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Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased (Silver: 83.7% Chance Obama Win)
NY Times FiveThirtyEight ^ | November 3, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/03/2012 6:56:11 AM PDT by PJ-Comix

President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012election; 2012polls; natesilver; natesilver538; natesilverpoll
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A few days ago, Nate Silver had Obama's chances of winning at 77.4%. Now he has upped it to 83.7%. I believe there is a 88.7% chance that by Monday Silver will increase Obama's victory chances to 93.4%.
1 posted on 11/03/2012 6:56:15 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: Charles Henrickson; bcsco

Nate Silver has just increased the size of the DUmmie security blanket.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 6:57:24 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: PJ-Comix

Nate Silver of course is looking at a skewed turnout model.

The only way he can be right IS if there is a lopsided Democratic turnout advantage like in 2008.

Every one has been making that assumption!

I think its wrong and there is only one way to disprove it. If there is a huge GOP turnout on Tuesday.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 7:00:02 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: PJ-Comix

license to riot


4 posted on 11/03/2012 7:00:47 AM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: PJ-Comix

Silver doubles down on his foolishness...

Boy is this ever going to be fun on Wednesday morning!


5 posted on 11/03/2012 7:01:12 AM PDT by Elpasser
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To: PJ-Comix

This is one of the reasons why the polling industry needs to die.

Who the hell is this guy and why the hell do I keep seeing people keep referring to him?


6 posted on 11/03/2012 7:01:21 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: PJ-Comix

Did you heard Michael Barrone taking a jab indirectly at him on Hannity’s show. Funny some guy, 35 years, old with a bad comb forward, is now the Oracle of politics. I don’t listen to any political “expert” who first voted in the Bush\Gore election. This guy better have a good day job, after Tuesday he may need to go into the witness protection program, seriously!


7 posted on 11/03/2012 7:02:41 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: PJ-Comix

Wow! Nice graphics. I didn’t know you could graph bulls**t.


8 posted on 11/03/2012 7:03:48 AM PDT by Juan Medén
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To: PJ-Comix

Oh Nate Nate Nate....whatever meds he is taking will need to be upped substantially on Nov 7th


9 posted on 11/03/2012 7:04:58 AM PDT by Nifster
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To: PJ-Comix

Obama’s chances on InTrade are also spiking this morning - up to 67.7%, a new high since September.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 7:07:40 AM PDT by montag813
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To: dontreadthis

Yup. I think at this point they are setting up the “we was robbed” story line. For them, Obama is the clear winner. It’s a foregone conclusion. No question about it. But ... when Romney comes in with 52% of the vote, they will “know” that Romney cheated, and they will immediately set fire to their own neighborhood, in order to teach me a lesson.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 7:08:24 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Global Warming is a religion, and I don't want to be taxed to pay for a faith that is not mine.)
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To: PJ-Comix
(Detroit) Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%

another candidate 2.30%

Undecided 4.23%
12 posted on 11/03/2012 7:08:47 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: PJ-Comix
For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased

He just gave himself an out to be wrong....all the polls did not catch it.

They are going to use these statistically biased polls for rioting.

13 posted on 11/03/2012 7:10:29 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: ClearCase_guy

You nailed it.


14 posted on 11/03/2012 7:11:08 AM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: ClearCase_guy
But ... when Romney comes in with 52% of the vote, they will “know” that Romney cheated, and they will immediately set fire to their own neighborhood, in order to teach me a lesson.<\i>

that made me laugh out loud!

15 posted on 11/03/2012 7:13:40 AM PDT by cardinal4 (Vote him out!)
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To: PJ-Comix; All

‘Romney’s Pennsylvania push not a mirage’

The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.

But there is a method to Mitt’s supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:

Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.

So assume:

(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ‘04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

Then:

Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.

The electorate has changed since 2008 in several states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Colorado. These states are all trending red and liberals may be in a for a very rude surprise on Wednesday morning.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/11/romneys_pennsylvania_push_not_a_mirage.html#ixzz2BAWCgULn


16 posted on 11/03/2012 7:14:16 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: VanDeKoik

He was very accurate in 2008...got 49 states right. That’s really all the history he has (before that he did sports stats). But was it really hard to predict in 2008? Near the end, McCain was giving up on Florida and other states. It wasn’t hard to call most states. This Silver guy is going to get forgotten, real quick, in a few days.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 7:16:38 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: PJ-Comix

And yet Romney can attract crowds of 30,000 in Ohio, and Obama can’t even fill a Clevelan high school auditorium.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 7:16:45 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: PJ-Comix

Nate Silver needs to prepare for an epic disappointment.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 7:17:04 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Elpasser
If Romney wins, I actually think the most satisfying thing for me will be to unload my sarcasm upon a couple of liberal acquaintances of mine who worship at the shrine of Silver.
20 posted on 11/03/2012 7:22:28 AM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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