Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Barack Obama 313.0 Romney 225.0 Electoral Vote
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 11/6/2012 (updated 10:10 AM ET) | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/06/2012 10:27:27 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6

Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0

Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1%

...

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Society
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; dailykos; democrats; elections; liberal; natesilver; obama; obamarecession; polling2012; polls2012; romney; romneyryan2012; teaparty
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-52 next last
Nate Silver has Romney at a 9.1% chance of winning and Obama at 90.9%.

In the Electoral College tally, Dick Morris (according to a thread here right now at FR) has it going nearly the exact opposite.

Interesting...

Who keeps up with Dick Morris' predictions? Is he usually accurate or more accurate in his forecasts than Nate Silver?

Just curious...

1 posted on 11/06/2012 10:27:32 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist; All

Romney win: slow train to socialism.

Obama win: fast train to socialism.

Tea Party: the only real stop to socialism, and/or to Romney or Obama.


2 posted on 11/06/2012 10:29:26 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Who is Nate Silver?


3 posted on 11/06/2012 10:29:54 AM PST by ILS21R (We stand at the precipice, looking into the abyss.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

” nytimes.com ...”

That’s all you need to know


4 posted on 11/06/2012 10:30:07 AM PST by lowbridge (Joe Biden: "Look, the Taliban per se is not our enemy.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

I think you’re wrong about that. Romney promotes the private sector. That’s not socialism, my friend.


5 posted on 11/06/2012 10:31:12 AM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Easier to put the brakes on the slower moving train.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 10:31:33 AM PST by dfwgator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

All of the TEA Party material in my mailbox said to vote for Romney.


7 posted on 11/06/2012 10:32:01 AM PST by ILS21R (We stand at the precipice, looking into the abyss.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Let me help you. You do not really think Obama is going to win more EC votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 when people weren’t informed on what a dud he is, do you?

Nothing is worse than Obama, he hates our military and luvs muzzies.


8 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:08 AM PST by dforest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ILS21R
Who is Nate Silver?

Someone who's at 14:59.999 on his 15-minute-of-fame clock.

9 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:12 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Michael Barone predicted a strong Romney win. He’s been very accurate in the past.


10 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:32 AM PST by MatD
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Of the 9 toss up states he has North Carolina going to Romney and Obama getting Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.


11 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:37 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Big Bird is a brood parasite: laid in our nest 43 years ago and we are still feeding him.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Silver doesn’t have a long enough history declared accurate. He was right in 49 of 50 states in 2008 ... but so were a lot of people. That could just mean he was up the Democrat’s butt in a Democrat year. He was much farther off in 2010 ... I think he shorted the Republicans by about 20% in the House.

Silver is a slave to State polls. If the polls are wrong, so is he.

Morris is kinda all over the place. He leans Republican in his predictions (there’s a reason Hannity has him on so much).

For predictions ... I trust Karl Rove, Krauthammer, Brit Hume and Michael Barone a lot more than either Silver or Morris. All of them were honest enough to predict Obama in 2008.

Rove has predicted 285 Romney. Barone 315 Romney. Krauthammer said Romney by a “narrow” margin. Hume hasn’t predicted.

SnakeDoc


12 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:51 AM PST by SnakeDoctor (Don't forget to change your clocks Saturday, and your President Tuesday.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Nate Silver is a clown


13 posted on 11/06/2012 10:35:49 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Oh, and a note to Nate — that “.0” at the end of the EV projections makes them look soooooo much more scientific.


14 posted on 11/06/2012 10:36:34 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

The first step in stopping a train is to slow it down....

That said, if a train absolutely, positively CANNOT be stopped, the next option is to derail it.

Prepare to pry the rails off the track up ahead, and stand well to the side to watch the show.

Then exclaim, in a Steve Urkel voice, “Did I do that?”


15 posted on 11/06/2012 10:36:44 AM PST by alloysteel (Bronco Bama - the cowboy who whooped up and widened the stampede.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: ILS21R

Nate Silver is a liberal statistician who used to analyze baseball numbers and play online poker. He has no background in politics other than 2008 when even a blind squirrel could have pulled the correct mix out of his a$$. He is the one guy that libs hang their hats on and proclaim that he is the most brilliant of brilliant and has all of the answers - following one election cycle. He got 2010 completely wrong - FWIW.


16 posted on 11/06/2012 10:39:15 AM PST by RobertClark (Inside every "older" person is a younger person wondering what the hell happened?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: ILS21R
Who is Nate Silver?

A double-down DU hero and clown who is about to have an epic crash in burn in a few hours.

17 posted on 11/06/2012 10:39:58 AM PST by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: MatD
Michael Barone predicted a strong Romney win. He’s been very accurate in the past.

As has George Will. He has a similar (310+) EV prediction for Romney.

18 posted on 11/06/2012 10:40:33 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Could this be why Intrade is currently showing 69.4% Obama, 30.7% Romney?


19 posted on 11/06/2012 10:41:49 AM PST by lquist1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

What’s with decimal EVs?

Even NH separates them as integers.


20 posted on 11/06/2012 10:45:07 AM PST by cicero2k
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SnakeDoctor

Silver was also fed Obama insider polling info in 2008, and IMO is in the propaganda business for his propagandizing employer in 2012.


21 posted on 11/06/2012 10:45:43 AM PST by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: All

Thanks. I really didn’t know who Nate Silver was. I should have googled him, but he didn’t even show up on my political radar. So I didn’t bother. Thanks again.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 10:47:30 AM PST by ILS21R (We stand at the precipice, looking into the abyss.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

One very nice benefit that will occur should America do the right thing today is that Nate Silver will be put in the place he ought to be put: in the trash bin of reality.

He was supposedly fed internal polls in 2008...which made his “analysis” not so much due to his brains, but his access to information.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 10:47:58 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist
What's next for poindexter, he predicts Bonzo with a 105% chance to win?

There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.

They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).

They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.

They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.

24 posted on 11/06/2012 10:50:19 AM PST by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist
What's next for poindexter, he predicts Bonzo with a 105% chance to win?

There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.

They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).

They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.

They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.

25 posted on 11/06/2012 10:50:37 AM PST by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

I’ve been seeing a lot of 300s for hussein.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 10:51:40 AM PST by bgill (Evil doers are in every corner of our government. Have we passed the point of no return?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist
Romney win: slow train to socialism.
Obama win: fast train to socialism.

Since you're using the train and slow/fast analogy, all I say is that it ain't the speed, it's the acceleration.

Is the Romney train just a slower train going at a constant speed or a train that is slowing down so that it will eventually come to a stop?

Both situations sees the train heading in the wrong direction slowly, but with vastly different ending scenarios.

27 posted on 11/06/2012 10:53:50 AM PST by PallMal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
I think you’re wrong about that. Romney promotes the private sector. That’s not socialism, my friend

When you are on a train and walking towards the rear, you are still moving forward towards the destination.

28 posted on 11/06/2012 10:54:55 AM PST by Michael.SF. (Obama Lied, Stevens died.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: 9YearLurker
Silver was also fed Obama insider polling info in 2008, and IMO is in the propaganda business for his propagandizing employer in 2012.

That is correct. He had signed confidentiality agreements in place with the Obama campaign in 2008 and was fed their internal polling data.

29 posted on 11/06/2012 11:02:51 AM PST by RobertClark (Inside every "older" person is a younger person wondering what the hell happened?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: RobertClark

So... in other words... “the model” — he didn’t build that, the Obama campaign did?


30 posted on 11/06/2012 11:05:52 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: ILS21R

“Who is Nate Silver?”

I know most Freepers would rather stick their heads inside Moo-chelle’s big ass before reading DU forums, but FYI, Nate Silver is the DU’s version of Dick Morris here. The brain-dead members there quote him a lot.


31 posted on 11/06/2012 11:10:40 AM PST by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Romney win: slow train to socialism.

Obama win: fast train to socialism.

It only makes sense to drink radioactive chemicals when you already have cancer


32 posted on 11/06/2012 11:16:00 AM PST by will of the people
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Does Nate Silver have money riding on the election? Wonder if he is putting these negative Romney odds out there, but actually is secretly betting on Romney. He’d make a fortune with such long odds.


33 posted on 11/06/2012 11:17:19 AM PST by Cindy of Nashville (What has the Democrat party become???)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

If you don’t like the projections of poll aggregators like Sam Wang or Nate Silver, blame the polls, not the aggregators.

In Wang’s case, for example, he has *completely* documented his inputs and methods - and his results mirror the polls, that’s for example why Romney’s chances improved dramatically after the first debate and them declined again afterwards.

Nate Silver’s methods area bit less transparent as he is also including factors such as general economic performance.

All the mainstream aggregators acknowledge that it’s *possible* that there is systematic bias in the state level programming, for example Nate Silver states that it’s exactly this possibility that creates the remaining probability of a Romney EC victory.

___________

The Pundoids across the political spectrum hate the aggregators, because the former are in the business of selling their subjective opinions, and if the aggregators continue to be as accurate as they have been in the last few electrons (which is much more accurate that the average pundit), the pundits will be out of a job (or at least potentially less well paid to do it).


34 posted on 11/06/2012 11:17:36 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: M. Dodge Thomas
If you don’t like the projections of poll aggregators like Sam Wang or Nate Silver, blame the polls, not the aggregators.

Not going to agree with you there. Aggregation does nothing to make polling results more accurate, all it does is allow the "aggregator" to stake out a middle-of-the-road claim that will of course place them closer to the end result than roughly half of the individual pollsters, whom the aggregator will use highlight his "success" (along with a wide enough MOE to account for reality to be different than anyone's guesses).

It is quite true that it's GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) as well -- and the input polls are garbage, even more so than usual.

35 posted on 11/06/2012 11:23:18 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: M. Dodge Thomas

San Wang’s final prediction:

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/

And... before you shoot the piano player... remember that the aggregators are the *messengers*, the state-level polling writes the message.


36 posted on 11/06/2012 11:25:56 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

BARF ALERT


37 posted on 11/06/2012 11:34:18 AM PST by diamond6 (Hulu has "The Hope and the Change" for free: http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/409925)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom
"Aggregation does nothing to make polling results more accurate."

Aggregation (meta-analysis) substantially improves the "accuracy" (for example, margin-of-error & confidence level) of the analysis of the *combined* data-sets.

38 posted on 11/06/2012 11:36:52 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist
Tea Party: the only real stop to socialism, and/or to Romney or Obama.

That's right, and if there aren't just as many, or more TEA Party rallies if Romney is elected, then it all has been for naught.

39 posted on 11/06/2012 12:08:27 PM PST by Turbo Pig (...to close with and destroy the enemy...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Laissez-faire capitalist

I agree but you may get flamed for stating it. The Tea Party is seen as an equal enemy as the Democrats to the GOP.


40 posted on 11/06/2012 1:00:27 PM PST by Sam Gamgee (May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't. - Patton)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: bgill
I’ve been seeing a lot of 300s for hussein.

Did yo listen to Rush yesterday. The SRM had several report how to get 0 bummer to 271, but not a single poll that he was over 50% and no incumbent has been reelected with less than 50%.

41 posted on 11/06/2012 1:20:23 PM PST by Arrowhead1952 ("It's better to vote for a Republican you don't know than wind up with a dim you don't like".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: dfwgator

“Easier to put the brakes on the slower moving train.”

Or rip up the tracks ahead of it!


42 posted on 11/06/2012 2:00:14 PM PST by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom

The clock has now went past 15 minutes...


43 posted on 11/07/2012 6:46:43 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: MatD

He wasn’t accurate this time.

And neither was Dick Morris.


44 posted on 11/07/2012 6:47:47 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: cicero2k

Even NH doesn’t waste time thinking about stuff you posted, though.


45 posted on 11/07/2012 6:49:43 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Doh.


46 posted on 11/07/2012 6:50:34 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: PermaRag

Uh oh.

Poindexter didn’t do so bad...


47 posted on 11/07/2012 6:51:25 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: diamond6

Thanks for alerting us of post #37.


48 posted on 11/07/2012 6:53:30 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Sam Gamgee; All

The GOP-e does not like the Tea Party.

The GOP-e wanted them to be but the booster rocket to get Obama defeated, replaced with a RINO (Romney), then discarded when Romney reached across the aisle to enact center-left legislation with the Republicans and Dems in the House and Senate who were moderates and liberals.


49 posted on 11/07/2012 6:56:50 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom; Laissez-faire capitalist; diamond6

At the end of the day, Silver and Wong’s predictions were *extremely* accurate:

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/07/after-the-storm/

We may not have liked the results of their techniques this time around.

But after producing these sorts of results three elections in a row with impressive and increasing accuracy and precision, we ignore them at out peril in terms (for example) of judging the ongoing effectiveness of campaign strategies.


50 posted on 11/07/2012 2:06:30 PM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-52 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson