Posted on 11/06/2012 10:27:27 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6
Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0
Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1%
...
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
In the Electoral College tally, Dick Morris (according to a thread here right now at FR) has it going nearly the exact opposite.
Interesting...
Who keeps up with Dick Morris' predictions? Is he usually accurate or more accurate in his forecasts than Nate Silver?
Just curious...
Romney win: slow train to socialism.
Obama win: fast train to socialism.
Tea Party: the only real stop to socialism, and/or to Romney or Obama.
Who is Nate Silver?
” nytimes.com ...”
That’s all you need to know
I think you’re wrong about that. Romney promotes the private sector. That’s not socialism, my friend.
Easier to put the brakes on the slower moving train.
All of the TEA Party material in my mailbox said to vote for Romney.
Let me help you. You do not really think Obama is going to win more EC votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 when people weren’t informed on what a dud he is, do you?
Nothing is worse than Obama, he hates our military and luvs muzzies.
Someone who's at 14:59.999 on his 15-minute-of-fame clock.
Michael Barone predicted a strong Romney win. He’s been very accurate in the past.
Of the 9 toss up states he has North Carolina going to Romney and Obama getting Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.
Silver doesn’t have a long enough history declared accurate. He was right in 49 of 50 states in 2008 ... but so were a lot of people. That could just mean he was up the Democrat’s butt in a Democrat year. He was much farther off in 2010 ... I think he shorted the Republicans by about 20% in the House.
Silver is a slave to State polls. If the polls are wrong, so is he.
Morris is kinda all over the place. He leans Republican in his predictions (there’s a reason Hannity has him on so much).
For predictions ... I trust Karl Rove, Krauthammer, Brit Hume and Michael Barone a lot more than either Silver or Morris. All of them were honest enough to predict Obama in 2008.
Rove has predicted 285 Romney. Barone 315 Romney. Krauthammer said Romney by a “narrow” margin. Hume hasn’t predicted.
SnakeDoc
Nate Silver is a clown
Oh, and a note to Nate — that “.0” at the end of the EV projections makes them look soooooo much more scientific.
The first step in stopping a train is to slow it down....
That said, if a train absolutely, positively CANNOT be stopped, the next option is to derail it.
Prepare to pry the rails off the track up ahead, and stand well to the side to watch the show.
Then exclaim, in a Steve Urkel voice, “Did I do that?”
Nate Silver is a liberal statistician who used to analyze baseball numbers and play online poker. He has no background in politics other than 2008 when even a blind squirrel could have pulled the correct mix out of his a$$. He is the one guy that libs hang their hats on and proclaim that he is the most brilliant of brilliant and has all of the answers - following one election cycle. He got 2010 completely wrong - FWIW.
A double-down DU hero and clown who is about to have an epic crash in burn in a few hours.
As has George Will. He has a similar (310+) EV prediction for Romney.
Could this be why Intrade is currently showing 69.4% Obama, 30.7% Romney?
What’s with decimal EVs?
Even NH separates them as integers.
Silver was also fed Obama insider polling info in 2008, and IMO is in the propaganda business for his propagandizing employer in 2012.
Thanks. I really didn’t know who Nate Silver was. I should have googled him, but he didn’t even show up on my political radar. So I didn’t bother. Thanks again.
One very nice benefit that will occur should America do the right thing today is that Nate Silver will be put in the place he ought to be put: in the trash bin of reality.
He was supposedly fed internal polls in 2008...which made his “analysis” not so much due to his brains, but his access to information.
There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.
They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).
They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.
They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.
There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.
They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).
They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.
They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.
I’ve been seeing a lot of 300s for hussein.
Since you're using the train and slow/fast analogy, all I say is that it ain't the speed, it's the acceleration.
Is the Romney train just a slower train going at a constant speed or a train that is slowing down so that it will eventually come to a stop?
Both situations sees the train heading in the wrong direction slowly, but with vastly different ending scenarios.
When you are on a train and walking towards the rear, you are still moving forward towards the destination.
That is correct. He had signed confidentiality agreements in place with the Obama campaign in 2008 and was fed their internal polling data.
So... in other words... “the model” — he didn’t build that, the Obama campaign did?
“Who is Nate Silver?”
I know most Freepers would rather stick their heads inside Moo-chelle’s big ass before reading DU forums, but FYI, Nate Silver is the DU’s version of Dick Morris here. The brain-dead members there quote him a lot.
Romney win: slow train to socialism.
Obama win: fast train to socialism.
It only makes sense to drink radioactive chemicals when you already have cancer
Does Nate Silver have money riding on the election? Wonder if he is putting these negative Romney odds out there, but actually is secretly betting on Romney. He’d make a fortune with such long odds.
If you don’t like the projections of poll aggregators like Sam Wang or Nate Silver, blame the polls, not the aggregators.
In Wang’s case, for example, he has *completely* documented his inputs and methods - and his results mirror the polls, that’s for example why Romney’s chances improved dramatically after the first debate and them declined again afterwards.
Nate Silver’s methods area bit less transparent as he is also including factors such as general economic performance.
All the mainstream aggregators acknowledge that it’s *possible* that there is systematic bias in the state level programming, for example Nate Silver states that it’s exactly this possibility that creates the remaining probability of a Romney EC victory.
___________
The Pundoids across the political spectrum hate the aggregators, because the former are in the business of selling their subjective opinions, and if the aggregators continue to be as accurate as they have been in the last few electrons (which is much more accurate that the average pundit), the pundits will be out of a job (or at least potentially less well paid to do it).
Not going to agree with you there. Aggregation does nothing to make polling results more accurate, all it does is allow the "aggregator" to stake out a middle-of-the-road claim that will of course place them closer to the end result than roughly half of the individual pollsters, whom the aggregator will use highlight his "success" (along with a wide enough MOE to account for reality to be different than anyone's guesses).
It is quite true that it's GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) as well -- and the input polls are garbage, even more so than usual.
San Wang’s final prediction:
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/
And... before you shoot the piano player... remember that the aggregators are the *messengers*, the state-level polling writes the message.
BARF ALERT
Aggregation (meta-analysis) substantially improves the "accuracy" (for example, margin-of-error & confidence level) of the analysis of the *combined* data-sets.
That's right, and if there aren't just as many, or more TEA Party rallies if Romney is elected, then it all has been for naught.
I agree but you may get flamed for stating it. The Tea Party is seen as an equal enemy as the Democrats to the GOP.
Did yo listen to Rush yesterday. The SRM had several report how to get 0 bummer to 271, but not a single poll that he was over 50% and no incumbent has been reelected with less than 50%.
“Easier to put the brakes on the slower moving train.”
Or rip up the tracks ahead of it!
The clock has now went past 15 minutes...
He wasn’t accurate this time.
And neither was Dick Morris.
Even NH doesn’t waste time thinking about stuff you posted, though.
Doh.
Uh oh.
Poindexter didn’t do so bad...
Thanks for alerting us of post #37.
The GOP-e does not like the Tea Party.
The GOP-e wanted them to be but the booster rocket to get Obama defeated, replaced with a RINO (Romney), then discarded when Romney reached across the aisle to enact center-left legislation with the Republicans and Dems in the House and Senate who were moderates and liberals.
At the end of the day, Silver and Wong’s predictions were *extremely* accurate:
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/07/after-the-storm/
We may not have liked the results of their techniques this time around.
But after producing these sorts of results three elections in a row with impressive and increasing accuracy and precision, we ignore them at out peril in terms (for example) of judging the ongoing effectiveness of campaign strategies.
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