Keyword: natesilver

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  • What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes

    11/09/2016 6:39:58 PM PST · by MUDDOG · 72 replies
    Fivethirtyeight ^ | 11-9-2016 | Nate Silver
    Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s a sea of red for President-elect Donald Trump. He earned 306 electoral votes and became the first Republican since 1988 to win Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Silver sold em fools gold

    Hillary was at 76% odds of winning according to this buffoon today... Effing idiot. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  • Nate Silver: 2016 Polls Less Reliable Than Prior Years

    Many 2016 polls may prove incorrect because so many Americans are undecided or else say they’re backing third parties, says Nate Silver, founder of the fivethirtyeight.com polling firm. “Undecideds are MUCH higher than normal,” Silver said in a Tuesday morning tweet. “So risk of a polling error — in either direction — is higher than usual.” One out of eight voters, or 12.5 percent, are either undecided or declaring support for other candidates during the last few days of the election. That is up from one out of 32 voters in 2012, one out of 27 voters in 2004 and...
  • NATE SILVER PREDICTS TRUMP WINS FLORIDA

    11/06/2016 3:16:07 PM PST · by Simon Foxx · 71 replies
    DAILY CALLER ^ | 11/6/2016 | PHILLIP STUCKY
    Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.
  • Nate Silver: Polls showing Clinton up 5 points not backed by data

    11/06/2016 12:31:59 PM PST · by SoFloFreeper · 16 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 11/6/16 | Daniel Chaitin
    For supporters of Donald Trump who are discouraged by the latest slate of polls showing Hillary Clinton up 5 percent just days before Election Day, polling guru Nate Silver had some reassuring words Sunday morning. "Some people are saying Clinton's up 5-6 nationally. That's just not a good representation of what the data says," Silver tweeted. But, he admitted, Clinton does have a lead.
  • Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions about Donald Trump are Terrifying

    11/04/2016 2:09:10 PM PDT · by mathprof · 16 replies
    Paleofuture ^ | 11/4/2016 | Matt Novak
    Nobody knows what the future holds. That’s what makes it so interesting—and often terrifying. But it’s become increasingly clear that the person who knows the least about the future is the one that everybody has been turning to for answers about the future of American politics: Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver emerged as Our National Oracle™ after successfully predicting many of the results in the 2008 election. But as Silver’s satirical counterpart, Carl Diggler, has proven time and again, you may as well just be going with gut instinct based on Silver’s terrible track record since 2008.
  • The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does

    11/02/2016 10:12:17 PM PDT · by justlittleoleme · 40 replies
    Five Thirty Eight ^ | Oct 30, 2016 at 7:53 AM | Rob Arthur
    It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.) But if Chicago is going to have any chance of a Series win, they’ll have to awaken their bats in Sunday’s game.
  • 538 Nate has Trump moving up now almost 30% chance of winning.

    11/01/2016 3:18:13 PM PDT · by IVAXMAN · 50 replies
    fivethirtyeight.com ^ | 11/1/2016 | Nate Silver
    Nate Silver has Trump's odds of winning at 29%. Been slowly climbing all day. He has been wrong about Trump every time but the new polls are making him move.
  • US election 2016: statistician Nate Silver's big Donald Trump mistake

    10/30/2016 6:18:43 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 28 replies
    The Sydney | October 31, 2016 | Margaret Sullivan
    Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-2016-statistician-nate-silvers-big-donald-trump-mistake-20161030-gseaye.html
  • Leaked Monmouth U. polling memo: Democrats ‘despondent’; Hillary..., seen as a ‘lying harpy’

    The Florida geography is also working against us. Hillary has 53+ Field Offices and they’re empty of volunteers. This lack of enthusiasm is showing up in the voting responses and it’s killing us. The “cell phones” rationale will only hold out for so long.
  • Nate Silver's 538: Trump would win if election were held today

    09/26/2016 1:28:36 PM PDT · by Sean_Anthony · 11 replies
    Canada Free Press ^ | 09/26/16 | Robert Laurie
    Dunh-dunh-duuuun Last week, we discussed the fact that Hillary’s odds of victory were collapsing - despite massively outspending her opponent. At the time, her chances of taking the White House had fallen to just over 53%. The data came to us via Nate Silver’s 538 site. Long a favorite among Democrats, Silver is a statistician who rose to national prominence during the 2008 presidential race, when he correctly predicted 49 of 50 state outcomes. In 2012, he went 50 for 50. A month ago, he gave Hillary Clinton a 96% chance of victory. How times have changed:
  • Who will win the Presidency?

    09/26/2016 8:23:42 AM PDT · by ConservativeDude · 30 replies
    fivethirtyeight blog ^ | September 26, 2016 | Nate Silver, et al
    Clinton chance of winning: 51.8% Trump chance of winning: 48.2%
  • Nate Silver: Trump closing in, Clinton lead 'a lot less safe' than Obama's in 2012

    09/25/2016 2:51:05 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | September 25, 2016 | Paige Winfield Cunningham
    (TWEET-AT-LINK) A model from election-forecasting whiz Nate Silver shows Donald Trump once again closing in on Hillary Clinton, as he did right after the party conventions in July, and warned that Clinton's lead is "a lot less safe" than President Obama's lead in the polls in 2012. Silver's FiveThirtyEight website currently gives Clinton a 58.1 percent chance and Trump a 41.9 percent chance of becoming president. That's not the closest the two candidates have been, as Silver's widely-respected projection showed them neck-and-neck on July 30. Clinton opened a wider lead over Trump in August in Silver's model, but Trump has...
  • Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

    09/23/2016 12:28:49 PM PDT · by nhwingut · 18 replies
    Five Thirty Eight ^ | 09/22/2016 | Harry Enton
    Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week. Our polls-only forecast gives her a 59 percent chance of beating Donald Trump, while our polls-plus model shows her with a 58 percent chance. Some interested parties are pointing to individual polls as evidence of a Clinton rebound, but a closer look at all the data released over the past three days suggests that those people are stretching.
  • Nate Silver: Despite massively outspending Trump, Clinton's odds of victory collapsing

    09/21/2016 11:36:34 AM PDT · by Sean_Anthony · 66 replies
    Canada Free Press ^ | 09/21/16 | Robert Laurie
    Outspending Trump 53:1 Prior to September, Hillary had already tried everything she could think of. She introduced herself, she re-introduced herself, she had a soft reboot, she re-re-introduced herself, and she still hadn’t managed to seal the deal with the American people. That meant there was only one thing left to do. When you’re a trainwreck candidate that no one wanted in the first place, you have no choice but to enact “The Jeb! Doctrine.” Hillary decided that cash would be enough to make you forget about the health concerns, the bad plans, her own achievement-free record, and the fact...
  • Nate Silver: Trump Improving In Ohio, Hillary Slipping

    09/05/2016 4:35:16 PM PDT · by WilliamIII · 52 replies
    Daily Caller ^ | Sep 5 16 | Daily Caller
    Statistics site 538 adjusted its swing state forecast for Ohio Monday, and the results are looking better for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Trump overcame a 5 point deficit mid-August to lead Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by three points in the state, according to the latest Ipsos poll published in September. Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/05/nate-silver-trump-improving-in-ohio-hillary-slipping/#ixzz4JQZrW0e1
  • Nate Silver: Trump would likely win if election were held today

    07/25/2016 10:51:56 AM PDT · by ifinnegan · 7 replies
    The Hill ^ | 7-25-16 | Mark Hensch
    Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would be favored to win if the general election occurred today. If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term: https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/HUTQMaVrBx — FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016
  • NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today

    07/25/2016 7:46:45 AM PDT · by MaxistheBest · 30 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 07/25/2016 | Allan Smith
    If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win. That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight. In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday. Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285...
  • There's a High Probability Nate Silver Is Wrong Again About Donald Trump

    06/29/2016 1:13:56 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 27 replies
    Rush Limbaugh.com ^ | June 29, 2016 | Rush Limbaugh
    BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: If I've had one person send it to me I've had five people send me this idea that Nate Silver is out predicting that Trump doesn't have a chance to win the presidency. Have you seen this, Snerdley? (interruption) Well, yeah. Let me tell you something: Nate Silver used to be a god in the New York Times, and he's not a pollster. He's a renowned pollster analyst. Meaning he found algorithms and software programs and bots and all kinds of things to analyze all the data in all the polls. And what he would do is...
  • Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton 79% chance of winning presidency; Trump only 20%

    06/29/2016 12:14:30 PM PDT · by detective · 111 replies
    Daily News ^ | June 29, 2016 | Jason Silverstein
    Nate Silver has spoken: Hillary Clinton will be the next President. The famed political pollster — whose past presidential predictions have been freakishly accurate — said Wednesday he gives the presumptive Democratic candidate a 79% chance of winning the White House come November. Her loud-mouthed Republican rival, Donald Trump, has only a 20% chance of winning, Silver said. “We're kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she's taking a 7-point, maybe 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver, founder of the political analysis website FiveThirtyEight, said on “Good Morning America.”
  • Nate Silver: 79 percent chance Clinton wins

    06/29/2016 10:05:44 AM PDT · by orchestra · 67 replies
    Politico ^ | 6/29/2016 | Nolan D. McCaskill
    Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday. FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but...
  • Of Course Trump Can Win (538.com)

    05/31/2016 2:25:28 PM PDT · by goldstategop · 22 replies
    538.com ^ | 05/31/2016 | 538.com
    natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I’m not ready to accept yet that we’ll have a whole new map this time around. There will probably be some differences, yes. But my prior is that we’ll still have mostly the same swing states as last time, and I haven’t seen persuasive enough evidence yet to convince me otherwise. Here’s why: These polls are showing huge, enormous numbers of undecided voters. In that Monmouth poll of New Jersey, for instance, it’s Clinton 38 percent and Trump 34 percent, leaving 28 percent undecided, voting third party or saying they’ll sit out the general...
  • How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

    05/18/2016 6:15:16 AM PDT · by TaxPayer2000 · 39 replies
    fivethirtyeight.com ^ | May 18, 2016 | Nate Silver
    Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.~~~SNIP ~~~1. Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem. 2. Trump’s nomination is just one event, and that makes it hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic forecast. 3. The historical evidence clearly suggested that Trump was an underdog, but the sample size probably wasn’t large enough to assign him quite so low a probability of winning. 4. Trump’s nomination is potentially a point in favor of “polls-only” as opposed to “fundamentals” models. 5. There’s a...
  • NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong'

    05/05/2016 8:50:19 AM PDT · by GilGil · 48 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 5/5/2016 | Dan Turkel
    In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm down" about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination. Two months later, he wrote that the media should "stop freaking out about Donald Trump's polls" and that Trump's odds were "higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent." Six months after that, after Ted Cruz had dropped out of the race but before John Kasich had done so, Silver wrote: "Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination."
  • Nate Silver officially loses it, predicts Zuckerberg-Petraeus ticket

    04/26/2016 5:16:30 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 30 replies
    Fire Andrea Mitchell ^ | April 25, 2016
    Nate Silver was a once respected pollster. His polls were accurate a lot of the time, though they always had a left wing bias. Now, Silver has completely lost it, predicting a Mark Zuckerberg-David Petraeus ticket. Not only does Silver predict such a ridiculous idea as a presidential ticket, he also claims that Zuckerberg-Petaeus would win 428 Electoral College votes.(GRPHIC-AT-LINK)Earth to Nate Silver, Mark Zuckerberg isn’t even 35 years old yet and therefore not eligible to be President of the United States. What dope Nate Silver is smoking, I’d like to get my hands on some. This guy has completely...
  • Facebook is spending millions to keep Mark Zuckerberg alive

    04/28/2016 10:28:34 AM PDT · by GrandJediMasterYoda · 19 replies
    Ny Post ^ | 4/28/16 | Post staff
    Facebook is spending millions to keep Mark Zuckerberg alive At Facebook, security is a top priority — that is, security for CEO Mark Zuckerberg. The social-networking giant spent more than $5 million last year on bodyguards and other measures to protect Zuckerberg and his growing family, according to a regulatory filing. The cost to protect Zuckerberg topped $6.2 million in 2014, up from $3.2 million the previous year, according to the filing. In all, the company has shelled out $14.5 million on security for the CEO over the past three years. Apparently, Zuckerberg presents a much bigger target than rival...
  • Trump’s Odds of Winning Way Better than Nate Silver Believes

    04/16/2016 10:10:31 PM PDT · by entropy12 · 16 replies
    mishtalk.com ^ | April 14, 2016 | mishgea
    The Republican nomination is going to be close. Nate Silver has Trump coming up short. I have Trump winning by a slim margin. I am looking at some states where I likely underestimated Trump’s delegate count more than enough to matter. Connecticut A new Connecticut Poll came out on April 10-11. That’s just one poll, but it’s significant. Moreover, if Trump wins big in New York on Tuesday, April 19, momentum will likely carry over for the Connecticut primary a week later. According to Green Papers, Connecticut awards 13 at-large delegates in a winner-take most fashion. If someone gets over...
  • NATE SILVER: Donald Trump's chances of locking up the nomination appear to be dwindling

    04/14/2016 10:50:48 AM PDT · by John W · 60 replies
    businessinsider.com ^ | April 13, 2016 | Allan Smith
    Donald Trump's path to clinching the Republican nomination ahead of the party's July convention is looking increasingly improbable, according to FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver. Silver's latest delegate projection for Trump showed him finishing at 1,155 delegates — 82 short of the 1,237 needed to secure the GOP bid heading into the convention. That number came from Silver's "deterministic" model — which looked at the most likely outcome for Trump in each state. In Silver's prior projection, Trump picked up 1,208 delegates, still short of the needed number but conceivably an easier difference to overcome. That projection came before...
  • Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working

    04/23/2016 1:56:40 PM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 46 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | April 23, 2016 | Nate Silver
    Donald Trump has had a good run of numbers lately. While his victory in New York this week was expected, he got 60 percent of the vote, more than the roughly 55 percent projected by the polls. He appears headed for victories in Maryland and Pennsylvania, which vote on Tuesday. He’s gained ground in California and is narrowly ahead of Ted Cruz in the first public polls of Indiana. He’s added about 2 percentage points over the past two weeks in our national polling average. But with Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates on such a knife’s edge, every percentage point...
  • A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary

    04/13/2016 7:11:05 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 55 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | April 13, 2016 | Nate Silver
    It could all come down to 53 micro-primaries in California. Three weeks ago, when we last took a detailed look at Donald Trump’s quest to win 1,237 delegates, his path looked rocky but endurable. The panel of eight experts FiveThirtyEight assembled projected Trump to wind up with 1,208 by the time California and four other states finished counting their votes on June 7, a number that would leave him tantalizingly close to clinching the Republican presidential nomination — probably close enough that he’d be able to get over the hump by persuading some uncommitted delegates to come his way before...
  • Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote

    04/07/2016 9:19:22 PM PDT · by Leto · 67 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 4-7-16 | Nate Silver
    Donald Trump has 39 percent of the vote in our Pennsylvania polling average, 37 percent in California, and 39 percent in Maryland. If this were February or early March, that would leave him without much to worry about. Even if Trump picked up zero undecided voters, he’d be pretty much guaranteed a win with the rest of the vote divided between a half-dozen opponents. But those days are over. In Wisconsin on Tuesday, Trump had 35 percent of the vote — the same share that allowed him to win New Hampshire easily in February, and a larger percentage than he...
  • Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention

    04/06/2016 10:03:41 AM PDT · by justlittleoleme · 98 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 4/6/16 | Nate Silver
    It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington. But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen...
  • Sanders beats Clinton in Michigan Dem Primary, Fox News Projects

    03/08/2016 8:37:14 PM PST · by Steelfish · 35 replies
    FoxNews ^ | March 8, 2016
    Sanders beats Clinton in Michigan Dem primary, Fox News projects Published March 08, 2016 Fox News projects that Bernie Sanders will beat Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Democratic primary, marking a huge upset victory for the Vermont senator. This is the ninth and largest state that Sanders has won so far in the Democratic presidential campaign.
  • Bernie Sanders beats Hillary Clinton in stunning Michigan primary upset

    03/08/2016 8:55:31 PM PST · by tcrlaf · 89 replies
    UK GUARDIAN ^ | 3-8-2016 | Dan Roberts in Miami and Ben Jacobs and Lauren Gambino in Detroit
    Bernie Sanders pulled off his biggest win of the Democratic presidential race on Tuesday, defeating Hillary Clinton in the Michigan primary on a night which also confirmed strong anti-establishment support for Donald Trump in the battle for the Republican nomination. In an industrial state hit hard by the decline of manufacturing, the Vermont senator’s consistent opposition to free trade deals appears to have been a decisive factor, but he also showed signs of weakening Clinton’s dominance among African American voters. The shock victory – by a margin of around 3 percentage points when his win was first projected by Associated...
  • 538 Analyst Eats 'Humble Pie' Over Bernie Sanders Win in Michigan

    03/09/2016 7:28:12 AM PST · by PJ-Comix · 6 replies
    NewsBusters ^ | March 9, 2016 | P.J. Gladnick
    According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary. ---FiveThirtyEight, 3:43 PM EST, March 8, 2016. Oops! Or rather, a massive OOPS!!! The FiveThirtyEight blog is considered to be the gold (or rather silver since its founder is Nate Silver) standard in election predictions. So when it is so wildly off the mark as happened last night as Bernie Sanders pulled off an astounding primary victory upset in Michigan over Hillary Clinton, it is definitely quite notable. So how to excuse this error? Actually, credit must go to 538 analyst Harry Enten who...
  • Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

    02/21/2016 6:17:03 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 81 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | February 21, 2016 | Nate Silver
    If you think the arguments between the Republican candidates have been bad, well, you ain't seen nothing yet. Pundits, reporters and political analysts are going to really have at it. Two competing theories about the Republican race are about to come to a head, and both of them can claim a victory of sorts after South Carolina. The first theory is simple. It can be summarized in one word: Trump! The more detailed version would argue the following: * Trump has easily won two of the first three states. * Trump is ahead in the polls in pretty much every...
  • Donald Trump’s New Hampshire Win Means These Media Members Are Winners & Losers

    02/09/2016 10:16:55 PM PST · by Helicondelta · 39 replies
    mediaite.com ^ | February 8
    First, here are the biggest "losers." Nate Silver. Back in November, this liberal media darling and alleged prediction guru told the world that Trump had no real chance at the GOP nomination and that his poll numbers were nothing to be concerned about because they were likely to fade before any votes were cast. ... Frank Luntz. Luntz unequivocally declared that Trump was dead, gone and finished. Trump's poll numbers only got better from there. ... Rich Lowry & National Review. Lowry deserves to be singled out for his hilariously inaccurate and inappropriate analysis that Carly Fiorina had surgically removed...
  • NATE SILVER: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses (Odds of winning: Trump 54%-Cruz 33%)

    02/01/2016 2:27:33 PM PST · by GilGil · 62 replies
    Yahoo.com ^ | 2/1/2016 | Andy Kiersz
    FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress. Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and...
  • Nate Silver: CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus

    01/21/2016 3:05:15 PM PST · by TBBT · 27 replies
    Twitter ^ | 1/21/16 | Nate Silver
    A lot of differences in these polls are based on how tightly polls are screening voters. Looser screens help Bernie & Trump. For instance, the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012. There are sometimes reasons to prefer looser screens. It can be hard to predict who will vote. Also, self-selection in who responds to poll.
  • Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters

    01/19/2016 9:51:54 AM PST · by fifedom · 72 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | Jan 18, 2016 | Nate Silver
    Contra Rupert Murdoch's assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats. Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)
  • Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters

    01/18/2016 1:49:16 PM PST · by Citizen Zed · 64 replies
    fivethirtyeight.com ^ | 1-18-2016 | NATE SILVER
    We've got an unpopular set of presidential candidates this year - Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party with a net-positive favorability rating - but Trump is the most unpopular of all. His favorability rating is 33 percent, as compared with an unfavorable rating of 58 percent, for a net rating of -25 percentage points. By comparison Hillary Clinton, whose favorability ratings are notoriously poor, has a 42 percent favorable rating against a 50 percent unfavorable rating, for a net of -8 points. Those are bad numbers, but nowhere near as bad as Trump's. This is not just...
  • 538 projects Cruz, Clinton to win Iowa: The site also gives Trump a clear edge in New Hampshire

    01/17/2016 5:03:40 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    The Politico ^ | January 17, 2016 | Kristen East
    Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show. Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance of winning Feb. 1. A look at just state polls shows a much closer race between Trump and Cruz, giving the business magnate a better chance of winning by 2 percentage points, 44 percent to Cruz's 42 percent.....
  • Nate Silver: No, the Democrats don’t have a lock on an Electoral College majority

    05/12/2015 7:15:04 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 52 replies
    Hot Air ^ | May 12, 2015 | Noah Rothman
    Like the proverbial general waging the last war, America’s pundit class has dug in around a Maginot Line of conventional wisdom erected around President Barack Obama’s electoral coalition in preparation for the next engagement. In a May article for Politico Magazine, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics crew took an admittedly early look at the electoral map ahead of the 2016 contest and came up with some disappointing conclusions for Republicans. While it’s true that it’s too early to make any concrete assumptions about how the race for the White House will develop, it’s fair to note that the...
  • Nate Silver: 80% chance Super Bowl will be won by 1 of these 5 teams

    12/03/2015 9:40:14 PM PST · by NKP_Vet · 45 replies
    http://finance.yahoo.com ^ | December 3, 2015 | Cork Gaines
    After 12 weeks of the NFL season, the New England Patriots are still the heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl. Using Nate Silver's "2015 NFL Predictions," a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders. Heading into Week 13, the New England Patriots are still the favorite with a 28% chance to win the Super Bowl, down from 33% a week ago. The Carolina Panthers (20%) are the favorite in the NFC. In fact, according...
  • Dear Nate Silver: The Media (and the GOP) Should Be ‘Freaking Out’ About Trump’s Poll Numbers

    11/25/2015 7:37:17 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 31 replies
    Mediaite ^ | 11/25/2015 | John Ziegler
    Liberal Media darling and alleged prediction guru Nate Silver says that everyone in the media should just calm down and stop "freaking out" about Donald Trump's amazing poll numbers. He insists that almost no voters have actually made up their mind yet and that there is still only a minuscule chance of Trump stealing the GOP nomination and changing our politics forever (not to mention also virtually insuring the election of Hillary Clinton). Silver is mostly wrong about Trump's chances of winning the nomination, but more importantly he discounts the very real impact that Trump will have on the ultimate...
  • Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

    11/23/2015 5:47:10 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 19 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | November 23, 2015 | Nate Silver
    Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will play into Trump’s hands, or that Republicans really might be in disarray. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high. Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said...
  • Coming to grips with a President Trump

    11/22/2015 6:13:22 PM PST · by BlackFemaleArmyCaptain · 31 replies
    Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, the dream site for statistics nerds, crystallized the bewilderment of the analyst class in trying to process the ongoing triumph of Donald Trump. "About 25 percent of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25 percent of that 25 percent in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?" Silver tweeted, drawing more than 1,000 retweets and likes apiece. The answer, of course, is twofold. First, that fourth-of-a-fourth is exactly the sort that often can wield such outsized influence in American presidential primary politics. Second, and even more to the point, is...
  • Apparently Nate Silver Has Just Discovered The GOPe Splitter Strategy….

    11/07/2015 8:42:52 AM PST · by cotton1706 · 33 replies
    theconservativetreehouse.com ^ | 11/7/15 | Sundance
    We have exhaustively outlined the GOPe road map to insure the nomination of Jeb Bush for the Republican Presidential Candidate in 2016. While the road map is rather complex, it essentially boils down to a strategy of small accumulated delegate pickups using 15-20% electoral support. GOP candidates 3 ADVERTISEMENT Candidates George Pataki and Jim Gilmore have already been disqualified from the Alabama Primary, yet they remain in the race. Only a handful of candidates (Bush, Trump, Cruz and to a lesser extent Rubio & Fiorina) have efforts underway to qualify for ballot placement in all of the states with primary...
  • Nate Silver: Trump, Carson Have About 5% Chance Of Winning Gop Nomination

    09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT · by jimbo123 · 172 replies
    Breitbart ^ | 9/15/15 | IAN HANCHETT
    Fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver said that GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson have a “maybe about 5%” chance of winning the nomination on Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360.” Silver put Trump’s and Carson’s chances of winning the nomination at “maybe about 5% each, somewhere around there.” Silver explained, “there are a of couple things to think about. One is that if you look back at history, you’ve never seen candidates like Donald Trump certainly, or Ben Carson win a party nomination, and secondly, if you look at the polling a lot of times, a candidate leading the...
  • Why 'Has Trump peaked?' is Exactly the Wrong Question

    08/17/2015 6:50:15 AM PDT · by lifeofgrace · 14 replies
    sgberman.com ^ | 8/15/15 | Steve Berman
    Everybody’s stressing and speculating on whether Donald Trump has peaked.  Jonah Goldberg expresses hope that he has, writing “It’s obviously too soon to tell for sure, but I think we’ve reached Peak Trump.”  Neil Stevens agrees with the “too soon to tell” but isn’t so sure there won’t be more up in Trump, citing one RCP poll showing a decline as insufficient data. But the point is: who cares if The Donald has peaked? I usually don’t rely on Nate Silver’s analysis for much other than bashing Republicans, but on Trump, FiveThirtyEight might be right. Media: Trump's doing great! Nerds: No. Those polls don't mean what you...