Posted on 11/06/2012 10:27:27 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6
Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0
Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1%
...
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
In the Electoral College tally, Dick Morris (according to a thread here right now at FR) has it going nearly the exact opposite.
Interesting...
Who keeps up with Dick Morris' predictions? Is he usually accurate or more accurate in his forecasts than Nate Silver?
Just curious...
Romney win: slow train to socialism.
Obama win: fast train to socialism.
Tea Party: the only real stop to socialism, and/or to Romney or Obama.
Who is Nate Silver?
” nytimes.com ...”
That’s all you need to know
I think you’re wrong about that. Romney promotes the private sector. That’s not socialism, my friend.
Easier to put the brakes on the slower moving train.
All of the TEA Party material in my mailbox said to vote for Romney.
Let me help you. You do not really think Obama is going to win more EC votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 when people weren’t informed on what a dud he is, do you?
Nothing is worse than Obama, he hates our military and luvs muzzies.
Someone who's at 14:59.999 on his 15-minute-of-fame clock.
Michael Barone predicted a strong Romney win. He’s been very accurate in the past.
Of the 9 toss up states he has North Carolina going to Romney and Obama getting Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.
Silver doesn’t have a long enough history declared accurate. He was right in 49 of 50 states in 2008 ... but so were a lot of people. That could just mean he was up the Democrat’s butt in a Democrat year. He was much farther off in 2010 ... I think he shorted the Republicans by about 20% in the House.
Silver is a slave to State polls. If the polls are wrong, so is he.
Morris is kinda all over the place. He leans Republican in his predictions (there’s a reason Hannity has him on so much).
For predictions ... I trust Karl Rove, Krauthammer, Brit Hume and Michael Barone a lot more than either Silver or Morris. All of them were honest enough to predict Obama in 2008.
Rove has predicted 285 Romney. Barone 315 Romney. Krauthammer said Romney by a “narrow” margin. Hume hasn’t predicted.
SnakeDoc
Nate Silver is a clown
Oh, and a note to Nate — that “.0” at the end of the EV projections makes them look soooooo much more scientific.
The first step in stopping a train is to slow it down....
That said, if a train absolutely, positively CANNOT be stopped, the next option is to derail it.
Prepare to pry the rails off the track up ahead, and stand well to the side to watch the show.
Then exclaim, in a Steve Urkel voice, “Did I do that?”
Nate Silver is a liberal statistician who used to analyze baseball numbers and play online poker. He has no background in politics other than 2008 when even a blind squirrel could have pulled the correct mix out of his a$$. He is the one guy that libs hang their hats on and proclaim that he is the most brilliant of brilliant and has all of the answers - following one election cycle. He got 2010 completely wrong - FWIW.
A double-down DU hero and clown who is about to have an epic crash in burn in a few hours.
As has George Will. He has a similar (310+) EV prediction for Romney.
Could this be why Intrade is currently showing 69.4% Obama, 30.7% Romney?
What’s with decimal EVs?
Even NH separates them as integers.
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