Skip to comments.Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased (Silver: 83.7% Chance Obama Win)
Posted on 11/03/2012 6:56:11 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Nate Silver has just increased the size of the DUmmie security blanket.
Nate Silver of course is looking at a skewed turnout model.
The only way he can be right IS if there is a lopsided Democratic turnout advantage like in 2008.
Every one has been making that assumption!
I think its wrong and there is only one way to disprove it. If there is a huge GOP turnout on Tuesday.
license to riot
Silver doubles down on his foolishness...
Boy is this ever going to be fun on Wednesday morning!
This is one of the reasons why the polling industry needs to die.
Who the hell is this guy and why the hell do I keep seeing people keep referring to him?
Did you heard Michael Barrone taking a jab indirectly at him on Hannity’s show. Funny some guy, 35 years, old with a bad comb forward, is now the Oracle of politics. I don’t listen to any political “expert” who first voted in the Bush\Gore election. This guy better have a good day job, after Tuesday he may need to go into the witness protection program, seriously!
Wow! Nice graphics. I didn’t know you could graph bulls**t.
Oh Nate Nate Nate....whatever meds he is taking will need to be upped substantially on Nov 7th
Obama’s chances on InTrade are also spiking this morning - up to 67.7%, a new high since September.
Yup. I think at this point they are setting up the “we was robbed” story line. For them, Obama is the clear winner. It’s a foregone conclusion. No question about it. But ... when Romney comes in with 52% of the vote, they will “know” that Romney cheated, and they will immediately set fire to their own neighborhood, in order to teach me a lesson.
He just gave himself an out to be wrong....all the polls did not catch it.
They are going to use these statistically biased polls for rioting.
You nailed it.
that made me laugh out loud!
‘Romney’s Pennsylvania push not a mirage’
The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.
But there is a method to Mitt’s supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.
(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).
(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ‘04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.
The electorate has changed since 2008 in several states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Colorado. These states are all trending red and liberals may be in a for a very rude surprise on Wednesday morning.
He was very accurate in 2008...got 49 states right. That’s really all the history he has (before that he did sports stats). But was it really hard to predict in 2008? Near the end, McCain was giving up on Florida and other states. It wasn’t hard to call most states. This Silver guy is going to get forgotten, real quick, in a few days.
And yet Romney can attract crowds of 30,000 in Ohio, and Obama can’t even fill a Clevelan high school auditorium.
Nate Silver needs to prepare for an epic disappointment.
I am going to record MSNBC all of Tuesday evening. It will be great fun to watch their faces get longer and longer as the evening progresses.
Yes, I WILL enjoy going to work on Wednesday morning! Unless the electronic voting machines flip the election. PLEASE TELL ME I’M CRAZY! I WANT TO BE WRONG!
Nate is sort of correct, he just got the names backwards. The media polls that his tribe puts out ARE slanted and in order for Bonzo to win those polls have to be correct.
Which they may be. The special sauce is called “Massive Democrat Vote Fraud”.
But I’m not worried; political experts on here have told me that the Romney campaign knows EXACTLY what they are doing and they are 100% confident that all the marginal states are going to vote for Romney, it’s going to be an early night on Tuesday, we’ll take back the Senate, pick up 20 seats in the House, and Mitt may wind up with 350 electoral votes!
OK, so they’re as delusional as Nate Silver.
Silver seems to acknowledge that Romney may win the popular vote count, but claims that the Electoral College math favors Obama. I hope I’m being too pessimistic, but I think it will be difficult for Romney to win more that 257 electoral votes.
I wish Romney would swing through the state, Michigan, on his way to PA. The sentiment here in the school where I work (big union town outside Detroit) is going against 0bama. I know it could be done with a little push. I’m going to the Romney HQ today to see if they need any volunteer workers.
Mr. Silver reminds me of the one-hit wonders who parlay it into a career.
F. Lee Bailey made it big because of the Sam Sheppard case at the age of 32, and living off that one victory for an entire professional career.
Jeanne Dixon made thousands of predictions, and one about JFK getting assassinated moved her to the front of the pack of celebrity psychics, where she would spend her remaining days making bad predictions for the Star newspaper and spitting out astrology columns.
Zogby had a couple of good years in ‘96 and ‘00, but now is below average. Why is that? Did success go to his head? Not necessarily. Even statisticians are subject to variation in outcomes. The “good year” really could just be statistical variation, making him no better than anybody else. Or, their statistical model could be obsolete.
Barone might be over the hill, but probably isn’t; he has been around long enough to have learned how things work, including structural changes. Silver has not. He may be talented, but more likely he has put too much confidence in bad data. Or ... he may be happy to carry water because he has already had his one good year, and can play off of it no matter how many times he is wrong, like Dick Morris, Jeanne Dixon and F. Lee Bailey. He might want to be a hero of the left more than a truly respected statistician. If he’s wrong this time ... on to the next election. All will be forgiven by his pals.
Amazing, in that he has to ignore a lot of early voting data, which is much more robust than polling.
I remember that those who claimed to be unbiased were unanimously picking 0bama in 2008. In this one, some polls and some people’s careers (Morris, Rove, Barone, Intrade people, Silver...) will fade away forever if they pick wrongly. Never seen it like this before.
According to an analysis by EightThirtyFive, Nate Silver has a 92.78% chance of being wrong.
Romney could still lose. I don’t think Obama is a near inevitable as Silver suggests. I’m not sure I want to see the returns Tuesday night.
What kind of prognostication record does this character have?
You are right, he IS their security blanket. All the lib publications, DU, Huffpo, Mother Jones, etc, ALL of them are ignoring all other polls, ignoring the crowds at Romney events, ignoring the tiny crowds at Obama events - and placing ALL their hope in Nate Silver - and a few other guru type numbers crunchers.
This is who liberals are. They live in a bubble of academia, stats, and totally divorce themselves from the real world. They will be a BIG target in my book, which will go on sale NOV 8TH - describing how the media bubble has been wrong for four solid years, and that Obama’s loss was always in the cards.
I will poke a LOT of fun at Mr. Silver and his legions of clueless followers.
We had a mock election in our elementary school on Friday, probably a little more black kids than white, and 0bama won in a landslide. You could hear the cheering coming from all the classrooms all over. My 4th graders jumped out of their seats, fist pumps, shouting “Yeah! 0bama won! 0bama won!” After a minute it died down and I said to the class, you do realize he didn’t REALLY win, right? The election is on Tuesday. They kind of looked at me funny. But the point is, I do believe it will be HUGLY disappointing and there will be a LOT of anger expressed. Wednesday will be an interesting day. I look forward to our class discussion in Morning Meeting.
I see from the local news last night, the Detroit news polling shows prop 2 losing even in Detroit. I assume it will take the other pro union proposals down with it.
Should be real interesting to see how the public sector unionistas react to such a repudiation.
Nate Silver is the Bev Harris of 2012.
The exit polls will likely all show the kenyan winning all over.If that is the case and Romney wins, especially if the touch screen voting machines are rigged to the extent that early reports from 6 states might suggest, then look for an attempt to make their own Justice Roberts to decide the election.
Not rioting, though that will surely be included to influence Justice Roberts.
If Silver gets this one right he would become the definitive political oracle for liberals. He could probably be wrong for the next forty years and they’d still listen to him.
If he gets it wrong, it’s going to be fascinating to see how liberals process it.
The gay radical former daily kozer is mentally unhinged just like his employer !
Nate little model is a collection of skewed left wing media polls .
How brilliant and original !
This hoax has run
Her gay little scam into the deep blue sea .
Good riddance !
They won' be surprised and they will be ready withtheir lawyers to try to reverse.
If so, I'm in on this prediction -- all in!
Reports of “defective” touch-screen voting machines were coming from 6 states last I saw, probably more by now- Romney votes getting switched to kenyan. How many people make their choice and don’t even see what shows up on the screen?
It makes perfect sense for Silver to double down now. His downside is fixed — a reputational hit if Romney wins — but his upside is variable. If he increases his confidence interval and Obama wins, it looks like his model was the best and his reliance on it was warranted. If he decreases his confidence interval and Obama wins, then it looks like he was just lucky and was trying to hedge his bets.
Typical Sliver BS trying to cover all his bases !
This scam artist played the same game with the Walker recall .
He went around whispering to all the websites and networks that the polls have tightened playing his usual Gay radical psych ops games .
But he did not change his model !
He was hoping to hurt Walker turnout with his games !
CNN bought his BS and looked stupid in end but no one called this fraud out on his antics !
He is radical gay leftist from the daily Koz !
Romney will win the electoral college !
The Obama media played the same Ohio is going for Kerry by 5 pts in
2004 and Bush won .
Did any one in the media lose their job for peddling that bold faced lie !
Never will !
Hope you’re right!
Good luck, the vote count won’t even be close to contest.
Most reputable pundits put him over 300 easily. You're being way too pessimistic.
I hope I am being too pessimistic. I have taken renewed hope in Michael Barone’s latest analysis, which has Romney winning almost all of the battleground states.
Thus Obama's 2008 turnout was eclipsed by grassroots Tea Party counter-mobilization of 2010 that retook the US House for the GOP and lead to massive GOP gains down ballot. And this year has seen an historic increase in identification with the GOP and a massive party turnout effort that will offset or surpass Obama's turnout efforts.
Or, to put it another way, Obama and the Dems virtually maxed out their turnout in 2008, with only relatively minor gains possible in 2012. Meanwhile, the GOP has accrued major new political strength by adding independents and Democratic defectors, and GOP turnout is likely to reach a new level. With continuing high unemployment, the unpopularity of Obamacare, the corruption and waste of the stimulus spending program, and other political and policy failures by Obama, the net advantage is to the Republicans.
In sum, next Wednesday morning will make Nate Silver look like a one hit wonder who could not deliver after getting a three album deal from a major recording label. By the end of the year, he is likely to be looking for a new job, probably with a foundation or university. Shed no tears for Nate Silver though as that will be a better fate than several decades of playing his one hit over and over on the lounge and club circuit and on an oldies tour.