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Google’s Gemini AI chatbot has refused to say whether Elon Musk tweeting memes or Adolf Hitler ordering the deaths of millions of people is worse and asserted “there is no right or wrong answer,” according to a tweet shared by Nate Silver. Silver, the former head of data and polling news site FiveThirtyEight, posted a screenshot Sunday on X of Gemini’s alleged response to the question: “Who negatively impacted society more, Elon tweeting memes or Hitler?”. “It is not possible to say who definitively impacted society more, Elon tweeting memes or Hitler,” the answer from the search giant’s AI software...

Famed pollster Nate Silver said President Biden is headed for defeat this November due to his age and declining job performance — and the Democrats have “no plan to fix the problems.” Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of the FiveThirtyEight statistics website, said that, while the incumbent president “can still win,” it will only be the result of polls being wrong or “voters [who] look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it.” “Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of...

Political commentator and elections analyst Nate Silver is sounding the alarm about President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection, writing in a Substack post that Biden is “losing” and appears to have no clear plan to right the ship. While Silver believes that Biden was “a reasonably clear favorite” a year ago, he now believes that he’s “probably the underdog” due to his poor approval rating, dearth of “contingencies that could improves his situation,” as well as public perception of his age and abilities. The FiveThirtyEight founder went on to argued that if Biden won’t run a “normal” campaign during...

Pollster Nate Silver warned Democrats and the "expert class" that President Biden’s distinction as the oldest-serving president in history at age 80 is a source of "valid concern" for voters. "If the expert class doesn’t understand that Biden’s age is both a real concern for voters and a valid concern, they’d better be prepared for getting a second Trump term instead," Silver wrote in an analysis piece on Sunday. "This election is probably going to be close, and [former President] Trump might be only one Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment away from winning," he added. Pollster Nate Silver warned Democrats and the "expert class"...

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver is exiting ABC News as The Walt Disney Company ramps up layoffs, Variety has confirmed. ABC News will hold onto the FiveThirtyEight brand with plans to streamline the statistics-driven news and analysis site. The network plans to create a more efficient structure for FiveThirtyEight leading into the 2024 presidential election and beyond. Silver sent a message to his team in a company Slack channel warning that the Disney layoffs would impact FiveThirtyEight, and that Silver is not planning to return after his contract ends. Silver said in a tweet, “Disney layoffs have substantially impacted FiveThirtyEight. I...

As Democrats’ prospects for the midterms have improved — they’re now up to a 71 percent chance of keeping the Senate and a 29 percent chance of retaining the House, according to the 2022 FiveThirtyEight midterm election forecast1 — I’ve observed a corresponding increase in concern among liberals that the polls might overestimate Democrats’ position again, as they did in 2016 and 2020. Even among commenters who are analyzing the race from an arm’s-length distance, there sometimes seems to be a presumption that the polls will be biased toward Democrats.

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Democrats currently have the lead in the race for the Senate. This is in part because in a few key races, Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November. But as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, Republicans still have plenty of potential opportunities for pick-ups. The party’s best chance is currently in Georgia.

As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “toss-up.” But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55 percent. That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40 percent in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.

Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November. Key findings: Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process. So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats. After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting...

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that he was not “buying” former Gov. Sarah Palin’s political comeback bid for her state’s sole seat on the U.S. House of Representatives. Anchor Jon Karl said, “Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is attempting a political comeback nearly 14 years after Sen. John McCain made her the Republican Party’s first female candidate for vice president. She’s running for Alaska’s lone House seat following the death of longtime Congressman Don Young. Donald Trump has already endorsed her but does she have a shot at winning? Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — more than double the probability of his nearest competitor — according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders’ odds at “1 in 2,” with former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds at “1 in 5,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at “1 in 20,” and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at “1 in 30.” All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at “1 in 100” odds. Sanders is also currently...

FiveThirtyEight election forecaster Nate Silver called on Fox News and the Associated Press to retract their early projections that Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden would win the state of Arizona, saying that the race is getting very tight. The remark from Silver comes after more votes were counted in Maricopa County which caused Biden’s lead over Trump to shrink.

We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning,...

Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday. Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight's average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania. What he's saying: Silver told "This Week" that if Trump ends up winning the election, "it would come down to Pennsylvania." "Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7-...

Election analyst Nate Silver runs a website called FiveThirtyEight.His website now gives Joe Biden a 77 in 100 chance of winning (we call that a 77% chance, but whatever). For the record, on Election Day 2016, at 10:41 a.m., Silver posted a story on FiveThirtyEight.“Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton,” said his headline. Silver said his “forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina.” He hedged his bet...

Nate Silver was the only Lefty pollster who gave a Trump chance in 2016. NATE SILVER — “If you take the polls at face value right now—with Biden gaining/holding steady in AZ, WI, MI but losing ground in PA & FL, then Arizona is the tipping-point state right now, which could lead to the map shown here. This is a winning map for Biden, but it’s precarious.”

Summary: Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition. But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which...

At the end of the day, it's only July, there are a lot of unprecedented events happening, polling is more accurate than its critics think but probably *not* as accurate as it was in say 2004-2012—and if we wind up in a photo finish, Trump likely wins b/c of the Electoral College.

Polling guru Nate Silver sees "a lot of issues" with President Trump's quest for reelection in November. So much so that a "landslide" for Joe Biden is possible. Silver appeared on ABC over the weekend to share the "big news" that FiveThirtyEight released its presidential polling averages last week.

The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!That is what most of the media want you to believe about the 2020 election. This explains the recent spate of reports about the Russians attempting to hack the results of the upcoming election just as they supposedly did with the 2016 election despite no solid proof. And among those who saw no real proof of Russian influence on the 2016 election is someone who is among the ones most steeped in the electoral facts of that election, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.