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Nate Silver just covered his A**
Twitter ^ | 11/04/12 | Tom Riker

Posted on 11/04/2012 10:56:56 AM PST by Tom Riker

We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1.

30 percent IF its R+1? really? so you basically drop 68 points and a romney win if the only thing changes is O goes from tie turnout to plus r 1?

Pew, Gallup and Rassmussen show turnout at R + 1-3 points...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: election; natesilver; obama; romney

1 posted on 11/04/2012 10:57:07 AM PST by Tom Riker
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To: Tom Riker

Nate Silver IS an ass . . . So what? He’s wearing a burka now?


2 posted on 11/04/2012 10:59:47 AM PST by Juan Medén
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To: Tom Riker
NSilver is NOT trying to analyze, comment, or forecast...

With all his BS....
He is trying to INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME of the election...

Keep your eye on the ball...

3 posted on 11/04/2012 11:02:22 AM PST by Wings-n-Wind (The main things are the plain things!)
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To: Tom Riker

He doesn’t want to be made a fool of. If he’s wrong, he can still say the coming Romney landslide wasn’t a complete surprise to him.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 11:02:24 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Tom Riker

Silver is a fraud. See my other thread below. Obama was feeding him internals in 08.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 11:03:31 AM PST by TigerClaws
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To: Tom Riker

This clown was the featured person in today’s CBS Sunday Morning cover story. Farcical.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 11:04:00 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: Tom Riker

Libs already know Obama has lost..they will come out with this shocked face after wards and blame everything on racism. Libs have known for MONTHS, especially after the 1st Debate, that Obama was finished..its kind of like what McCain did in 2008, he knew that he lost but he still came out with the phony smile like everything was OK, its the same thing the libs are doing here. Obama already has his mansion purchased in Hawaii for 35 million the deal is done


7 posted on 11/04/2012 11:04:33 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Tom Riker

“30 percent IF its R+1? really? so you basically drop 68 points and a romney win if the only thing changes is O goes from tie turnout to plus r 1?”

LOL!!

(This is even funnier than the 999,900-under-a-Million Puppet (because they couldn’t use the million-dollar-making trademark “Muppet”) March.)


8 posted on 11/04/2012 11:09:42 AM PST by Factfinder
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To: Tom Riker
Lol! The liberals must be going apoplectic, they have based everything on the great Nate Silver. And at the 11th hour he just essentially said to them, “Uhhm guys...maybe there is something you should know....that 80% prediction...it only works if turnout for Obama is the same as 2008, anything short of that and it's Romney in a walk...” THAT IS WHAT I'VE BEEN TRYING TO TELL THEM FOR THE LAST MONTH, NATE SILVER IS USING THE 2008 TURNOUT MODEL!
9 posted on 11/04/2012 11:15:05 AM PST by apillar
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To: Sarah Barracuda

10 posted on 11/04/2012 11:15:21 AM PST by isthisnickcool (Sharia? No thanks!)
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To: Tom Riker

Who is Nate Silver, anyway?


11 posted on 11/04/2012 11:19:34 AM PST by Eva
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To: Wings-n-Wind

People like him is what will sink the polling industry.

It’s already bad enough that their profession is a total scam, but they at least tried to keep a professional face on it. And when they are wrong, they can just write a nice commentary extolling how it was just a matter of them forgetting to move the decimal here or mis-reading the Interquartile range there.

People like Silver are taking the mask off and exposing the seedy nature of it as being nothing more than number fudging and partisan positioning to influence votes.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 11:22:04 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: Tom Riker

The R+1 is Romney +1, not Republican +1.

He’s saying Obama has a 30 percent chance of winning the EC even if Romney wins the popular vote by 1 point.

(Not saying I agree with him, only explaining what he’s saying.)


13 posted on 11/04/2012 11:22:18 AM PST by nkronos
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To: Eva
A baseball statistician whose turned to political predictions.

You can read his stuff here or check out his Wikipedia entry.

He comes across as a creepy whiz kid.

14 posted on 11/04/2012 11:29:56 AM PST by x
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To: Tom Riker
He gives the probabilities as 98% at O+1, and 30% at R+1, a swing of 2 points. That's a darned narrow (proposed) distribution, to swing that far with that small a turnout move.

Anyway, just nitpicking your observation that the 68% swing was on a 1 point difference in turnout.

15 posted on 11/04/2012 11:30:31 AM PST by Cboldt
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To: isthisnickcool

LOL I love this site..you guys come up with these photos, I have no idea where you get them from but they are always SPOT ON


16 posted on 11/04/2012 11:31:18 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: apillar

Yea he’s probably afraid he will get swept away in the race riots or that the left will want his head for serving them hopamine laced koolaid for the last month.
If Rove or Morris pulled this crap today we would be going “WTH?”.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 11:32:01 AM PST by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: VanDeKoik

He is not a pollster. What are you talking about?


18 posted on 11/04/2012 11:32:48 AM PST by impimp
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Nate is an excellent statistician. But his problem is the polls he is using as an input into his model. If a poll is wrong, that makes the entire model suspect. This is the difference between his baseball work, and politics. In baseball, we know the players data (hits, RBI, HR, etc) to put into the model. In baseball, it would be like polling all the other coaches/players. How many RBI’s do you think Jay Bruce is going to hit this year? That is the fault with his polling model.

And DUH.... if the turnout swings D+3 to R+1, even I can predict it will greatly increase one parties chances.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 11:36:42 AM PST by gswilder
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To: impimp

Ok...he plays with the stuff pollsters churn out and then assembles it into some franken-poll that is supposed to predict election outcomes.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 11:47:39 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: gswilder

And if Nate is proved wrong, he will blame the polls. ‘Hey I was just working with what I had and based on that I had a 125% chance of Obama winning’. He gets all the credit for being right and none of the discredit for being wrong.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 11:49:15 AM PST by libh8er
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To: Tom Riker

This information is a huge admission on Nate Silver’s part. Up until now he has used cherry picked polls under the guise that his statistical analysis was sufficient to determine which polls are reliable. His analysis claimed he was smart enough to only rely on those polls which are reliable.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:44 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: Tom Riker
Let's be clear. Silver is a douche, and has received a ridiculous amount of praise for what is essentially a Monte Carlo statistical analysis of existing polls. He is "reporting" what anyone could report with an elementary understanding of statistical probabilities.

If Silver had been sitting next to me at Game 5 of the NLDS in DC, he would have told me the Nationals had a 96% probability of winning in the top of the fourth. He would have told me the Nationals STILL had an overwhelming edge in the bottom of the ninth with two out and two strikes.

The problem with everyone who takes Silver seriously is that he is merely spouting objective statistics based on polling data that is not validated and can never be, with respect to Tuesday's vote.

If the polls showing Obama winning are right, then Silver is right. If they are wrong, he is still "right". He is not an analyst, and he will be the first to throw the polls under the bus when he is "wrong". Silver's reports are liberal masturbation.

23 posted on 11/04/2012 12:13:49 PM PST by Mr. Bird
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To: Tom Riker

In reality, Nate Silver is probably just some guy who does his “analysis” in between World of Warcraft sessions while living in his mother’s basement.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 12:19:20 PM PST by Mitt Romney (Clear Eyes...Full Hearts...Can't Lose)
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To: Mr. Bird

Just when I thought I was over the game 5 catastrophe...


25 posted on 11/04/2012 1:00:23 PM PST by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: pgkdan

I apologize. I find that talking about it helps.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 2:13:49 PM PST by Mr. Bird
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