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Keyword: natesilver

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  • Nate Silver Explains How MSM Helped Hillary Lose Election

    02/07/2017 7:25:30 PM PST · by PJ-Comix · 56 replies
    NewsBusters ^ | February 7, 2017 | P.J. Gladnick
    Sometimes your best friends can inadvertently become your worst enemies. Such was the case of Hillary Clinton and the mainstream media according to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. Most observant people knew that the MSM was all in for Hillary this past election to the extent of acting like cheerleaders for her. So instead of cautioning Hillary when Donald Trump made exactly the right moves to win the necessary electoral votes for victory, they instead mocked him for his ignorance of political campaigning. As a result this gave the Hillary campaign a false sense of security when they should have campaigned...
  • Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would be president if not for Comey

    12/11/2016 11:00:36 AM PST · by kevcol · 88 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | December 11, 2016 | Gabby Morrongiello
    Statistics expert Nate Silver claims defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would "almost certainly" have made it to the Oval Office if the election had been held before FBI Director James Comey announced the reopening of the agency's investigation into her private email practices. "Comey had a large, measurable impact on the race," wrote Silver, who ran FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, in a series of tweets Sunday morning.
  • What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes

    11/09/2016 6:39:58 PM PST · by MUDDOG · 72 replies
    Fivethirtyeight ^ | 11-9-2016 | Nate Silver
    Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s a sea of red for President-elect Donald Trump. He earned 306 electoral votes and became the first Republican since 1988 to win Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Silver sold em fools gold

    Hillary was at 76% odds of winning according to this buffoon today... Effing idiot. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  • Nate Silver: 2016 Polls Less Reliable Than Prior Years

    Many 2016 polls may prove incorrect because so many Americans are undecided or else say they’re backing third parties, says Nate Silver, founder of the fivethirtyeight.com polling firm. “Undecideds are MUCH higher than normal,” Silver said in a Tuesday morning tweet. “So risk of a polling error — in either direction — is higher than usual.” One out of eight voters, or 12.5 percent, are either undecided or declaring support for other candidates during the last few days of the election. That is up from one out of 32 voters in 2012, one out of 27 voters in 2004 and...
  • NATE SILVER PREDICTS TRUMP WINS FLORIDA

    11/06/2016 3:16:07 PM PST · by Simon Foxx · 71 replies
    DAILY CALLER ^ | 11/6/2016 | PHILLIP STUCKY
    Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.
  • Nate Silver: Polls showing Clinton up 5 points not backed by data

    11/06/2016 12:31:59 PM PST · by SoFloFreeper · 16 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 11/6/16 | Daniel Chaitin
    For supporters of Donald Trump who are discouraged by the latest slate of polls showing Hillary Clinton up 5 percent just days before Election Day, polling guru Nate Silver had some reassuring words Sunday morning. "Some people are saying Clinton's up 5-6 nationally. That's just not a good representation of what the data says," Silver tweeted. But, he admitted, Clinton does have a lead.
  • Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions about Donald Trump are Terrifying

    11/04/2016 2:09:10 PM PDT · by mathprof · 16 replies
    Paleofuture ^ | 11/4/2016 | Matt Novak
    Nobody knows what the future holds. That’s what makes it so interesting—and often terrifying. But it’s become increasingly clear that the person who knows the least about the future is the one that everybody has been turning to for answers about the future of American politics: Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver emerged as Our National Oracle™ after successfully predicting many of the results in the 2008 election. But as Silver’s satirical counterpart, Carl Diggler, has proven time and again, you may as well just be going with gut instinct based on Silver’s terrible track record since 2008.
  • The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does

    11/02/2016 10:12:17 PM PDT · by justlittleoleme · 40 replies
    Five Thirty Eight ^ | Oct 30, 2016 at 7:53 AM | Rob Arthur
    It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.) But if Chicago is going to have any chance of a Series win, they’ll have to awaken their bats in Sunday’s game.
  • 538 Nate has Trump moving up now almost 30% chance of winning.

    11/01/2016 3:18:13 PM PDT · by IVAXMAN · 50 replies
    fivethirtyeight.com ^ | 11/1/2016 | Nate Silver
    Nate Silver has Trump's odds of winning at 29%. Been slowly climbing all day. He has been wrong about Trump every time but the new polls are making him move.
  • US election 2016: statistician Nate Silver's big Donald Trump mistake

    10/30/2016 6:18:43 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 28 replies
    The Sydney | October 31, 2016 | Margaret Sullivan
    Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-2016-statistician-nate-silvers-big-donald-trump-mistake-20161030-gseaye.html
  • Leaked Monmouth U. polling memo: Democrats ‘despondent’; Hillary..., seen as a ‘lying harpy’

    The Florida geography is also working against us. Hillary has 53+ Field Offices and they’re empty of volunteers. This lack of enthusiasm is showing up in the voting responses and it’s killing us. The “cell phones” rationale will only hold out for so long.
  • Nate Silver's 538: Trump would win if election were held today

    09/26/2016 1:28:36 PM PDT · by Sean_Anthony · 11 replies
    Canada Free Press ^ | 09/26/16 | Robert Laurie
    Dunh-dunh-duuuun Last week, we discussed the fact that Hillary’s odds of victory were collapsing - despite massively outspending her opponent. At the time, her chances of taking the White House had fallen to just over 53%. The data came to us via Nate Silver’s 538 site. Long a favorite among Democrats, Silver is a statistician who rose to national prominence during the 2008 presidential race, when he correctly predicted 49 of 50 state outcomes. In 2012, he went 50 for 50. A month ago, he gave Hillary Clinton a 96% chance of victory. How times have changed:
  • Who will win the Presidency?

    09/26/2016 8:23:42 AM PDT · by ConservativeDude · 30 replies
    fivethirtyeight blog ^ | September 26, 2016 | Nate Silver, et al
    Clinton chance of winning: 51.8% Trump chance of winning: 48.2%
  • Nate Silver: Trump closing in, Clinton lead 'a lot less safe' than Obama's in 2012

    09/25/2016 2:51:05 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | September 25, 2016 | Paige Winfield Cunningham
    (TWEET-AT-LINK) A model from election-forecasting whiz Nate Silver shows Donald Trump once again closing in on Hillary Clinton, as he did right after the party conventions in July, and warned that Clinton's lead is "a lot less safe" than President Obama's lead in the polls in 2012. Silver's FiveThirtyEight website currently gives Clinton a 58.1 percent chance and Trump a 41.9 percent chance of becoming president. That's not the closest the two candidates have been, as Silver's widely-respected projection showed them neck-and-neck on July 30. Clinton opened a wider lead over Trump in August in Silver's model, but Trump has...
  • Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

    09/23/2016 12:28:49 PM PDT · by nhwingut · 18 replies
    Five Thirty Eight ^ | 09/22/2016 | Harry Enton
    Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week. Our polls-only forecast gives her a 59 percent chance of beating Donald Trump, while our polls-plus model shows her with a 58 percent chance. Some interested parties are pointing to individual polls as evidence of a Clinton rebound, but a closer look at all the data released over the past three days suggests that those people are stretching.
  • Nate Silver: Despite massively outspending Trump, Clinton's odds of victory collapsing

    09/21/2016 11:36:34 AM PDT · by Sean_Anthony · 66 replies
    Canada Free Press ^ | 09/21/16 | Robert Laurie
    Outspending Trump 53:1 Prior to September, Hillary had already tried everything she could think of. She introduced herself, she re-introduced herself, she had a soft reboot, she re-re-introduced herself, and she still hadn’t managed to seal the deal with the American people. That meant there was only one thing left to do. When you’re a trainwreck candidate that no one wanted in the first place, you have no choice but to enact “The Jeb! Doctrine.” Hillary decided that cash would be enough to make you forget about the health concerns, the bad plans, her own achievement-free record, and the fact...
  • Nate Silver: Trump Improving In Ohio, Hillary Slipping

    09/05/2016 4:35:16 PM PDT · by WilliamIII · 52 replies
    Daily Caller ^ | Sep 5 16 | Daily Caller
    Statistics site 538 adjusted its swing state forecast for Ohio Monday, and the results are looking better for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Trump overcame a 5 point deficit mid-August to lead Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by three points in the state, according to the latest Ipsos poll published in September. Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/05/nate-silver-trump-improving-in-ohio-hillary-slipping/#ixzz4JQZrW0e1
  • Nate Silver: Trump would likely win if election were held today

    07/25/2016 10:51:56 AM PDT · by ifinnegan · 7 replies
    The Hill ^ | 7-25-16 | Mark Hensch
    Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would be favored to win if the general election occurred today. If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term: https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/HUTQMaVrBx — FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016
  • NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today

    07/25/2016 7:46:45 AM PDT · by MaxistheBest · 30 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 07/25/2016 | Allan Smith
    If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win. That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight. In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday. Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285...