Nate Silver has just increased the size of the DUmmie security blanket.
Nate Silver of course is looking at a skewed turnout model.
The only way he can be right IS if there is a lopsided Democratic turnout advantage like in 2008.
Every one has been making that assumption!
I think its wrong and there is only one way to disprove it. If there is a huge GOP turnout on Tuesday.
license to riot
Silver doubles down on his foolishness...
Boy is this ever going to be fun on Wednesday morning!
This is one of the reasons why the polling industry needs to die.
Who the hell is this guy and why the hell do I keep seeing people keep referring to him?
Did you heard Michael Barrone taking a jab indirectly at him on Hannity’s show. Funny some guy, 35 years, old with a bad comb forward, is now the Oracle of politics. I don’t listen to any political “expert” who first voted in the Bush\Gore election. This guy better have a good day job, after Tuesday he may need to go into the witness protection program, seriously!
Wow! Nice graphics. I didn’t know you could graph bulls**t.
Oh Nate Nate Nate....whatever meds he is taking will need to be upped substantially on Nov 7th
Obama’s chances on InTrade are also spiking this morning - up to 67.7%, a new high since September.
He just gave himself an out to be wrong....all the polls did not catch it.
They are going to use these statistically biased polls for rioting.
And yet Romney can attract crowds of 30,000 in Ohio, and Obama can’t even fill a Clevelan high school auditorium.
Nate Silver needs to prepare for an epic disappointment.
I am going to record MSNBC all of Tuesday evening. It will be great fun to watch their faces get longer and longer as the evening progresses.
Nate is sort of correct, he just got the names backwards. The media polls that his tribe puts out ARE slanted and in order for Bonzo to win those polls have to be correct.
Which they may be. The special sauce is called “Massive Democrat Vote Fraud”.
But I’m not worried; political experts on here have told me that the Romney campaign knows EXACTLY what they are doing and they are 100% confident that all the marginal states are going to vote for Romney, it’s going to be an early night on Tuesday, we’ll take back the Senate, pick up 20 seats in the House, and Mitt may wind up with 350 electoral votes!
OK, so they’re as delusional as Nate Silver.
Mr. Silver reminds me of the one-hit wonders who parlay it into a career.
F. Lee Bailey made it big because of the Sam Sheppard case at the age of 32, and living off that one victory for an entire professional career.
Jeanne Dixon made thousands of predictions, and one about JFK getting assassinated moved her to the front of the pack of celebrity psychics, where she would spend her remaining days making bad predictions for the Star newspaper and spitting out astrology columns.
Zogby had a couple of good years in ‘96 and ‘00, but now is below average. Why is that? Did success go to his head? Not necessarily. Even statisticians are subject to variation in outcomes. The “good year” really could just be statistical variation, making him no better than anybody else. Or, their statistical model could be obsolete.
Barone might be over the hill, but probably isn’t; he has been around long enough to have learned how things work, including structural changes. Silver has not. He may be talented, but more likely he has put too much confidence in bad data. Or ... he may be happy to carry water because he has already had his one good year, and can play off of it no matter how many times he is wrong, like Dick Morris, Jeanne Dixon and F. Lee Bailey. He might want to be a hero of the left more than a truly respected statistician. If he’s wrong this time ... on to the next election. All will be forgiven by his pals.
Amazing, in that he has to ignore a lot of early voting data, which is much more robust than polling.
According to an analysis by EightThirtyFive, Nate Silver has a 92.78% chance of being wrong.
Romney could still lose. I don’t think Obama is a near inevitable as Silver suggests. I’m not sure I want to see the returns Tuesday night.
What kind of prognostication record does this character have?