Skip to comments.Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased (Silver: 83.7% Chance Obama Win)
Posted on 11/03/2012 6:56:11 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Nate Silver has just increased the size of the DUmmie security blanket.
Nate Silver of course is looking at a skewed turnout model.
The only way he can be right IS if there is a lopsided Democratic turnout advantage like in 2008.
Every one has been making that assumption!
I think its wrong and there is only one way to disprove it. If there is a huge GOP turnout on Tuesday.
license to riot
Silver doubles down on his foolishness...
Boy is this ever going to be fun on Wednesday morning!
This is one of the reasons why the polling industry needs to die.
Who the hell is this guy and why the hell do I keep seeing people keep referring to him?
Did you heard Michael Barrone taking a jab indirectly at him on Hannity’s show. Funny some guy, 35 years, old with a bad comb forward, is now the Oracle of politics. I don’t listen to any political “expert” who first voted in the Bush\Gore election. This guy better have a good day job, after Tuesday he may need to go into the witness protection program, seriously!
Wow! Nice graphics. I didn’t know you could graph bulls**t.
Oh Nate Nate Nate....whatever meds he is taking will need to be upped substantially on Nov 7th
Obama’s chances on InTrade are also spiking this morning - up to 67.7%, a new high since September.
Yup. I think at this point they are setting up the “we was robbed” story line. For them, Obama is the clear winner. It’s a foregone conclusion. No question about it. But ... when Romney comes in with 52% of the vote, they will “know” that Romney cheated, and they will immediately set fire to their own neighborhood, in order to teach me a lesson.
He just gave himself an out to be wrong....all the polls did not catch it.
They are going to use these statistically biased polls for rioting.
You nailed it.
that made me laugh out loud!
‘Romney’s Pennsylvania push not a mirage’
The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.
But there is a method to Mitt’s supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.
(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).
(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ‘04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.
The electorate has changed since 2008 in several states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Colorado. These states are all trending red and liberals may be in a for a very rude surprise on Wednesday morning.
He was very accurate in 2008...got 49 states right. That’s really all the history he has (before that he did sports stats). But was it really hard to predict in 2008? Near the end, McCain was giving up on Florida and other states. It wasn’t hard to call most states. This Silver guy is going to get forgotten, real quick, in a few days.
And yet Romney can attract crowds of 30,000 in Ohio, and Obama can’t even fill a Clevelan high school auditorium.
Nate Silver needs to prepare for an epic disappointment.
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