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When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast—way back in July—we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber. Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before....

Five-Thirty-Eight's Nate Silver mocked New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman as a "hedgehog" who "only knows one thing." When asked to describe what a hedgehog is, Silver pointed to Friedman specifically and the op-ed columnists at the Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal: ... They don’t permit a lot of complexity in their thinking. They pull threads together from very weak evidence and draw grand conclusions based on them. They’re ironically very predictable from week to week. If you know the subject that Thomas Friedman or whatever is writing about, you don’t have to read the column. You can...

For the last few months, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver has been largely absent from the political forecasting scene he owned in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. But that hasn't stopped the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from sending at least 11 fundraising emails featuring Silver in the subject line over the past four months, even as Silver was building the foundation for his new website that's launching Monday and was not writing regularly. It's all part of a digital fundraising game that will increase in intensity as the election draws nearer, as candidates, political parties, and other groups bombard their...

That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around. There's been plenty of bullshit, in other words. We really don't know all that much about how the shutdown is going to be resolved, or how the long-term political consequences are going to play out.

Republicans might be close to winning control of the Senate after next year's elections, according to New York Times statistician Nate Silver. Writing in his "FiveThirtyEight" blog on Monday, Silver said this weekend's announcement by former Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer that he would not run for the Senate "represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber." The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey's special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver. The loss will leave Republicans...

Following former Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision not to run for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat this weekend, New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections.

According to Nate Silver, the New York Time's never-wrong politcal statistician, Scott Walker is the third most conservative governor in the country, based on his score in three categories: Congressional Voting Record, Rightwing Fundraising, and Public Issue Statements. Walker, of course, has no congressional voting record, which makes his average score of 57 slightly below the leaders that have congressional voting records. However, if just rightwing fundraising appeal and public issue statements are considered, Walker wins the title as the most conservative governor in the country. Walker isn't just conservative, he's off the charts into rightwing luny land. He beats...

Given that we now know that the Federal government used its full weight and resources to stop the voter participation in the 2012 elections we know see how an insider could make better predictions.

Ever since leading the Boston Red Sox to victory in the 2007 World Series, Josh Beckett had been a mainstay of the teamÂ’s pitching rotation. But when he hobbled off the mound with an ankle injury on September 5, 2011, the Red Sox faithful took the news in stride. After all, their team was the hottest in baseball. The previous winter, the Sox had acquired two of the sportÂ’s most sought-after players, outfielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The acquisitions led the Boston Herald to declare the team the TOP SOX SQUAD OF ALL TIME before it had...

Here’s something that slipped through the cracks thanks to the fake drama that was going on during the fake fiscal crisis coming from our fake government in Washington, DC: Another fake green company boondoggle has resulted in federal dollars being spent on …nothing. According to a report issued by the Department of Energy’s own inspector general, employees at LG Chem, a Korean company that operates a battery plant in Holland, Michigan- a plant that’s supposed to support the Chevy Volt- were paid for playing video games, board games, volunteer work at Habitat for Humanity and other local charities. Another fake-work...

The New York Times stats whiz says he'll stop blogging if his poll analysis sways future contestsNate Silver was vilified by some Republicans and political journalists during the 2012 election, and embraced by Democrats looking for a fix of reassuring political news during rocky periods of President Obama's re-election bid. This week, the seemingly prophetic New York Times–employed political polling aggregator told an audience of students at Washington University in St. Louis that "the polls can certainly affect elections at times." They're not supposed to, Silver added, but some voters may "take the forecasts too seriously." Then, says Michael Tabb...

Sure, Nate Silver was on-point during the 2012 election, but before you place your bets behind the bespectacled number genie, remember that he predicted that this would be a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl — and that he's gotten a little better at the politics game than anything else. But in a column for The New York Times Magazine published online today, Silver breaks down his latest mumbo-jumbo over S.R.S. rankings and something called the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which is exciting if you're a statistician groupie — just not if you're a Baltimore Ravens fan. In the end, Silver seems to...

Nate Silver, the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blogger and statistician who rose to prominence accurately predicting sports and elections, has run the numbers and has come to a conclusion: The Seahawks, he predicts, will play in the Super Bowl. There, they’ll take on the New England Patriots, Silver thinks. And while the Seahawks may not be the second-best team in the NFL — Silver says that’s probably the Denver Broncos — they may just be the best team in the NFC. “There’s always uncertainty with any metric,” Silver told ESPN’s “First Take.” “I do think with a Seattle team that...

Nate Silver has gotten a lot of press for his near perfect election night predictions. In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and now that Florida has been called for president Obama, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.How did Silver do it?Only Likely Voters Matter: This is one obvious reason SilverÂ’s method outshines everyone else. Anything other than likely voter models is useless information. This is key....

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6 Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0 Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1% ...

"Dedicated to the heavenly statistician God from the NY Times who for months swore Obama was going to win..with a 91% probability"

Im just getting word a team of GOP techies are launching a full site sometime tomorrow called "Nate Silver Was Wrong"..they've already launched a Facebook and Twitter..LOL..Hilarious

With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it,...

We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1. 30 percent IF its R+1? really? so you basically drop 68 points and a romney win if the only thing changes is O goes from tie turnout to plus r 1? Pew, Gallup and Rassmussen show turnout at R + 1-3 points...

President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.