AS BEING BROKEN. The DA claimed that there was no need to do so – that it was Trumps intent that mattered. The Constitution and existing laws blow that argument apart.
Robert Barnes notes –
“The indictment is legally insufficient on its face. New York state law does not make it a crime to influence an election. Federal law does not make it a crime either. Maybe that’s why no law is actually cited in the indictment. Nor are the facts sufficient.”
Andrew McCarthy, a senior fellow at National Review Institute and a former assistant U.S. attorney notes –
“So I think this indictment—even before you get to the statute of limitations and whether he’s got jurisdiction to enforce federal law—I would dismiss it on its face because it fails to state a crime. Here it fails to state a crime 34 times!””
Second part of the circus is the grossly bias of the presiding judge as a hard core democrat with a very politically active, hard core lefty daughter. I think the judge did pull back from the third rail by not issuing a gag order but ‘warning’ either side to watch their rhetoric (though the DA disregarded that in his totally laughable press conference).
Make no doubt about it, yesterday took the rails off and now anything goes. Remember when the democrat senate took the filibuster rule off for a vote -they opened the door for republicans to do the same. If Democrats want to play the part of a banana republic – its time the republicans grow a pair and do the same with equal and greater passion and determination.
China –
“China does not recognize Crimea as Russian, like other territories of Ukraine “included” in the Russian Federation” - Chinese Ambassador to the EU via NYT.
OBSERVATION – China now knows that it will own Russia if it doesn’t already. Even so, this is a very revealing comment from Russia’ so called strong ally.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia and the United States are now in a phase of hot conflict, - said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
RUMINT-
Rumblings that the MoD is looking to put Wagner Grp forces out to pasture. Putin reportedly now seeing Wagner as a serious threat to his power.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Gen. Rustam Muradov led RU troops into the fiasco at Vuhledar, losing 2 brigades of marines, 103 vehicles and 36 tanks. He’s now been fired from his post as commander in Ukraine- 7 months after his appointment.
Economic Impact –
Major Russian bank VTB reports $7.7 bn loss due to sanctions
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian milbloggers are saying that the fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut is stalling out. In Bakhmut, though Russia has been able over the past several months to claw away the eastern half of the city, Ukraine remains strongly entrenched in the western half. This in spite of this weeks attempt by Wagner forces to overwhelm the city center with significant numbers of troops.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same with fighting still focused on Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Intensity has fluxuated on a daily basis, so claims that the Russian efforts in those locations will need to be evaluated to see if the observations of Russian milbloggers and other sources are correct.
Noted articles regarding the massive superiority in the amount of Russia artillery and that will seal the fate of any Ukraine offensive. The writers of those articles are likely basing their information on year old information. Russian artillery is no where near the 10:1 or so advantaged it had during the early part of the war. Ukraine has seriously attritted it through a far more effective counterbattery fire system, more successful seeking out artillery positions and hitting them, Russian attrition due to poor maintenance, poor equipment standards (poor grade of steel in tubes, resulting in short life and failures) and the big one of constant pressure on and destruction of ammo depots. Russian guns still can bring local overwhelming fires, when coordinated and ammo available. Recent action show that lack of tubes and shells has had an impact. Russia can now only support with its steel curtain approach to offensive action like at Bakhmut across a much, much narrower front and limits the use of artillery along other sectors of the front. This in comparison to last summer’s Russian action at Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk where the artillery steel curtain method allowed Russian forces to advance on a much broader axis.
More evidence is that Russia is using older and older ammo stocks, in some instances so old that there is nearly a 60% plus failure rate (non-explosions).
One other thing being observed is that Russian troops appear to be severely lacking anti-tank systems as simple as the RPG-7 line. This has been very evident from posted videos of Ukrainian tanks pulling right up to trench lines occupied with Russian and firing into them with out fear of destruction from AT weapons. Very similar with follow-up APC direct firing into same trenches from close range while supporting ground attacks. This does not bode well for Russia when the Ukraine offensive begins as such shortages will permit these heavy guns to blast Russian fortified positions at point blank range with nothing to stop them with. Not sure Russian planner have these shortages on their radar screen at all.
NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Secretary of State Blinken on what he described as a historic day as the alliance prepares to welcome Finland as its 31st member state
Israel –
Hamas launched rockets into Israel in protest of police actions on the temple mount. In response to rocket fire, the IDF struck weapon manufacturing sites and a storage site belonging to Hamas, in addition to a military compound used for training terrorist operatives. IDF tanks also struck military posts along the security fence.
OBSERVATION – Pretty common tit for tat that doesn’t look like it will escalate.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince says he doesn’t care to please the U.S. anymore just weeks after he said he does ‘not care’ what Biden thinks of him.
OBSERVATION – Biden has regressed US foreign policy back multiple decades. Not that we should kiss the hem of the crown prince, but leadership and respect that have been earned by presidents over the years has been tossed aside under biden.
Trump makes the monsters show their true colors... We still have time .
Globalism / Great Reset –
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in his annual shareholder letter Tuesday that the government may need to seize private property to advance clean energy initiatives.
Dimon discussed the need to quickly begin investing in solar projects and other green initiatives and suggested that the government should use eminent domain to seize property for those projects.
“At the same time, permitting reforms are desperately needed to allow investment to be done in any kind of timely way. We may even need to evoke [sic] eminent domain – we simply are not getting the adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives,” Dimon wrote.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/04/05/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-eminent-domain-green-energy/
OBSERVATION – Coming soon to a community, farm or ranch near you.
**
The CDC had said in documents and public statements that the goal of the new codes, in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) system, was “to track people who are not immunized or only partially immunized.”
The CDC now says it does not have access to the data, but that health care systems do.
“The ICD codes were implemented in April 2022, however the CDC does not have any data on the codes and does not track this information,” CDC officials said in the emails.
CDC also stated that the WHO is the source of the creation of these codes.
OBSERVATION – Another step in the global tracking of individuals under the banner of the wuhan plandemic. Future Orwellian applications are more than readily apparent.
**
According to reports quoting Russian lawmaker Alexander Babakov, the BRICS nations are in the process of creating a new medium for payments – established on a strategy that “does not defend the dollar or euro”. He reportedly indicated that the new currency would be secured by gold and other commodities such as rare-earth elements.
OBSERVATION – This could potentially impact the US dollar in about 3-5 years according to some ‘experts’, short a major, global event. The dollar has been the reserve currency of the world for a very long time and has been the leverage for many sanctions pushed by the US in recent years. Both Russia (facing current sanctions) and China (facing potential sanctions) are laying the ground work to mitigate sanctions. This will also challenge the US domination of the global commerce. Were the US dollar to lose its reserve currency status, an equivalent magnitude 10 earthquake would hit the US economy. Biden’s handling of foreign policy has accelerated the growing BRICS problem.
**
The Fed just announced it will introduce its “FedNow” Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in July. The Fed will initially limit its CBDC to interbank transactions .
OBSERVATION – Remember the phrase from over a decade ago -INCRAMENTALISM – here it is at work. The old frog in a pot. In this case, the fed is structuring the system for relatively quick switchover to the full fledged CBDC being forced on all persons for all transactions, with the eventual folding in of social credit score and programmed ‘allowable’ spending.
Wuhan virus –
See non-vax’d tracking under Globalism / Great Reset above.
CW2/Domestic violence –
DOJ admits that of the 13 Proud Boys involved with J6, eight or more of them were paid by the FBI to provide the government information about the group. The FBI was the majority of Proud Boys - only 5 are being prosecuted. The DoJ also admits that another 40 undercover agents were with the Proud Boys on J6 - from HSI - Homeland Security Investigations. The vast majority of the group was paid by the government as either W2 employees or CHS.
OBSERVATION – Being posted here under CW2 because it is evidence of the regime working to ferment events that would permit them to crack down on politicial opposition. Every and I mean EVERY patriot group must take measures to identify these agent provocateurs and remove them from their organization and neutralize any potential acts at rallies or other events.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
From June 12-23, NATO will execute “Air Defender 2023” with 10,000 troops and 220 aircraft across Europe. This exercise will be the largest the alliance has ever conducted and will include newly added Finland and Sweden. The Air National Guard from 35 U.S. states will send 100 aircraft and 2000 troops to participate.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More reverberations from the Trump indictment. Most interesting on my radar are DAs from red states looking into how they can apply the same to democrats.
China –
Speaker McCarthy met with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. China responded by sailing the Shandong Carrier Strike Group near Taiwan and demanding to board and inspect all vessels in the Taiwan Strait for the next three days. The exercise launched by China involves the deployment of forces to two zones to the east of Taiwan. There is nothing to prevent the Chinese from extending that period. Taiwan said it would refuse all boarding requests and contact the Taiwanese Coast Guard.
OBSERVATION – This is a serious escalation of pressure by China. The threat to board and inspect is a direct aggression not only towards Taiwan but internation shipping in general – much of which passes through the region. This is a borderline blockaide. Should the Taiwan CG respond to a forced boarding, shooting could commence.
The Nimitz CSG is currently exercising with S Korean forces and could be redeployed to the Taiwan region on short notice. This could turn into a game of chicken, one that biden may likely blink.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
French diplomatic source: Macron urged Xi not to provide arms to Russia, Xi said it was not his war
**
The head of Russia’s private Wagner militia said on Thursday that Ukrainian forces were not abandoning the city of Bakhmut but that, even if they did, he would need more support from the regular military before trying to advance further.
NOTE - One needs to hold this guy’s assessments and comments out at arms length. He is locked in a behind the doors knife fight with the MoD and he is leveraging his statement - essentially saying Wagner could win the war if the MoD would provide all the support it desires. Also note - Early in the war, internal Russian fighting for resources were one of many reasons their logistics go to constipated and couldn’t resupply their forces. See that they haven’t learned this lesson.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut still appears to be stalling ou for Russia. Zelensky yesterday said they were monitoring the situation in the city and will pull forces back should the situation require. Bakhmut is strategically important to Ukraine because of Russian doggedness and drive to capture the city – to gain a PR victory – because it is such a Russian meatgrinder. Clearly, Zelensky is weighing if the defense is reaching a point of diminishing returns as it is an economy of force operation and reinforcing it would take away forces being mustered for his offensive.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to increase when weather improves. Delays in Russia’s pressing of attacks takes away from its initiative/momentum and gives Ukraine a chance to regroup and reorganize.
Reported removal of Mig-31K from Belarus (see below) has interesting implementations regarding if Russia has sufficient “hypersonic” missiles these air craft are designed to carry.
Speaking of missile strikes, the likelihood of a new barrage is increasing and perhaps they will try targeting assembly areas of the units Ukraine is putting together for their offensive. Ukraine must execute excellent OPSEC and not get lax.
Belarus -
Russia reportedly moving all 3 Mig-31K from Belarus back to Russia
Israel –
A barrage of about 34 (100?) missiles were launched from southern Lebanon in 10 minutes at N Israel overnight by Islamic factions (PIJ likely included) not technically affiliated with Hezebollah. Israeli news sources state that most of the rockets fired from Lebanon are Katyusha and Grad models. A few rockets were also reported being fired from Gaza towards S Israel.
IDF Artillery fired retaliatory strikes. Northern airspace has been reportedly closed. At this stage Israeli airstrikes have not occurred nor have been ruled out. Hezebollah has warned against any retaliatory airstrikes.
UNIFIL have ordered their members to enter bomb shelters on the border.
Lebanon govt says it will open an investigation, in cooperation with UNIFIL, to find out who is responsible for launching the rockets.
OBSERVATION – Today is the start of Passover – so the timing is clear. Hamas and PIJ elements in Gaza are quiet, allowing affiliated groups in Lebanon to do their dirty work.
In 2021 and 2022 rockets were launched from Lebanon into Israel. They do so under a limited umbrella of protection by Hezebollah who lets nothing happen without their approval. However, it seems this is the largest attack from Lebanon by non-Hezebollah forces to date.
The current use of artillery vs air strikes suggests that Israel is not trying to escalate the situation. Primary since this is Passover. Were this any other time, I suspect Israel would be more aggressive in its retaliation.
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The Foreign Minister’s meeting with his Saudi counterpart was positive, and it can be said that official relations between the two countries have been activated.
OBSERVATION – This is one of the many biden foreign policies “mistakes” (I don’t think they are mistakes, but deliberate) that are making the world a less safer place.
**
Student poisonings have resumed in Iran, indicating that the regime has failed to take the necessary security measures to permanently prevent these attacks.
OBSERVATION – The imans in Tehran mouthed a relaxation of policies, but now are resuming giving the blind eye to hardliners in their group to continue to attack young women as a way to oppress them. This will only add more fuel to the fire when the populace finally explodes.
Lebanon -
See Islamic radical factions firing rockets on Israel below.
Saudi Arabia –
See Iran on restored diplomatic relations.
Mexico -
Mexican president essentially called the US a “Banana Republic” in regards to the politically inspired indictments of Trump
Misc of Note –
There have been at least 478 tornado reports across 25 states so far this year and that’s double the average for this point in a year.
OBSERVATION – We are transitioning out of a prolonged La Nina cycle towards a potential El Nino. The weather will be unsettled for the year across the country. Be ready and situationally aware.
Also, with substantially above average snowpack across the west, increasing concerns of spring flooding are going up. If you are on a flood plain – get your act together now for potential evacuation.