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Keyword: 2012polls

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  • Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012 (Obama won?)

    06/05/2013 11:45:14 AM PDT · by Seizethecarp · 33 replies
    Washington Post ^ | June 4, 2013 | Scott Clement
    The Gallup Poll’s misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organization’s top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections. The four factors he listed: 1. Likely voter model shifted too far toward Romney While most likely voter models improved Romney’s 2012 standing, Gallup’s resulted in a larger-than-average four-point shift. In particular, the finding mirrors problems in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, when Gallup’s likely voter model produced larger errors than...
  • 'Catholic guilt' is a myth - but puritanism is alive and well, says study

    02/27/2013 11:21:21 AM PST · by Alex Murphy · 5 replies
    The Telegraph UK ^ | 27 Feb 2013 | John Bingham
    The findings emerge from research into the notion of guilt by academics at the Religion and Society Programme, an academic unit based at Lancaster University which organises the regular Westminster Faith Debates. The research included a YouGov poll of more than 4,000 people of various religious persuasions, including atheists, who were asked whether they would feel guilty if they used contraception, had an affair or sex before marriage and other issues. Only 12 per cent of practising Catholics and nine per cent of nominal Catholics polled said they would feel any guilt about using contraception, despite the Church’s strong stance...
  • Did Nate Silver Tip the 2012 Election to Obama? (Will Quit if He's Too Powerful)

    02/15/2013 9:37:20 PM PST · by nickcarraway · 15 replies
    The Week ^ | 2/15/2013 | Peter Weber
    The New York Times stats whiz says he'll stop blogging if his poll analysis sways future contestsNate Silver was vilified by some Republicans and political journalists during the 2012 election, and embraced by Democrats looking for a fix of reassuring political news during rocky periods of President Obama's re-election bid. This week, the seemingly prophetic New York Times–employed political polling aggregator told an audience of students at Washington University in St. Louis that "the polls can certainly affect elections at times." They're not supposed to, Silver added, but some voters may "take the forecasts too seriously." Then, says Michael Tabb...
  • GALLUP: AMERICANS WANT MENTAL HEALTH LAWS, POLICE, NOT BANNING GUN

    12/21/2012 8:11:55 AM PST · by rellimpank · 12 replies
    Breeitbart-Big Gov't ^ | 21 dec 2012 | WILLIAM BIGELOW
    Despite the attempts by the Left to use the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut to forward their anti-gun agenda, Americans feel that there are other avenues they would rather explore to protect to innocent children, according to a new Gallup Poll. In order of preference, the poll shows that 53% of Americans would favor an increased police presence at schools, 50% wanted to increase government spending on mental health screening and treatment, 47% thought that gun violence on TV, in movies and in video games should be decreased, and 42% thought the sale of assault and semi-automatic guns should be banned....
  • Gallup: Quality Jobs Harder to Come By, More Americans Say

    12/20/2012 8:40:08 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 21 replies
    Cybercast News Service ^ | December 20, 2012 | Melanie Hunter
    Fewer Americans believe now is a good time to find a quality job, compared to last month, a new Gallup poll found. The number of Americans saying the time is right to find a quality job fell sharply in December to 19 percent—down from 24 percent in November. Three in four Americans, or 76 percent, say this is a bad time to find a quality job. … The availability of quality jobs is considered a key to economic growth. …
  • Are Young Black Men Rejecting Obama? One Stat Suggests So.

    12/20/2012 7:39:23 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Pajamas Media ^ | 12/20/2012 | Walter Hudson
    The number of young black men who cast a vote for the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 tripled that of 2008. Hearing this statistic, one commenter quipped, “Is this one of those situations where three times nothing is still nothing?” No. “Nearly 20 percent of black males under 30 voted for Romney, more than three times what McCain got.” That according to Ann Coulter, who gets her information from Pew Research.How? Why? Is there a growing number of young black conservatives?Those stand as worthy questions. Answering them properly would require follow-up polling. Any number of factors could have informed...
  • Gallup: 52% Say Boy Scouts Should Not Allow Homosexual Scout Leaders

    12/18/2012 6:10:21 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 24 replies
    Cybercast News Service ^ | December 18, 2012 | Pete Winn
    A majority of Americans say the Boy Scouts should not allow open homosexuals to be Scout leaders, according to a new Gallup Poll. The survey, conducted Nov. 28-29 for USA Today, found that only 42 percent of Americans support openly gay Scout leaders, while a majority 52 percent are opposed. … The Boy Scouts are currently under pressure from supporters of a lesbian former den mother from Ohio, Jennifer Tyrrell, who was removed from her leadership post earlier this year, when her sexual orientation was made public. Tyrrell has petitioned for reinstatement. …
  • Poll: US Support for Palestinian Authority Near All-Time Low

    12/16/2012 10:16:37 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 7 replies
    INN ^ | 12/16/2012, 11:50 AM | Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
    Only 10 percent of Americans sympathize with the Palestinian Authority, according to a new Pew Center poll, which shows that the United States public is also going isolationist.In answer to the question, “In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, which side do you sympathize with more, Israel or the Palestinians?”, 50 percent identified with Israeli and only 10 percent with the Arabs. … The overwhelming support for Israel in the poll was more prominent among Republicans and evangelical Christians. …
  • Many single women, a key bloc, are avoiding GOP

    12/15/2012 7:37:19 AM PST · by ConservativeStatement · 215 replies
    AP ^ | December 15, 2012 | NICHOLAS RICCARDI
    DENVER (AP) — Sara Stevenson spends her working hours surrounded by Republicans, namely the married men who work alongside her in a Denver oil and gas firm company. But after hours and on weekends, she usually spends her time with other single women, and there's not a Republican in sight among the bunch. "There was just no way I could have supported any Republican this year," said Stevenson, 31. "They skew so much to the religious right. ... They focused so much on taxes. It's not something that women in my demographic really care about. I've never heard my friends...
  • Many Single Women, A Key Bloc, Are Avoiding GOP [Unmarried Women Voted 67% Obama to 31% Romney!]

    12/15/2012 2:28:43 PM PST · by Steelfish · 70 replies
    Yahoo News ^ | December 15, 2012
    Many Single Women, A Key Bloc, Are Avoiding GOP By By NICHOLAS RICCARDI DENVER (AP) — Sara Stevenson spends her working hours surrounded by Republicans, namely the married men who work alongside her in a Denver oil and gas firm company. But after hours and on weekends, she usually spends her time with other single women, and there's not a Republican in sight among the bunch. "There was just no way I could have supported any Republican this year," said Stevenson, 31. "They skew so much to the religious right. ... They focused so much on taxes. It's not something...
  • Poll: Majority would blame both sides equally if talks fail

    12/13/2012 8:52:17 AM PST · by Qbert · 34 replies
    The Hill ^ | 12/13/12 | Meghashyam Mali
    A new poll finds that a majority of voters would blame both President Obama and congressional Republicans equally if efforts to find a deficit deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” fail. Fifty-six percent surveyed in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll say both sides would be responsible if a compromise is not reached. Nineteen percent would blame Obama and Democrats only, with 24 percent saying the GOP would be at fault. Those numbers could suggest a shift in public opinion as both parties work to find a way to prevent tax rate hikes and automatic spending cuts from taking...
  • Left-Wing Ideology Now Rules Supreme In America

    12/13/2012 8:32:15 AM PST · by Kaslin · 83 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | December 13, 2012 | Douglas MacKinnon
    News flash for conservatives, Christians, libertarians or anyone in America who embraces traditional values, the rule of law, common sense, basic math, a more secure nation or politicians who put you and your family first: You have lost or are losing across the board. Period. With the re-election of Barack Obama — and he and his campaign should be congratulated for not only running a winning campaign but, more importantly, for also exploiting the weaknesses created by the nanny-state — there is now no more mystery or doubt. Liberal ideology rules supreme in our country and to say otherwise, is...
  • Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 46%, Republicans 36% [Wake Up, GOP!]

    12/11/2012 11:55:52 AM PST · by SoFloFreeper · 50 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | 12/10/12 | Scott Rasmussen
    Democrats hold a 10-point lead over Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending December 9, 2012. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 36% would choose the Republican instead. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from December 3-9, 2012.
  • Poll: Republicans Lack Popular National Leader

    12/10/2012 10:38:39 AM PST · by Olog-hai · 25 replies
    Newsmax ^ | Monday, 10 Dec 2012 09:52 AM | (Newsmax Wires)
    The Republican Party doesn’t have a leader who is looked upon favorably by a majority of Americans, according to a Politico/George Washington University poll. Defeated presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, each garnered only 47 percent approval, according to the poll. …
  • Battleground Poll: Hike taxes on rich (so say 60% of respondents)

    12/10/2012 8:24:05 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 50 replies
    Politico ^ | 12/10/2012 | James Hohmann
    An American appetite for tax hikes gives President Barack Obama leverage in fiscal cliff negotiations.A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds that 60 percent of respondents support raising taxes on households that earn more than $250,000 a year and 64 percent want to raise taxes on large corporations.
  • All Of The Fiscal Cliff Polls Have Been Pretty Brutal For Republicans

    12/07/2012 1:29:33 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 89 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 12/07/2012 | Brett LoGiurato
    As negotiations on a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" enter the final three weeks, Republicans face a stark reality: The American public continues siding with President Barack Obama and Democrats on issues crucial to any potential deal. Polls taken over the past month have continually shown that a post-election bump for the President, combined with the relative unpopularity of Republicans, gives Obama a lot of leverage in the debate. Voters overwhelmingly support the key element of Obama's plan for a deal — raising taxes on incomes above $250,000. They also support blanket entitlement cuts, which is what the GOP...
  • POLL: Americans Favor Legalization of Marijuana 51-44%

    12/05/2012 6:45:57 AM PST · by CNSNews.com · 59 replies
    CNSNews.com ^ | December 5, 2012 | Gregory Gwyn-Williams Jr.
    Americans favor the legalization of marijuana 51 to 44 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday morning. The poll showed a substantial gender and age gap on the issue: -- Men favored legalization 59 to 36 percent, but women opposed it, 52 to 44 percent. -- Americans 18 to 29 years old support legalization 67 to 29 percent, while those over 65 years oppose it, 56 to 35 percent. -- Respondents between 30 and 44 years old also support the idea of legalization, 58 to 39 percent, while Americans between 45 and 64 are more closely divided,...
  • Illinois poll of Hispanics finds agreement with GOP on guns, gays, abortion

    12/04/2012 9:14:05 AM PST · by bigbob · 36 replies
    The Daily Caller ^ | 12-4-12 | Alexis Levinson
    As Republicans ponder how to win over Hispanics in future election cycles, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. A poll of Illinois Hispanics conducted by pollster Mike McKeon found that a majority shared views generally considered to be sympathetic to the Republican party. The poll found Hispanics in the conservative camp on social issues in particular. Fifty-one percent said they opposed legalizing gay marriage, compared to just 40 percent who favored legalization. Fifty-six percent called themselves pro-life, while just 33 percent said they were pro-choice. A small plurality of those surveyed said they did not...
  • Romney internal polls mystery deepens after New Republic report

    12/01/2012 6:40:57 AM PST · by dirtboy · 110 replies
    Philly.com (Inquirer and Daily News) ^ | 11/30/2012 | Scott Bomboy
    It may take election experts years to unravel the mystery of why Mitt Romney was convinced he had won the 2012 presidential election, as a new report shows some skewed internal poll numbers, and explains Romney’s two trips to Pennsylvania. But at the same time, the article from The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber shows inconsistencies with reports from November 5 and November 6 about the numbers that might have convinced Romney and his team that he had a good chance of beating President Obama in Ohio. Obama’s resounding win is starting to take on more of a resemblance to Harry...
  • Exit Polls Prove US Still a Red State Nation

    11/27/2012 5:29:17 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 33 replies
    NewsMax ^ | 11/26/2012 | Christopher Ruddy
    The dust may still be settling on the 2012 election, but there is good reason for conservatives to find optimism for the future. Recently, I found such hope reviewing the full exit poll data from our recent election. The bottom line on the presidential race was this: Mitt Romney lost the election because voters liked him less than Barack Obama. Despite claims otherwise, the election was not a referendum on Obama’s record or even red state values versus blue state values. Obama and the Democrats have claimed a “mandate,” but the data shows voters actually oppose President Obama’s programs like...
  • Out-Hustled? Michael Barone on Why So Many Failed to Predict the Reelection of Obama (VIDEO)

    11/26/2012 9:23:44 AM PST · by GVnana · 27 replies
    Many pollsters predicted a Romney win, but were proven wrong on Election Day 2012. Did pollsters fail to account for cellphone users, or did Romney fail at turning out the GOP vote? Did voter fraud play a role? Find out as Michael Barone analyzes the results of the 2012 election with Glenn Reynolds.
  • Why aren’t Asians Republicans?

    11/26/2012 9:51:06 AM PST · by LucianOfSamasota · 105 replies
    AEI Ideas ^ | November 26, 2012 | Charles Murray
    Last week, I pointed out that there is no such thing as a natural social-conservative skew among Latino Americans. But that leaves open a rejoinder, expressed by several readers: The GOP doesn’t need to get all of the Latino vote, just its fair share. That’s true, and I should have made my point clearer. In the wake of the election, some social conservatives have tried a new version of the old Silent Majority argument, contending that Republicans can continue to make their candidates pass litmus tests on abortion and gay marriage and still win national elections if only it taps...
  • CNN poll: More Americans would blame Republicans if country went off fiscal cliff

    11/26/2012 8:13:29 AM PST · by Qbert · 92 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | November 26, 2012 | Charlie Spiering
    A new CNN poll shows that more Americans would blame Republicans if the country went off the fiscal cliff rather than President Obama. 45 percent of those polled by CNN said they would blame Republicans more; 34 percent said they would blame Obama. But Republicans might have a political opportunity if they can convince Americans that President Obama is not working to cooperate with Republicans. According to CNN, nearly half say Obama is not doing enough to cooperate with the Republicans, although seven in ten want him to compromise with the GOP.
  • Rasmussen: 54% now call themselves pro-choice, 38% pro-life

    11/16/2012 1:14:40 PM PST · by JerseyanExile · 32 replies
    Hot Air ^ | November 15, 2012 | Allahpundit
    Wait a sec, you say. Didn’t Gallup find just six months ago that the number who describe themselves as “pro-choice” was at a record low? Indeed they did.But as the saying goes, my friends: Elections have consequences.More voters than ever now identify themselves as pro-choice when it comes to abortion, and most rate the issue as important to how they vote.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 54% describe themselves as pro-choice on the issue of abortion, while 38% say they are pro-life.Let’s look at trends on abortion in a few recent polls. This...
  • Census: U.S. Poverty Rate Spikes, Nearly 50 Million Americans Affected

    11/15/2012 11:27:26 AM PST · by george76 · 52 replies
    CBS DC ^ | November 15, 2012
    Barack Obama is set to begin his second term, new statistics on America’s poverty rate indicate that nearly 50 million Americans, more than 16 percent of the population, are struggling to survive. New figures released by the Census Bureau this week found a spike in poverty numbers last year, going from 49 million in 2010 to 49.7 million last year. The numbers may come as a surprise to Congress, which estimated in September that the poverty rate would drop to 46.2 million.
  • Freep This Poll (Maine to Legalize Marijuana)

    11/15/2012 8:18:39 AM PST · by YourAdHere · 68 replies
    Do you believe Maine should legalize, tax and regulate marijuana?
  • The Best or Worst Pollsters in the 2012 Election – How did Nate Silver Do It? (Gallup is Dead Last)

    11/14/2012 8:36:10 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Patheos ^ | 11/13/2012 | Tim Suttle
    Nate Silver has gotten a lot of press for his near perfect election night predictions. In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and now that Florida has been called for president Obama, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.How did Silver do it?Only Likely Voters Matter: This is one obvious reason SilverÂ’s method outshines everyone else. Anything other than likely voter models is useless information. This is key....
  • Poll: Fewer Americans Now Support Obamacare Repeal

    11/14/2012 7:30:33 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 52 replies
    ABC News ^ | 11/13/2012 | Z. Byron Wolf
    A record low number of American voters want to see the Affordable Care Act – Obamacare – repealed, according to a new post-election poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation. Obamacare was not the top issue driving American to vote, although nearly seven in 10 Americans cited it as a “major factor” in their decision choosing between the candidates, according to Kaiser. Voters who listed Obamacare as a major factor were evenly split between Republican Mitt Romney, 47 percent, and President Obama, 46 percent. But only 33 percent of Americans now want to see the law repealed. Romney had pledged...
  • IBD/TIPP Poll: U.S. Consumer Confidence Nosedives

    11/13/2012 11:55:56 AM PST · by Arthurio · 18 replies
    TIPP Online ^ | 11-13-12
    The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined by 5.4 points, or 10%, in November, posting 48.6 vs. 54 in October. The index is 0.4 points above its 12-month average of 48.2, 4.2 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the recession, and 1.3 points below its all-time average of 49.9. Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate pessimism. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the national...
  • Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: 0bama Job Approval @ 55%

    11/13/2012 10:15:53 AM PST · by Arthurio · 38 replies
    Tuesday, November 13, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 55% of Likely Voters at least somewhat approve of President Obama's job performance. Forty-four percent (44%) at least somewhat disapprove. The president’s overall approval rating is up seven points from a year ago and is his highest since late June 2009 (see trends). Ninety-four percent (94%) of Democrats approve, while 82% of Republicans disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 46% approve and 51% disapprove.
  • Conservatives, We are not outnumbered.

    11/11/2012 5:06:58 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 37 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 11/12/2012 | Brian T. Carter
    There are at least three options in how conservatives respond to the election results: First, conservatives can take the Tucker Carlson, David Frum, and Bill Kristol approach by nominating even more moderate Republicans and shamelessly pandering to disparate constituent groups, hoping to cobble together a larger coalition than liberals. ...and toward what end? Abandoning core principles can only undermine conservatives' credibility, and liberals will just choose to demonize right-leaning candidates on other issues. Even if the cave and pander strategy is successful, then what is the difference between the parties? What is achieved? A variation on this approach is to...
  • FiveThirtyEight Forecast Barack Obama 313.0 Romney 225.0 Electoral Vote

    11/06/2012 10:27:27 AM PST · by Laissez-faire capitalist · 51 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 11/6/2012 (updated 10:10 AM ET) | Nate Silver
    FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6 Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0 Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1% ...
  • POLITICO: Battleground Tracking Poll: Dead heat

    11/06/2012 6:41:32 AM PST · by Numbers Guy · 30 replies
    The Politico ^ | 11/6/2012 | Politico/GWU
    BOSTON—The presidential race is tied going into Election Day. The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — conducted Sunday and Monday — shows Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama each claiming 47 percent nationally. Our previous poll, conducted Monday through Thursday of last week, found the race tied at 48 percent. Although Romney and Obama have each led at times, the two candidates have stayed within the margin of error since the spring. (Also on POLITICO: 9 takeaways from the 2012 election) Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.
  • Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%: GO VOTE!!

    11/06/2012 5:26:26 AM PST · by SoftwareEngineer · 70 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/06/2012 | Rasmussen Reports
    Tuesday, November 06, 2012 The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll of Election 2012 shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate. See daily tracking history. Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking the president’s job approval rating and other topics, and new results will be updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Both candidates are viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide.
  • Anti-Nate Silver online campaign launched

    11/05/2012 10:55:14 PM PST · by StopDemocratsDotCom · 11 replies
    Im just getting word a team of GOP techies are launching a full site sometime tomorrow called "Nate Silver Was Wrong"..they've already launched a Facebook and Twitter..LOL..Hilarious
  • NY Times claims Obama Slight Electoral Win- 5PM today

    11/05/2012 7:28:56 PM PST · by Individual Rights in NJ · 68 replies
    The New York Times ^ | 11/5/2012 | MICAH COHEN
    If the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and
  • Stat Analysis: Cuyahoga Early Vote Numbers Show Romney Cutting Obama 2008 Lead in STATE by 26%

    11/05/2012 7:20:23 PM PST · by therightliveswithus · 32 replies
    Pundit Press ^ | 11/5/2012 | Matthew
    Down 16% overall, down from 54,340 in 2008 to 45,337 this year-- down 9,007 or 16%. And most of the decline came from Democratic voters. The numbers show a huge increase in GOP voters here: Democrats: 127,741 53.36% or 89% of 2008 Republicans: 47,091 19.67% or 138% of 2008 Other: 64,544 26.96 or 78% of 2008 Total: 239,376 or 84% of 2008 Compare this with the 2008 results: Obama: 458,422 69.05% McCain: 199,880 30.11% Total difference: 258,242 If GOP voting is up 38% in just the early voting and the Republicans are better prepared for election day, they could narrow...
  • Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213

    11/05/2012 7:10:38 PM PST · by Red Steel · 96 replies
    The Hill ^ | 11/05/12 08:21 PM ET | Dick Morris
    Yup. That’s right. A landslide for Romney approaching the magnitude of Obama’s against McCain. That’s my prediction. On Sunday, we changed our clocks. On Tuesday, we’ll change our president. Romney will win the states McCain carried in 2008, plus: Florida, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. In the popular vote, Romney will win by more than 5 points. The Obama campaign made the following key mistakes: • It bet the farm on negative ads in swing states. It didn’t realize that Mitt’s convention speech and the three debates would give him the chance...
  • Exclusive: Romney UP one point in Ohio and TIED in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

    Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio - the swing state that could well decide the election - according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source. Internal campaign polling completed on Sunday night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin. Most startlingly, the figures show Romney and Obama deadlocked in Pennsylvania. If the Romney campaign's internal numbers are correct - and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for...
  • Monday Morning (Noonan: It's Romney)

    11/05/2012 12:14:38 PM PST · by RoosterRedux · 79 replies
    WSJ ^ | 11/5/2012 | Peggy Noonan
    Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving. All the vibrations are right. A person who is helping him who is not a longtime Romneyite told me,...
  • Final Ohio Poll-Results from Ohio Likely Voter Survey (Final Gravis Poll of Ohio: 0 49%, R 48% (+8%

    11/05/2012 3:09:57 PM PST · by Arthurio · 44 replies
    Final Gravis Poll of Ohio: 0 49%, R 48% (+8% Dem) Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1316 likely voters in Ohio on November 4-5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7% and higher for subgroups.
  • National Presidential Ballot Interview dates: November 2-4, 2012 (ARG Final National Poll: R 49%, 0

    11/05/2012 2:36:08 PM PST · by Arthurio · 24 replies
    ARG Final National Poll: R 49%, 0 49% (+ 6 Dem) Interview dates: November 2-4, 2012 Sample size: 1200 likely voters Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points, 95% of the time
  • Vanity: Takeaways in Final Gallup Poll - what the MSM overlooks

    11/05/2012 3:26:03 PM PST · by Arec Barrwin · 13 replies
    Gallup ^ | November 5, 2012 | Arec Barrwin
    A few key takeaways: 1. Almost all of the recent vote surge for O is in the East, which is uniformly (D) anyway 2. In this, the final poll, Romney leads in the Midwest – for the very first time; massive voter swing – he leads in 3 of 4 regions (Midwest, West, & South). This is KEY. Romney has not led in the Midwest in any Gallup survey until this one. This is the key to the election. 3. Romney has firmed up the (R) base to an almost unprecedented degree – but so has Obama on the (D)...
  • Internal polls: Romney up one in OH, two in IA, three in NH, tied in PA and WI

    11/05/2012 3:42:50 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 19 replies
    Hotair ^ | 11/05/2012 | AllahPundit
    The skeptical view of leaking these is that it smacks of what desperate campaigns do when they know they're losing. Remember Tom Barrett? He wanted the world to believe, contra nearly all of the independent polling, that he and Scott Walker were dead even two weeks out from the recall election this summer. That made perfect sense in his case: He was behind, everyone knew it, and he needed a morale booster to keep his base from giving up. How is that analogous to Romney's situation? Is there any Republican anywhere who's given up and thinks O's slight lead in...
  • Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls

    11/05/2012 3:23:30 PM PST · by nhwingut · 110 replies
    Politicker ^ | 11/05/2012 | Colin Campbell
    In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney. “My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.” The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.
  • Everything -- Except the Polls -- Points to a Romney Landslide

    11/05/2012 2:09:23 PM PST · by Kaslin · 41 replies
    Rush Limbaugh.com ^ | November 5, 2012 | Rush Limbaugh
    >BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Well, the Drive-Bys are all excited because Romney has announced he's going back to Ohio tomorrow. On Election Day, Romney is going to Ohio, and the Drive-Bys are trying to interpret that as meaning it's slipping away. Romney has to head back into Ohio on Election Day because it's slipping away. The Drive-Bys are all excited by their own polling data. My friends, I've been looking at all the data that you have been looking at. I've been trying to separate feelings from thoughts and come up with some sort of an educated prognostication. You know, common...
  • Vanity: Question about internal campaign polls vs. public polls

    11/05/2012 2:24:29 PM PST · by Maceman · 25 replies
    OK. I hear that the campaigns actually have "real polls" that are highly proprietary and closely guarded, and much more accurate than the public polls like Gallup and Rasmussen. My question is: What makes them so much more accurate? I realize that there is some funny stuff with the public polls in terms of weighting. But what is the difference in methodology that makes them (reportedly) so much more accurate?
  • Schoen: On Election Eve, ‘Movement’ Towards Romney

    11/05/2012 1:45:11 PM PST · by Arthurio · 18 replies
    NewsMax ^ | 11-5
    With less than 24 hours left before Election Day, “the movement has been in the direction of Mitt Romney” over President Barack Obama, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. “What I see is a presidential race that is within half a percent, according to the Real Clear Politics averages,” Schoen, the former pollster for President Bill Clinton, tells Newsmax. “But the important point that most commentators haven’t noted is that the last two days, maybe even the last day, the movement has been in the direction of Mitt Romney. Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com:...
  • Karl Rove - Electoral Map 11/5

    11/05/2012 1:51:28 PM PST · by workerbee · 89 replies
    rove.com ^ | 11/5/12 | Karl Rove
    Updated electoral map is up.
  • The End of Our National Tragedy? Romney Takes Lead in Final Rasmussen Poll ( Gallup also)

    11/05/2012 11:34:50 AM PST · by Ernest_at_the_Beach · 26 replies
    The Gateway Pundit ^ | Monday, November 5, 2012, 9:42 AM | Jim Hoft
    Full Title:*******************************************************The End of Our National Tragedy? Romney Takes Lead in Final Rasmussen Poll …Update: Romney Leads in Gallup Poll Too*********************************************     Is the end of our national tragedy near? Mitt Romney took the lead today in the final Rasmussen poll before election day. Romney leads President Obama by one point, 49-48.Rasmussen reported: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking...