Happy Good Friday to all Christians out there. Today we recognize the great price paid for our lives to cancel out sin. I recommend any who have doubts about just how high a price that was paid should sit down and watch the “Passion”. I will, just to remind myself again.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The UK just announced it wants to force farmers to feed their cows red seaweed based ‘methane blockers’ to stop them from farting and burping. Guess who invested $12m into a company that produces red seaweed methane blockers 2 months ago?
Bill Gates.
Wuhan virus –
Missed this in yesterday’s post –
On April 3, 2023, the now retired Dr. Fauci made an appearance at a townhall discussion with Jim Acosta at James Madison University. In the discussion, Dr. Fauci states that “there will absolutely be an outbreak of another pandemic.” He then suggests it could be “next year” or it could be in our “grandchildren’s lifetimes.”
Economy –
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
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West Texas is one month away from cotton planting season, but the land is so dry farmers fear they won’t even be able to plant. Travis Mires, a farmer in O’Donnell, Texas, said, “I’ve been farming for 40-something years, and last year was the first year I didn’t have a row of cotton on any of my farms. We didn’t even get our irrigated up. Without some help from mother nature, with our limited irrigation, we can’t grow a crop.”
OBSERVATION – Drought conditions have eased for most of the rest of the west. Continuing drought conditions are hitting Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Wheat crops are especially at risk.
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The Pacific Fishery Management Council on Thursday approved the closure of the 2023 season for all commercial and most recreational chinook fishing along the coast from Cape Falcon in northern Oregon to the California-Mexico border. Limited recreational salmon fishing will be allowed off southern Oregon in the fall.
“The forecasts for Chinook returning to California rivers this year are near record lows,” Council Chair Marc Gorelnik said after the vote in a news release. “The poor conditions in the freshwater environment that contributed to these low forecasted returns are unfortunately not something that the Council can, or has authority to, control.”
OBSERVATION – If you like salmon – better stock up now as there will be shortages in the coming months with even higher prices.
Invasion of Illegals –
Recent tweet by Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz that in the last 48 hours, 10,070 apprehensions were made. These included 5 sex offenders, 4 outstanding warrants, and one gang member. There were tens of pounds of drugs confiscated including Fentanyl, Ecstasy, Meth, and Cocaine. Firearms and stolen vehicles were recovered, too.
Border agents in Texas have encountered several large groups in recent weeks. The agency considers groups of more than 100 “large groups.”
Also on Monday, agents in El Paso uncovered two stash houses holding 146 migrants in the city’s Lower Valley.
OBSERVATION – Remember, Title 42 is still in effect for a little while longer. Illegal immigration observers are noting a significant rise in other countries arriving in border areas ready to take advantage of the even greater open border.
Biden / Harris watch –
Strong Intelligence indicates IRA factions plotting terror attacks against police officers ahead of Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak’s arrival in Northern Ireland to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement
OBSERVATION – IRA still around? And why is biden going to Ireland anyway with all the dumpster fires hitting the country and world? Oh that’s why.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Preface for today – violence created by Transtifa is the new BLM/Antifa violence threat to America now. Granted, Antifa will be there hand in hand, any event that pushes back against the radical Transtifa agenda will be met by violence from trans activists (backed by Antifa). There are indicators that Transtifa will resort to lethal methods to push their agenda.
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Two Tennessee Democrats were expelled from the Tennessee General Assembly by the Republican supermajority-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday. The third state representative facing expulsion held her seat by a margin of only one vote on a historic day in the Tennessee legislature. The close vote came as a shock, as eight Republican lawmakers broke ranks to vote against the expulsion of Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knox County.
Resolutions to expel the members were introduced on April 3 after the lawmakers led protesters with a bullhorn in chants calling for tighter restrictions on gun rights while on the House floor. This came after the deadly Covenant School shooting in Nashville the week before.
OBSERVATION – This could be the start of a significant push back against leftist terror at the state level. I certainly hope this is the case as republicans have been too spineless over the year to give the democrats a taste of their own medicine. Dem Johnson claims her retention was an act of racism. Funny, I don’t see her resigning any time soon.
The hybred leftist protest of pro-trans / anti gun is exposing the riot manifest of the left for this coming summer (and beyond?). The transtifa elements are increasingly violent and this is not good see below.
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Violent trans radicals assaulted Riley Gaines at a TPUSA event on campus at SFSU tonight. She is still barricaded inside an undisclosed location as they work to get her to safety. Videos show her being assaulted by men claiming to be ‘women’ as she is hurried to a safe room. Her guilt is speaking out against men participating in women’s swimming events.
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The Biden Education Department just dropped new Title IX rules that bar schools that receive federal funding from enforcing policies that ban biological males from playing girl’s sports. The proposed regulations must undergo a period of public comment before they become law. It would ban schools from categorically students from competing with the sex they identify as but give room for schools to consider “fairness” for older students.
Even with this threat, more states are barring biological men from women’s sporting events.
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William Whitworth, a 19-year-old male who claims to be female and goes by the name “Lilly,” has been arrested in Colorado Springs, Colo., after threatening various local schools. Whitworth has been charged with two counts of criminal attempt to commit murder in the first degree, as well as criminal mischief, menacing, and more.
When the deputies asked Whitworth if he was planning to shoot up a school, he nodded. When they asked him why he would do such a thing, Whitworth replied: “Why does anyone do it?” He was then asked if he planned this massacre at Timberview Middle School, which he had attended, and he nodded again. Asked why he picked that school, he mumbled: “No specific reason.” He added that he also planned shootings at local churches.
OBSERVATION – Recent Transtifa and other leftist rhetoric (even from the WH) is encouraging this kind of violent behavior.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Nimitz Strike Group is moving to the Philippine Sea with one carrier, at least three destroyers, and a cruiser following the S Korean exercises.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he is stepping in to challenge the Democratic incumbent for his party’s nomination in the upcoming presidential election.
OBSERVATION – Very interesting development. From what I’ve been able to gather he is a moderate which puts him very much to the far right of most of today’s democrat party. Will this accelerate the Marxist left’s discarding of biden in exchange for Newsom?
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Manhattan DA removed the Trump indictment from its site on the *same* morning that Jim Jordan subpoenaed former Manhattan DA Mark Pomerantz to testify about why he resigned last yr over Bragg dropping Trump charges.
The subpoena directs Pomerantz to appear before the committee April 20th.
OBSERVATION – The saga continues. Is Bragg feeling more heat?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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There appears to be a religious conflict brewing in Russia between Muslims & Christians, which erupted after protests started against the constructions of a mega-mosque in Moscow. Overnight, militants attacked Russian security forces in 2 villages in Ingushetia. 2 policemen killed,6 wounded. Muslims also burned down an orthodox church in Russia a few days ago.
Logistics –
Russian forces may have withdrawn equipment from occupied Crimea for redeployment elsewhere in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery shows the withdrawal of a significant amount of armored fighting vehicles, tanks, and towed artillery systems from a depot in Medvedivka (20km northeast of Dzhankoy along the M18 highway) between March 17 and April 5. Some analysts believe it is in response to growing concerns over Ukraine’s planned offensive.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues. . Russian forces are conducting frontal attacks again to try to gain ground in the central part of Bakhmut and may have had some success by seizing portions of the west bank of the Bakhmutka River. Rumors are that Wagner forces are being rotated out of the Bakhmut fight and ‘top line’ Russian forces replacing them. Those rumors have occurred in the past and Wagner was never pulled out.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue, but no significant breakouts by Russia. Ukraine still holding the option to stage a strategic withdrawal from Bakhmut if necessary, but that doesn’t seem imminent. Lesser withdrawal are likely as Ukraine continues to execute an economy of force – defense in depth operation that is tying up (and chewing up) Russian units.
Israel –
Fighting got hot overnight as Israel struck Hamas and related targets in Gaza and the Islamic groups retaliated with largely ineffective rocket fire, followed by more Israeli airstrikes.
IDF confirms it struck Hamas targets in Southern Lebanon and says that it holds Lebanon responsible for attacks from its soil. Air strikes on Hamas related facilities in Lebanon occurred near the Rashidieh camp in southern Lebanon near Tyre. The barrage of rockets from Lebanon was the biggest launch in 17 years.
Hezbollah affiliated media Al Mayadeen Live report that “The resistance has put it’s long-range missile units on high alert”. “If Israel attacks [Lebanon], we will bomb Haifa”
Israel’s chief of staff has ordered the “mobilization of reserves with an emphasis on the air defense and offensive formations of the Air Force”.
U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem alerts U.S. government employees to avoid all travel above Highway 85 and Highway 87 in northern Israel, approximately 18 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border.
OBSERVATION – Israel is dancing carefully with strikes in Lebanon – it is essentially controlled by Hezbollah. Lebanese military interestingly enough (see Lebanon below) appears to be very aggressive in identifying the Hamas-related terror cell launch sites. These smaller terror groups are a thorn in the side of Hezbollah as well as the Lebanese people in general, so I suspect that they are taking the opportunity to do some house cleaning. Can’t say just how high Hamas is willing to escalate things to, but Israel is taking precautions to deal with it. Reportedly additional Iron Dome units have been deployed in northern and southern areas of Israel and Tel Aviv in particular (only Hezbollah has rockets capable of hitting). However, direct conflict with Hezbollah is not in the immediate picture. That could change in a heart beat though.
Lebanon -
The Lebanese Army - Rocket launchers and rockets ready for launch were found in the south of the country, and work is underway to dismantle them. The Lebanese Army also issued a statement saying rockets targeting northern Israel were launched from the towns of Qlaileh, al-Maaliyah, and Zibqin.
OBSERVATION – Example of cooperation by the Lebanese Army who really don’t want to get into a scrum with Israel.
Syria -
Syrian opposition sources report that the “alert level” has been raised among Palestinian factions in Syria. Also claims that Iranian militias have evacuated outposts in the vicinity of Damascus Int. airport. Confirmation is still pending.
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The Saudis have invited Bashir Assad, the Iran backed Syrian leader to the next Arab League meeting on May 19th. This one is being held in Saudi Arabia. In late 2021 Syria was invited to attend the March 2022 Arab League meeting of all 22 members. President Assad has been negotiating with Arab League members since 2017 about abandoning Iran and rejoining the league.
OBSERVATION – This change is believed to be due to the ongoing renewal of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Globalism / Great Reset –
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Thursday that Americans will feel economic “pain” before an agreement is reached on raising the debt ceiling and markets will start to experience frightening turbulence as a possible default gets closer.
Dimon made the remarks in an interview with CNN on Thursday, predicting that deadlocked Democrats and Republicans will reach a deal on lifting the debt cap beyond the current $31.4 trillion within a few months—but not before Americans suffer some economic hardship.
“You’ll feel the pain before it happens,” Dimon told the outlet, referring to the moment when the Treasury Department’s arsenal of “extraordinary measures” for continuing to settle the U.S. government’s debt obligations runs out.
Various analyses, including a projection from the Congressional Budget Office, have estimated that the Treasury’s “extraordinary measures” to keep the government funded will run out sometime between July and September unless Congress lifts the cap.
As the moment of potential default approaches, Dimon suggested nervous investors will send markets on a wild ride.
OBSERVATION - Co-file under Economy. The debt ceiling fight provides an opportunity for the WEF underlings in the US to create economic chaos that could eventually result in their policies being put in place in the face of the crash of our economy. You don’t reset something that isn’t broken and debt default is a big hammer for the globalists.
The pain brought to citizens should the ceiling be crashed would be designed to move them into seeing the alternative WEF proposals as the saviors of the US and people would flock to them – Hegelian in practice.
Economy –
See JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon comments above.
Invasion of Illegals –
Illegal penetration of the northern border so far this year has exceeded the previous three years combined according to border patrol officals.
Biden / Harris watch –
VP Kamala Harris made a surprise visit to Nashville yesterday to push gun control and meet with ‘Tennessee Three’ after yesterday’s expulsions. But would not visit the families murdered by the transgender terrorist.
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The House Oversight Committee has just issued subpoenas to several banks asking for biden family associates’ financial records. The Oversight Committee subpoenaed Bank of America, Cathay Bank, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC USA N.A., and former Hunter Biden business associate Mervyn Yan.
OBSERVATION – Exposing the corruption is good, but there is a slim to no chance the DoJ will follow-up on any criminal activity.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Overall trend is developing in the current violence by the left. The Transtifa elements are primarily focusing on attacking PEOPLE (real physical threats) and not destroying property as was the case with the BLM/Antifa riots. Trans extremists believe the conspiracy they are victims of a genocide so they feel justified to attack or kill people. The Democrat Party and the Left have decided that this is the most important issue of the day for their side, with the White House going all-in and Leftist activists escalating their behavior into violence.
Transtifa also appears to be more focused on threatening state and local govts through takeovers (a correlary to physical threats against people). Embedded and likely providing assistance to Transtifa are the standard Antifa et al mob that will do anything to attack western civilization. How aggressive will Transtifa become? I will fully expect to see soon direct attacks on Churches during their Sunday services (and a warning for this coming Resurrection Sunday) to try to intimidate christians to bowing down to their ‘god’ of self. You can count on more violent protests/attacks on conservatives challenging Transtifa narrative on college and other public forums. They will not be satisfied with just trying to shout them down, but seek to physically harm them.
More examples of Transtifa terror –
KS Representative Marvin Robinson (D-KCK) was told to “go die” by a colleague and that he had “blood on his hands” for voting to override Kansas Governor Kelley’s veto of a bill banning boys from playing in girl’s sports. He explained his vote to radio host Pete Mundo, and the details are harrowing. He described his colleague as “demons” on this issue.
OBSERVATION – Demonic is the only word for the explosion of Transtifa violence and demands.
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Transgender activists that essentially held Riley Gaines hostage for some 3 hours demanded money in exchange for her safe passage off of the San Francisco State University. She is on record as to beginning legal actions against those who stayed in the hallway, assaulted her and SFSU.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS ON TRANSTIFA – This could escalate into something as violent as the 2020 riots, but with a much higher body count.
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AOC recently spouted off in an interview in regards to the recent Fed court ruling against the biden regime trying to increase accessibility of abortifacients without the prescription of a doctor.
Quote - “I believe that The Biden Administration should ignore this ruling. The courts rely on the legitimacy of their rulings and what they are currently doing is engaging in an unprecedented erosion of their legitimacy.”
OBSERVATION – ‘ol mule mouth is a reliable source of what the far left thinks and wants. This time she makes the case for the total removal of the rule of law in this country. Democrats have been gaming the system for some time now, taking adverse court rulings and stated law and working tweaks to their policies to work around them. Even engaging in a delay tactic, setting forth a policy knowing it will likely be struck down but knowing it will take several years at least before the USSC will get the case and rule on it – essentially allowing the policy to be in effect for those years. And by the time the USSC acts, it will be essentially too late.
This is the kind of stuff civil wars get started over.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Air National Guard is preparing for the largest movement of forces across the Atlantic Ocean in its history. The service will send 100 aircraft to the US to take part in the Air Defender 2023 military exercise. The upcoming exercise will take place from June 12 to 22 and are designed to demonstrate the US Air National Guard’s ability to quickly deploy and use forces across Europe in the event that war in Ukraine spreads to NATO countries.
The United States will send approximately 100 aircraft to Germany for the 10-day exercise. They include fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighters, upgraded fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft and the older F-15C Eagle along with the legendary A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft. They will be supported by Pegasus air refuelers.
Air Defender 2023 will be the first exercise in which Finland, as a NATO member, will participate. It has not yet received F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation fighters, so it will send F/A-18 Super Hornets.
OBSERVATION – these kind of exercises were very common during the Cold War era and that they are ramping up again indicates an increased focus on Russia in a European theater setting.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Juan Merchan, who presides over the case of former President Donald Trump in Manhattan, may be subject to an ethics investigation for violating New York’s Code of Judicial Conduct. Outlined in the New York Code of Judicial Conduct, sitting judges are prohibited from engaging in any political activity, including making contributions to political organizations or candidates. Judge Juan Merchan’s three donations to Democrats during the 2020 election could be a violation of this rule.
OBSERVATION – Good to see there are some with backbone ready to confront the hypocrisy of the left. This on face value should get the judge disqualified from any further participation in the Trump show trial as well as threaten his credentials.
China –
Taiwan Ministry of Defense reports that 42 PLA aircraft and 8 vessels were detected by 11:00 (UTC 8) April 8th. 29 of the detected aircraft had crossed northern, central, and southern median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered our southwest ADIZ.
OBSERVATION – This would be associate in part with China’s declared ‘exercse’ that they claim would take place in areas that surround Taiwan April 8 to 10.
This level of air intrusion is unusually high and 8 PLAN ships is about twice the average, maybe more. Even though these numbers are high, they are far too few to suggest an imminent invasion and are associated with the declared ‘exercise’.
However, if China follows through with its threat to stop and ‘inspect’ shipping headed to Taiwan – then the game really has hit a higher note as this is a serious component to an overall blockade of the island.
North/South Korea –
NK conducted another test of its drone submersible that could be equipped with a nuclear warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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RUMINT-
RUMINT. Russians are preparing for the “evacuation” of civilians in the occupied cities and villages of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions according to the General Staff of Ukraine. Russians reportedly are spreading information that the forced evacuation of the civilian population will begin from the end of April. There is a periodic departure of buses with those wishing to evacuate.
Economic Impact –
The Russian currency has been taking a beating this month, dropping to its lowest exchange levels against the Euro and Dollar in recent memory. Some indicators of minor bank runs developing.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over continuing over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Reports continue to buzz the interwebs regarding classified documents relating to the Ukraine war floating about social media. The Pentagon on Thursday confirmed top secret documents about the Ukraine war were circulating on social media - some of them had been doctored.
MY TAKE – I’ve not seen all 100 or so pages of these documents, but those I have seen are questionable and look a lot like maps and figures OSINT folks have been putting out for some time now. Equipment losses are contrary in some ways to the detailed listings of verified losses put together by Onyx et al. By and large I think this could well be a part of a larger disinformation campaign. Unheard of? Look to the planning for the Normandy invasion in WW2 – Allied forces put together a fake task force around Patton’s command and projected landing sites that the German’s thought were the true objective. When the assault hit, German reinforcements were held on the belief that Normandy was a diversion.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut continues. Ukraine grudgingly giving up terrain in the center of the town and with the continued trend, the likelihood of a much larger pull back is emerging.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect fighting in Avdiivka and Bakhmut to continue. Russia is close to shutting off a critical resupply route for Ukraine into Bakhmut and will need to make a decision soon on further pull backs or even a pull out. Russian has stripped artillery assets across eastern/southern Ukraine to support their assault. This leaves those other sectors at a significant disadvantage when Ukraine executes its offensive.
Israel –
Tensions remain high in Israel after one person was killed and 7 injured in the car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv overnight. Driver has been ‘neutralized’ according to police. There was a shooting in the Jordan Valley and along with the car attack has caused Netanyahu to order mobilization of all border police reserve companies and instructs the IDF to call up additional reservists.
Rocket attacks against Israel have not resumed.
OBSERVATION – In a way, Islamic terrorists are launching a multi front assault on Israel, by rockets from Gaza and Lebanon as well as terror attacks within Israel and West Bank areas.
Turkey -
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a call for an alliance with Iran in “pan-Islamic solidarity” against Israel. It’s being reported that Erdogan placed a call to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi where they discussed standing together against Israel in response to Israel’s strikes against Palestinian targets following recent attacks by Hamas.
OBSERVATION – Turkey’s Erdogan has cycled into a love/hate relationship with Israel but appears to be going deeper into the ‘hate’ side of the equation. Facing strong challenges to his rule in the upcoming elections, these actions are focused on trying to rally the more radical element in Turkey to his side. See below on some current polls.
Turkey has also been a wild card with Russia, in some ways snuggling up to them, while other instances striking at them.
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With about 36 days to Turkey’s elections, here is one poll I found.
• Kilicdaroglu: 42.6%
• Erdogan: 41.1%
• Ince: 5%
Second round of voting will be required if no candidate gets the 50+% mark. At this stage a second round appears to be a given.
Misc of Note –
Weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico as there is a possibility of a tropical storm system to develop over the course of next week. Though unusual, April has seen the development of tropical storms in the past. Time to check and update your hurricane preparedness plans.