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Nate Silver Predicts GOP Holding 50-51 Senate Seats After 2014 Election
TPM ^ | July 15, 2013

Posted on 07/15/2013 3:19:14 PM PDT by SMGFan

Following former Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision not to run for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat this weekend, New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections.

(Excerpt) Read more at livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Montana
KEYWORDS: brianschweitzer; maxbaucus; montana; natesilver; newyorkslimes; newyorktimes
Hoing for the very best.
1 posted on 07/15/2013 3:19:14 PM PDT by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan

How did this guy do last election predicting the results?


2 posted on 07/15/2013 3:22:50 PM PDT by rawhide
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To: rawhide

He nailed it.


3 posted on 07/15/2013 3:24:08 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: SMGFan

I guess now we believe Silver’s prognostications...16 months before the elections? Wake me up in 15 months.


4 posted on 07/15/2013 3:24:22 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SMGFan

If the Republicans plan on winning the senate, they better start counting votes now.


5 posted on 07/15/2013 3:25:14 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (The reason we own guns is to protect ourselves from those wanting to take our guns from us.)
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To: saganite
So, he knew about the IRS suppress the GOP vote efforts beforehand?

He must be on the Journolist.

6 posted on 07/15/2013 3:25:34 PM PDT by Trailerpark Badass (There should be a whole lot more going on than throwing bleach, said one woman.)
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To: SMGFan

Thank God for the GOP.

LOL


7 posted on 07/15/2013 3:25:38 PM PDT by KOZ.
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To: BlueStateRightist

Yeah. Too early to reach any conclusions.

Our candidates haven’t even shared their thoughts on rape yet.

(smh)


8 posted on 07/15/2013 3:26:05 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SMGFan

If they’d insist on noisily following the ACA law and yelling how it was passed by 100% Democrat votes, they might get more.

Vote out all incumbents in every primary no matter what the party designation. Choose 3rd party where possible.


9 posted on 07/15/2013 3:27:01 PM PDT by wrencher
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To: SMGFan

There were some similar predictions for 2012.

Never underestimate the GOP’s capacity to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory.


10 posted on 07/15/2013 3:29:21 PM PDT by TomGuy (.)
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To: Trailerpark Badass
So, he knew about the IRS suppress the GOP vote efforts beforehand?

His predictions were based on averages of reliable poll results; those results were largely in line with the final poll results.

11 posted on 07/15/2013 3:34:49 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: BlueStateRightist

Nate Silver predicts Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl matchup
January 10, 2013 04:58 PM

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extra_points/2013/01/nate_silver_pre.html


12 posted on 07/15/2013 3:35:15 PM PDT by jimbo123
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To: SMGFan

I don’t.

I can’t think of a single reason at all to vote R.


13 posted on 07/15/2013 3:35:23 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: SMGFan

Good! Now we can relax.


14 posted on 07/15/2013 3:36:06 PM PDT by OwenKellogg (Fundamental transformation is destroying the USA.)
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To: Strategerist
those results were largely in line with the final poll results.

Which were largely in line with a government organized, tax-payer funded, suppress the GOP vote effort.

Got it. Thanks for the help!

15 posted on 07/15/2013 3:37:20 PM PDT by Trailerpark Badass (There should be a whole lot more going on than throwing bleach, said one woman.)
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To: rawhide
How did this guy do last election predicting the results?

How do you predict Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock.

16 posted on 07/15/2013 3:37:47 PM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: chris37

In the Senate, any Republican is better than any Democrat.

Also, Firing harry Reid would be sweet — especially after he invokes the Nuclear option and makes 51 votes the only threshold needed to pass a bill.

Imaging the Republicans tacking on all sorts of reasonable plans to the garbage bills that Obama must sign.

A lot of good can get done, or, a lot of bad can get prevented, even if you can’t stand the players.


17 posted on 07/15/2013 3:40:39 PM PDT by Andy from Chapel Hill
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To: SMGFan

Big deal if Republicans gain the majority as long as they are composed of the gutless liberals that they are now. Now if we had 51 Republicans like Ted Cruz in the Senate, that would be some good news. Unfortunately a lot of RINO’s aren’t even going to get a primary challenge in 2014.


18 posted on 07/15/2013 3:41:08 PM PDT by Reddon
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To: 0.E.O

Well, the GOP screwing over conservatives is pretty much a constant.


19 posted on 07/15/2013 3:42:50 PM PDT by Trailerpark Badass (There should be a whole lot more going on than throwing bleach, said one woman.)
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To: Andy from Chapel Hill

I not sure I can agree with that.

I have not seen any actual or practical difference between republicans and democrats in the senate, or anywhere else for that matter.

I’m not speaking of words, or speeches either, I mean actual differences in actions taken.


20 posted on 07/15/2013 3:47:35 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: Reddon

I agree. Who cares? The GOP is proving to be even more deceptive than the Dems in some ways. Rubio, Ryan, and Boehnor don’t even have the guts to shoot straight. At least the Dems are direct in their destructive plans.


21 posted on 07/15/2013 3:53:12 PM PDT by vmivol00 (I won't be reconstructed.)
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To: SMGFan
"Romney with over 300 EV's!"

...said just about everyone in 2012

22 posted on 07/15/2013 3:58:23 PM PDT by FightforFreedomCA (...and I don't care.)
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To: rawhide

“How did this guy do last election predicting the results?”

Nate Silver did a great job predicting the results. At least he doesn’t use liberal New Math despite working for the Old Gray Whore :-).

There was a Freeper (forget his name) that did a similar analysis and arrived at almost the same results as Silver (I think they were only a bit off in NC).


23 posted on 07/15/2013 4:03:12 PM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: FightforFreedomCA
...said just about everyone in 2012

Not Nate Silver.

24 posted on 07/15/2013 4:05:01 PM PDT by Lurking Libertarian (Non sub homine, sed sub Deo et lege)
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To: SMGFan

50 or 51 seats? Big deal.

In order to have any kind of assurance that the GOP would prevail on any given piece of legislation, it would require 65 or more seats.

Remember how they were bamboozled into “sharing” power when they were in the ‘majority’ by one seat?

And consider the number of RINOs already in the Senate, ready to play kissy-face with the DEMs on the other side of the aisle.

The GOP senators are too stupid, and lack the resolve to be able to handle being the majority party.


25 posted on 07/15/2013 4:45:25 PM PDT by DJ Frisat ((optional, printed after my name on post))
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To: saganite

He was fed internal polling data from the obama campaign.


26 posted on 07/15/2013 4:54:51 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: SMGFan

C’mon, Harry. Kill the filibuster. Then we can repeal Obamacare with 51 votes.


27 posted on 07/15/2013 5:05:37 PM PDT by sphinx
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To: LibLieSlayer

and it was accurate


28 posted on 07/15/2013 5:14:32 PM PDT by babble-on
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To: SMGFan
New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections.

And after all ballots are counted twice, three times or as many times as necessary, Democrats will hold 52 seats.

29 posted on 07/15/2013 5:15:57 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Army dad. And damned proud.)
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To: SMGFan

Need 60 without RINOs


30 posted on 07/15/2013 5:52:03 PM PDT by Old Yeller (Goodbye America. Glad the majority of my years were spent during the good days.)
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To: SMGFan

What difference does it make?


31 posted on 07/15/2013 5:52:07 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Who knew that one day professional wrestling would be less fake than professional journalism?)
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32 posted on 07/15/2013 8:18:05 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: SMGFan

51 with Senate Rule changes put in by RATS works just fine.


33 posted on 07/15/2013 9:01:57 PM PDT by Rodamala
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