Keyword: natesilver

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  • Climate scientist being investigated by Congress for not believing in global warming enough

    02/26/2015 9:44:40 AM PST · by Cincinatus' Wife · 12 replies
    Amerian Thinker ^ | February 26, 2015 | Rick Moran
    Roger Pielke, a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, and six others are under investigation by Congress regarding testimony they've given on the subject of climate change.Pielke, a believer in man-caused global warming, can't quite figure out why he's the object of a witch hunt....................... What am I accused of that prompts being investigated? Here is my crime: Prof. Roger Pielke, Jr., at CU’s Center for Science and Technology Policy Research has testified numerous times before the U.S. Congress on climate change and its economic impacts. His 2013 Senate testimony featured the claim, often repeated, that it...
  • The Strange Source of Our Cuba Policy

    12/21/2014 6:56:04 AM PST · by Kaslin · 10 replies ^ | December 21, 2014 | Steve Chapman
    For a long time, the U.S. ostracism of Cuba has been like the vintage American cars on the streets of Havana: obsolete but imperishable. It didn't topple the Castro government, didn't force human rights progress and didn't unite the world behind us. Yet failure was no enemy of longevity. There are many reasons for its endurance. But if you're parceling out responsibility, you have to start with a curious invention of the founding fathers that we know as the Electoral College. Without it, our Cuba policy never would have persisted for so many years -- which is a reminder that...
  • The Celebrated Nate Silver's Polls Were Off; Really, Really Off

    11/05/2014 11:09:27 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 22 replies
    Christian Post ^ | 11/5/2014 | David French
    Check out these two tables, both courtesy of Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight's fascinating live blog. First, check out the Democratic bias in the senate polling: Next, here are the gubernatorial numbers: That's a striking contrast between predictions and reality. As they say in sports, "that's why you play the game." That's why we hold elections. In this election at least, the "experts" were confident America was more blue than it wanted to be.David French is Senior Counsel and Director of Digital Advocacy at the American Center for Law and Justice.
  • Nate Silver: 74 Percent Chance GOP Will Take Senate

    11/03/2014 7:51:12 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 53 replies
    Breitbart TV ^ | on Breitbart TV 2 Nov 2014 | on Breitbart TV 2 Nov 2014
    On Sunday's broadcast of ABC's "This Week," Nate Silver of said statistically, the Republican Party has strong odds for its chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate following next week's midterm elections. Partial transcript as follows: STEPHANOPOULOS: You might remember Nate Silver from 2012. He's the forecast from And his statistical take on the presidential election was dead on, correctly predicting how all 50 states would break. He's inspired all kinds of imitators. This time around, all of them are predicting a big election for the GOP. The New York Times giving the Republicans a 70...
  • Concha: As Bleak Prospects Show, Democratic Race-Baiting Tactics Being Rejected

    10/31/2014 2:16:50 PM PDT · by walford · 11 replies
    Mediaite ^ | October 31st, 2014 | Joe Concha
    As you may have heard, we’re now only four days away from the 2014 midterms and gubernatorial races mercifully coming to an end, save for a likely runoff in Louisiana. And as you’ve also heard lately, race–for all the wrong reasons–has become a central theme for the party in blue. Speaking of the Bayou State, its likely-to-be-unemployed-after-said-runoff and current senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) had this to say to Chuck Todd (a good get via hustle by the new MTP moderator, by the way) regarding the reason behind her not inviting President Obama for help on the campaign trail: “The South...
  • Nate Silver: Are Democrats disadvantaged by (gasp) skewed polls?

    10/15/2014 8:09:45 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 40 replies
    Hotair ^ | 10/15/2014 | Noah Rothman
    During the 2012 election, and to a lesser extent in the 2010 cycle, it became popular for poll-watchers on the right to dig into the sample data of individual polls, compare that sample available exit polling, and apply some judgment as to whether or not that poll was likely to accurately reflect the results on Election Day. In 2012, however, too many on the right began reflexively engaging in this practice for every poll with the aim of diving preferred results out of an otherwise disappointing poll. A few thoughtless types on the left would shriek, and not without...
  • Nate Silver's Senate Update: When Should Democrats Panic?

    09/29/2014 10:02:48 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 57 replies
    Five Thirty Eight Politics ^ | 09/29/2014 | Nate Silver
    The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll always makes news and with good reason: The pollster that conducts it, Selzer & Company, is among the best in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings. On Saturday evening, the poll had an especially interesting result in Iowa’s Senate race. It put the Republican candidate Joni Ernst six points ahead of the Democrat, Representative Bruce Braley. Most other recent polls of the state had shown a roughly tied race. Consider the implications. Republicans need to pick up six seats to win the Senate. Right now, they’re favored to win the Democratic-held seats in...
  • Nate Silver's Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?

    09/16/2014 10:15:38 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 77 replies
    FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ^ | 09/16/2014 | Nate Silver
    When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.What’s happened? The chart below lists the change in our forecast in each state between Sept. 3 (when our model launched) and our current (Sept. 15) update.As you...
  • FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge

    09/03/2014 7:25:24 PM PDT · by Signalman · 5 replies
    fivethirtyeightpolitics ^ | 9/3/2014 | Nate Silver
    The FiveThirtyEight Senate model is launching Wednesday. We’ll be rolling it out in stages, with additional features, functionality and further methodological detail. We’ll also be unveiling our new set of pollster ratings and publicly releasing our database of all the polls used to calculate them. So there’s a lot more to come. But if you’re looking for a headline, we have two. First, Republicans are favored to take the Senate, at least in our view; the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so. The reasons for the GOP advantage are pretty straightforward. Midterm elections are...
  • Nate Silver Is Half Right About the Tea Party

    05/25/2014 4:06:56 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 31 replies
    Townhall ^ | May 24, 2014 | Kevin Glass
    The resounding victory that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell scored over "tea party" businessman Matt Bevin this past week has thrown the media into a tizzy. Is the "tea party" dead? Did the GOP establishment kill it? Or did the GOP subsume the tea party, taking its candidates, its issues, and its ideology for the GOP? Nate Silver writes that recent "tea party vs. establishment GOP" stories are inadequate: The term “tea party” is applied very loosely by the political media. Was Missouri Rep. Todd Akin a member of the tea party, for instance? Weigel says no: Most groups associated...
  • Karl Rove flip-flops on Nate Silver

    04/30/2014 6:06:57 PM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 15 replies
    Politico ^ | 04-30-2014 | Dylan Byers
    And yet just when the news is getting good, Rove is calling Silver's whole methodology into doubt. On Wednesday, he tweeted a link to a National Journal column titled "Why I Don't Agree With Nate Silver: Number-crunching Senate prediction models are fun to follow but are not very useful." "Smart piece: may disagree w/ some specifics, but major point is correct," Rove wrote. The major point is that the methodology behind Silver's projections is flawed: "Unlike baseball, where the sample size runs in the thousands of at-bats or innings pitched, these models overemphasize a handful of early polls at the...
  • Jindal now wants LA to get out of Common Core

    04/15/2014 5:59:29 PM PDT · by Wisconsinlady · 8 replies
    I J Review ^ | 04/15/14 | Kyle Becker
    Now,Jindal wants to withdraw the state of Louisiana from the Common Core standards, whether the state legislature approves measures to do so or the governor himself begins the withdrawal process.
  • Like Bush, Many Republicans Are Moderate on Immigration

    04/15/2014 5:45:45 PM PDT · by ObamahatesPACoal · 41 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | Nate Silver
    The Republican Party has grown more conservative over the past couple of decades. But news commentators sometimes wrongly imply that GOP voters take an extremist position on every issue. As I described on Friday, for example, Jeb Bush’s support of Common Core educational standards isn’t likely to hurt him if he runs for president in 2016; the issue is neither all that relevant to most Republicans nor all that divisive. If candidates running to Bush’s right are looking for a wedge issue, they’ll probably have some better choices.
  • A Gaffe Can Matter When It Motivates the Base (Iowa Democrat Bruce Braley)

    04/01/2014 2:08:03 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 4 replies
    FiveThirtyEightPolitics ^ | April 1, 2014 | Nate Silver
    We recently published a forecast that described the GOP as more likely than not to win the U.S. Senate in November. But our analysis was less bullish on Republicans’ prospects of flipping the seat in Iowa currently held by Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, who is retiring. There, Democrats appeared to have a strong candidate in Rep. Bruce Braley, who has cleared his primary field. Republicans, meanwhile, face a contentious primary with a number of candidates who have never won races for statewide or federal office. After we published our forecast, the Republican PAC America Rising released a video of Braley,...
  • For Columnist, a Change of Tone (Krugman vs. 538/Nate Silver)

    03/26/2014 5:32:28 PM PDT · by Olog-hai · 2 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 03/26/2014 6:24 PM | Nate Silver
    A New York Times columnist has expressed substantially more negative sentiments about FiveThirtyEight since it left The New York Times, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. The columnist, Paul Krugman, who writes about economics and politics for The Times, has referred to FiveThirtyEight or editor-in-chief Nate Silver 33 times on his blog. FiveThirtyEight classified each reference based on whether it expressed a favorable, unfavorable or neutral sentiment toward FiveThirtyEight. …
  • Progressives Turn on Their Prodigies: Ezra Klein and Nate Silver fall from Liberal Grace

    03/25/2014 10:19:10 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 15 replies
    National Review ^ | 03/25/2014 | Charles C.W. Cooke
    Much to the delight and self-satisfaction of the reality-based community, “Big Data” has been en vogue of late, and to such an extent that it has promised to make hipsters of the terminally uncool. In the space of just a few weeks, both Nate Silver and Ezra Klein have launched brand new websites, which, although imperceptibly different in their core objectives, both promised to overlook the “fundamentally useless” “pundits” that sully the nation’s media and to replace them with the calm explication and modest objectivity that one can only get from the sort of detached, numbers-driven pragmatists who made their...
  • Democrats to Nate Silver: You're Wrong (Mad at him for Predicting GOP Senate Takeover)

    03/24/2014 8:58:40 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 20 replies
    National Journal ^ | 03/24/2014 | Alex Roarty
    Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down. In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014. "In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecast a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority," Cecil said. "Three months later, Democrats went on to win 55 seats."...
  • FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

    03/23/2014 12:37:35 PM PDT · by Olog-hai · 14 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 10:00 am | Mar 23, 2014 | Nate Silver
    When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast—way back in July—we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber. Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before....
  • Nate Silver Rips Thomas Friedman: Not Much 'Original Thinking'

    03/14/2014 11:26:38 AM PDT · by george76 · 17 replies
    Breitbart ^ | 14 Mar 2014 | John Nolte
    Five-Thirty-Eight's Nate Silver mocked New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman as a "hedgehog" who "only knows one thing." When asked to describe what a hedgehog is, Silver pointed to Friedman specifically and the op-ed columnists at the Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal: ... They don’t permit a lot of complexity in their thinking. They pull threads together from very weak evidence and draw grand conclusions based on them. They’re ironically very predictable from week to week. If you know the subject that Thomas Friedman or whatever is writing about, you don’t have to read the column. You can...
  • Who Scares Democrats More Than the Koch Brothers? Nate Silver.

    03/14/2014 9:11:07 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 19 replies
    National Journal ^ | 03/12/2014 | Scott Bland
    For the last few months, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver has been largely absent from the political forecasting scene he owned in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. But that hasn't stopped the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from sending at least 11 fundraising emails featuring Silver in the subject line over the past four months, even as Silver was building the foundation for his new website that's launching Monday and was not writing regularly. It's all part of a digital fundraising game that will increase in intensity as the election draws nearer, as candidates, political parties, and other groups bombard their...
  • Nate Silver: Media is overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.

    10/10/2013 7:50:14 PM PDT · by jern · 28 replies
    538 ^ | 10/10/13 | Nate Silver
    That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around. There's been plenty of bullshit, in other words. We really don't know all that much about how the shutdown is going to be resolved, or how the long-term political consequences are going to play out.
  • Nate Silver: GOP Closer to Taking Senate Control in 2014

    07/16/2013 7:46:55 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 22 replies
    NewsMax ^ | 07/16/2013 | Lisa Baron
    Republicans might be close to winning control of the Senate after next year's elections, according to New York Times statistician Nate Silver. Writing in his "FiveThirtyEight" blog on Monday, Silver said this weekend's announcement by former Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer that he would not run for the Senate "represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber." The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey's special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver. The loss will leave Republicans...
  • Nate Silver Predicts GOP Holding 50-51 Senate Seats After 2014 Election

    07/15/2013 3:19:14 PM PDT · by SMGFan · 32 replies
    TPM ^ | July 15, 2013
    Following former Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision not to run for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat this weekend, New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections.
  • Nate Silver Ranks Walker Most Rightwing Gov in the Country (Liberal blog)

    07/12/2013 6:39:05 PM PDT · by CreviceTool · 12 replies ^ | July 11, 2013 | Jud Lounsbury
    According to Nate Silver, the New York Time's never-wrong politcal statistician, Scott Walker is the third most conservative governor in the country, based on his score in three categories: Congressional Voting Record, Rightwing Fundraising, and Public Issue Statements. Walker, of course, has no congressional voting record, which makes his average score of 57 slightly below the leaders that have congressional voting records. However, if just rightwing fundraising appeal and public issue statements are considered, Walker wins the title as the most conservative governor in the country. Walker isn't just conservative, he's off the charts into rightwing luny land. He beats...
  • How insider Nate Silver was able to make better 2012 predictions- The IRS card. Morris owed apology

    05/28/2013 2:18:58 PM PDT · by NoLibZone · 29 replies ^ | May 28 2013 | NLZ NOT Free Republic
    Given that we now know that the Federal government used its full weight and resources to stop the voter participation in the 2012 elections we know see how an insider could make better predictions.
  • The Signal and the Silence: When is prediction useful—and when is it dangerous?

    04/16/2013 11:01:46 PM PDT · by neverdem · 14 replies
    City Journal ^ | Spring 2013 | ADAM WHITE
    Ever since leading the Boston Red Sox to victory in the 2007 World Series, Josh Beckett had been a mainstay of the teamÂ’s pitching rotation. But when he hobbled off the mound with an ankle injury on September 5, 2011, the Red Sox faithful took the news in stride. After all, their team was the hottest in baseball. The previous winter, the Sox had acquired two of the sportÂ’s most sought-after players, outfielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The acquisitions led the Boston Herald to declare the team the TOP SOX SQUAD OF ALL TIME before it had...
  • Obama Keeps it Real: Fake Plant for Fake Products for Fake Cars

    03/11/2013 1:58:02 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 11 replies ^ | March, 11, 2013 | John Ransom
    Here’s something that slipped through the cracks thanks to the fake drama that was going on during the fake fiscal crisis coming from our fake government in Washington, DC: Another fake green company boondoggle has resulted in federal dollars being spent on …nothing. According to a report issued by the Department of Energy’s own inspector general, employees at LG Chem, a Korean company that operates a battery plant in Holland, Michigan- a plant that’s supposed to support the Chevy Volt- were paid for playing video games, board games, volunteer work at Habitat for Humanity and other local charities. Another fake-work...
  • Did Nate Silver Tip the 2012 Election to Obama? (Will Quit if He's Too Powerful)

    02/15/2013 9:37:20 PM PST · by nickcarraway · 15 replies
    The Week ^ | 2/15/2013 | Peter Weber
    The New York Times stats whiz says he'll stop blogging if his poll analysis sways future contestsNate Silver was vilified by some Republicans and political journalists during the 2012 election, and embraced by Democrats looking for a fix of reassuring political news during rocky periods of President Obama's re-election bid. This week, the seemingly prophetic New York Times–employed political polling aggregator told an audience of students at Washington University in St. Louis that "the polls can certainly affect elections at times." They're not supposed to, Silver added, but some voters may "take the forecasts too seriously." Then, says Michael Tabb...
  • Nate Silver's Super Bowl Pick: The 49ers (Nate Silver in hiding now...)

    02/04/2013 9:48:13 AM PST · by jimbo123 · 5 replies
    Atlantic Wire ^ | 1/30/2013 | LEXANDER ABAD-SANTOS
    Sure, Nate Silver was on-point during the 2012 election, but before you place your bets behind the bespectacled number genie, remember that he predicted that this would be a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl — and that he's gotten a little better at the politics game than anything else. But in a column for The New York Times Magazine published online today, Silver breaks down his latest mumbo-jumbo over S.R.S. rankings and something called the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which is exciting if you're a statistician groupie — just not if you're a Baltimore Ravens fan. In the end, Silver seems to...
  • Statistician Nate Silver predicts Seahawks-Patriots rematch in Super Bowl(Seahawks Lose Today)

    01/13/2013 3:10:22 PM PST · by Colonel Kangaroo · 34 replies
    SeattlePI ^ | 1-10-2013 | Nick Eaton
    Nate Silver, the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blogger and statistician who rose to prominence accurately predicting sports and elections, has run the numbers and has come to a conclusion: The Seahawks, he predicts, will play in the Super Bowl. There, they’ll take on the New England Patriots, Silver thinks. And while the Seahawks may not be the second-best team in the NFL — Silver says that’s probably the Denver Broncos — they may just be the best team in the NFC. “There’s always uncertainty with any metric,” Silver told ESPN’s “First Take.” “I do think with a Seattle team that...
  • The Best or Worst Pollsters in the 2012 Election – How did Nate Silver Do It? (Gallup is Dead Last)

    11/14/2012 8:36:10 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Patheos ^ | 11/13/2012 | Tim Suttle
    Nate Silver has gotten a lot of press for his near perfect election night predictions. In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and now that Florida has been called for president Obama, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.How did Silver do it?Only Likely Voters Matter: This is one obvious reason SilverÂ’s method outshines everyone else. Anything other than likely voter models is useless information. This is key....
  • FiveThirtyEight Forecast Barack Obama 313.0 Romney 225.0 Electoral Vote

    11/06/2012 10:27:27 AM PST · by Laissez-faire capitalist · 51 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 11/6/2012 (updated 10:10 AM ET) | Nate Silver
    FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6 Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0 Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1% ...
  • New FB Page "Nate Silver Wrong"

    11/06/2012 8:42:45 AM PST · by jpeg82 · 13 replies
    Facebook ^ | 11/6/2-12 | Bate Silver Wrong
    "Dedicated to the heavenly statistician God from the NY Times who for months swore Obama was going to win..with a 91% probability"
  • Anti-Nate Silver online campaign launched

    11/05/2012 10:55:14 PM PST · by StopDemocratsDotCom · 11 replies
    Im just getting word a team of GOP techies are launching a full site sometime tomorrow called "Nate Silver Was Wrong"..they've already launched a Facebook and Twitter..LOL..Hilarious
  • NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%

    11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 53 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 11/05/2012 | Henry Blodget
    With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it,...
  • Nate Silver just covered his A**

    11/04/2012 10:56:56 AM PST · by Tom Riker · 25 replies
    Twitter ^ | 11/04/12 | Tom Riker
    We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1. 30 percent IF its R+1? really? so you basically drop 68 points and a romney win if the only thing changes is O goes from tie turnout to plus r 1? Pew, Gallup and Rassmussen show turnout at R + 1-3 points...
  • Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased (Silver: 83.7% Chance Obama Win)

    11/03/2012 6:56:11 AM PDT · by PJ-Comix · 68 replies
    NY Times FiveThirtyEight ^ | November 3, 2012 | Nate Silver
    President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.
  • Nate Silver, 2009: Any Candidate Losing Independents "Must Necessarily" Lose The Election

    11/01/2012 8:10:29 PM PDT · by FL2012 · 24 replies
    Ace Of Spades HQ ^ | November 1, 2012 | Ace
    Lot of things have changed since then, though. Like, for example: Silver's preferred candidate losing the independent vote.
  • If You Can't Withstand Media BS, Turn Off Everything Else...(Rush Slams Concern Trolls Alert)

    11/01/2012 11:20:19 AM PDT · by goldstategop · 28 replies
    Rush Limbaugh ^ | 11/01/2012 | Rush Limbaugh
    RUSH: Folks, I'm gonna give you some advice. For those of you who are faint of heart, for those of you who scare easily, for those of you who... Let’s say you live in St. Louis. In the St. Louis Post-Dispatch today there are two pictures. There's a picture of a compassionate and caring and very attached and very hurting Obama, hugging a New Jerseyan who's lost everything. Right next to it is a picture of Romney in front of a large gathering waving and doing campaign appearances. Of course, the juxtaposition is Romney doesn't care; Obama cares. If you...
  • Nate Silver Ups The Ante On Historic Wager Offer With Joe Scarborough (Who will win the elections?)

    11/01/2012 8:32:50 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 28 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 11/01/2012 | Joe Weisenthal
    Punditry vs. numbers! Old school journalists vs. data-driven wonks! Scouts vs. Moneyball! Nate Silver (who has become increasingly embattled for his confident assessments of Obama's chances) just offered Joe Scarborough a wager that will redefine the future of journalism.
  • DUmmie FUnnies 11-01-12 (DUmmies Hug Their Nate Silver Security Blanket)

    11/01/2012 7:40:15 AM PDT · by PJ-Comix · 40 replies
    DUmmie FUnnies ^ | November 1, 2012 | DUmmies and PJ-Comix
    Nate Silver is just $10 away from predicting that Obama has an 82.7% chance of winning!Perhaps the most laughable aspect of this election season is the way the DUmmies have embraced the PRECISE prognostications of one Nate Silver. Silver's shtick isn't to merely announce poll results that are artificially weighted in favor of Democrats. Any run of the mill leftwing pollster, such as PPP, can do that. Silver takes it to the next level in which he dramatically announced to the exact decimal point the chances that Obama has of winning. As of Halloween, Silver has declared that Obama...
  • In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Lean Is Slight, but Durable ( Nate Silver Watch Oct 29 )

    10/29/2012 3:01:30 PM PDT · by NoLibZone · 15 replies
    New York Times ^ | Oct 29 2012 | Nate Silver
    New reports indicate that the 2012 presidential campaign is coming to Pennsylvania. After a spate of advertising during the summer, Pennsylvania — in a break from tradition — has largely avoided the volume of campaign commercials that states like Ohio and Virginia have seen. But beginning Tuesday, Restore Our Future, a “super-PAC” supporting Mitt Romney, will blanket Pennsylvania with about $2 million worth of advertisements. President Obama’s advisers greeted that news on Monday by saying that the Obama campaign would also spend advertising money in the Keystone State between now and Election Day. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state...
  • Nate Silver: 'Romney, clearly, could still win'

    10/29/2012 2:44:15 PM PDT · by Arthurio · 27 replies
    By DYLAN BYERS | 10/29/12 3:27 PM EDT Nate Silver could be a one-term celebrity. The New York Times' resident political predictor says President Barack Obama currently has a 74.6% chance of winning re-election. It's a prediction that liberals, whose heart rates continue to fluctuate with the release of every new poll, want to take solace in, but somehow can't. Sure, this is the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 election in 49 of 50 states, but this year's polls suggest a nail-biter. "Romney, clearly, could still win," Silver told POLITICO today.
  • Nate Silver is partisan and wrong (ACTUAL Newspaper Headline)

    10/29/2012 9:20:57 AM PDT · by SoftwareEngineer · 8 replies
    The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 10/29/2012 | Dr. Tim Stanley
    In the history of presidential elections, has there ever been such an effort by one side to poll their way to victory? While the Republicans have spoken this season about jobs and debt – willing themselves to a moral victory – the Democrats have talked constantly about how well their guy is polling in one or two states. The goal is to create a sense of inevitability, to convince the public to vote for Obama because he’s a winner and who wouldn’t want to vote for the winner? We’ve witnessed the evolution of polling from an objective gauge of the...
  • FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down: Ohio a Near Lock for Obama

    10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT · by nwrep · 107 replies
    The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight Blog | October 27, 2012 | nwrep
    Click on the link below for the analysis. There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney. It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results. I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political...
  • Signs and Omens: Obama’s Fading Hope and the Graveyard Whistling Choir

    10/24/2012 11:28:54 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 4 replies
    The Other McCain ^ | October 23, 2012 | Robert Stacy McCain
    Nate Silver continues to lead the Democrat Graveyard Whistling Choir, raising Obama to a 70.3% likelihood of victory based on . . . what? I dunno. I’m not an expert with a New York Times column or anything, much less a Magical Forecasting Model™ that can divine future events with the precise scientific exactitude of 1/10 of one percent. This morning, Silver told us that Ohio might be a crucial battleground, which may be news to a victim who just escaped from an underground rape-dungeon after nine months of being held hostage and tortured by a sociopathic sex offender. But...
  • In National Polling, It’s Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)

    10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT · by radpolis · 43 replies
    New York Times ^ | 10/19/2012 | Nate Silver
    The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday. However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio....
  • NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Climbed Back To 66%

    10/18/2012 7:32:56 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 54 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 10/18/2012 | Henry Blodget
    Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking: Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecastIntrade's prediction marketBetfair's prediction market First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at. Nate Silver, New York Times  On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high...
  • Why is the New York Times, Nate Silver apoplectic over a local poll from Michigan?

    09/03/2012 9:50:53 AM PDT · by jmaroneps37 · 17 replies ^ | Sept. 3, 2012 | Kevin “Coach” Collins
    Last week we got a report on a Mitchell poll from Michigan that has the New York Times swinging off the rafters. The Grey Lady got so apoplectic over the results because they showed Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied at 47/47 in Michigan. Writing his rebuttal to this “outrage” the Times’ Nate Silver cited another poll that upon closer review provides virtually the same results. Silver’s new best friends at the Lansing-based EPIC-MRA polling company say Obama leads 49/46 with a 2.6 +/- Margin of Error which is all but the same thing. That the EPIC-MRA poll conducted in...
  • Rick Perry rebound in Iowa: Assisted by veterans?

    12/14/2011 6:07:52 PM PST · by smoothsailing · 119 replies · 1+ views
    Christian Science Monitor ^ | 12-14-2011 | Liz Marlantes
    Rick Perry rebound in Iowa: Assisted by veterans? Polls show Rick Perry gaining ground and Newt Gingrich weakening in Iowa. Why Rick Perry may be picking up the vet vote. By Liz Marlantes, DCDecoder / December 14, 2011 Lots of news stories today about how the race to win Iowa is still wide open. The New York Times’ Nate Silver takes a whirl through the polling data and says any of five candidates could plausibly win. And Politico’s Maggie Haberman reports that internal poll numbers from the Mitt Romney and Rick Perry camps show Newt Gingrich’s lead in Iowa is...