Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Nate Silver: Media is overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.
538 ^ | 10/10/13 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/10/2013 7:50:14 PM PDT by jern

That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around.

There's been plenty of bullshit, in other words. We really don't know all that much about how the shutdown is going to be resolved, or how the long-term political consequences are going to play out.

(Excerpt) Read more at grantland.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: natesilver; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills

1 posted on 10/10/2013 7:50:14 PM PDT by jern
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: jern
A normal shutdown would have passed without incident and would have been resolved, but the ghoul in the spite house and his friends Harry, Hagel and the Harpy, are making it uncomfortable for many. A slimy pox on their backsides.
2 posted on 10/10/2013 7:53:22 PM PDT by madison10
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: madison10

Obama screwing the families of dead soldiers domes him.


3 posted on 10/10/2013 7:54:55 PM PDT by DManA (t)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DManA

He reportedly signed it this afternoon after he rejected it.


4 posted on 10/10/2013 8:03:43 PM PDT by Cvengr (Adversity in life and death is inevitable. Thru faith in Christ, stress is optional.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: jern

It is not bullshit. It is newspeak. Manufactured news. Bullshit with an attitude.


5 posted on 10/10/2013 8:04:13 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jern
Don't tell that to the loser Hotair posters, they are panicking over the fake NBC poll. I am never wasting my time going on that looser site again. They are the people who pushed Romney on us.
6 posted on 10/10/2013 8:05:39 PM PDT by cowboyusa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jern
I hate to find myself agreeing with Nate Silver, but he is mostly right. The negative consequences will be minimal. In 95-96, the shutdown occurred at the worst possible time for Republicans: the massive victory in 94 meant that there were a disproportionate number of vulnerable freshman Republicans, many in deep blue districts; it was a presidential election, where Republicans tend to not fare as well; Bob Dole vs. Bill Clinton; the economy was doing well, which greatly helped Clinton. And, most importantly, the shutdown lacked focus -- it was a distant budget battle, not something that affected people directly. In fact, it was such an unfocused shutdown, that many people genuinely believed that the shutdown occurred because Newt had to sit at the back of the plane.

In other words, it was a perfect storm, working against the Republicans. And still ... a small number of lost house seats, and pickups in the senate. Hardly the end of the world. In fact, it is reasonable to conclude that the shutdown may have helped the Republicans since, given all of the factors working against them, they did remarkably well.

But he is not completely right. The shutdown, if it does not result in a cave, will have a dramatic effect on Republican turnout. Quite simply, if the Republicans cave, they will get slaughtered in 2014 (just as they would have if the house and Cruz had not acted). Conservatives, who make up the most volatile voting block in the Republican party, will sit home. And all of the dreams of retaking the senate will disappear. However, if the Republicans hold the line, conservatives will show up in force. Maybe not enough to win the Senate, but certainly enough to stave off disaster.

And if Democrats start becoming apathetic, which is a distinct possibility, it could easily be another 94/2010.

Assuming the Republicans don't cave, that is.
7 posted on 10/10/2013 8:06:33 PM PDT by jjsheridan5
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jern

The best polling on the shutdown is at yougov.com by far.

The results are muddled...


8 posted on 10/10/2013 8:07:12 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cvengr

We need to know who talked to him between the signing and the reneging. (perfectly good word BTW)


9 posted on 10/10/2013 8:13:57 PM PDT by DManA (t)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: jern
Everyone is getting along....everything will be ironed out momentarily.


10 posted on 10/10/2013 8:23:29 PM PDT by Daffynition (*In memory of FReeper Blackie. God rest his *Hooligan* soul.*)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Daffynition

Mooshelle - doing what she does best.


11 posted on 10/10/2013 8:42:43 PM PDT by Ancient Wonderboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: jern

The NBC poll that had the GOP taking a bath oversampled govt workers. Something like 20% of those polled were govt workers vs 8% in the general population. That would make a big difference in the results.


12 posted on 10/10/2013 8:43:33 PM PDT by JPG (Yes We Can morphs into Make It Hurt.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jjsheridan5

I would agree with your analysis.

The senate is within reach if Karl Rove’s goon squad don’t try to ruin everything just to spite us. We now have about an hour’s worth of footage of Queen Mary making sweet love to Obamacare on the senate floor.


13 posted on 10/10/2013 8:44:59 PM PDT by Viennacon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

Got to admit, that is a fascinating read. Very objective and an interesting application of stats.


14 posted on 10/10/2013 8:56:31 PM PDT by Crimson Elephant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: JPG

The NBC poll that had the GOP taking a bath oversampled govt workers. Something like 20% of those polled were govt workers vs 8% in the general population. That would make a big difference in the results.
+++++++++++
That would explain the results. Did you get this from the PDF? Is there an R-D-I breakdown?


15 posted on 10/10/2013 9:06:35 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (e)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: jjsheridan5

I agree I didn’t buy into Nate Silvers analytics. Figured he was a hack for the NYTimes....but he’s nailed it two elections in a row. I bought in to Fox news’s and Drudges guys....but Nate has the hot hand.


16 posted on 10/10/2013 9:12:07 PM PDT by Blackirish (Forward Comrades!!!!!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: jern

I’ve gained a lot of respect for Silver. He may be a leftist but at least he is intellectually honest which is a rare thing indeed. He did very well in his projection of the last election and though none of us wanted to see the writing on the wall even though we had been acutely aware of Romney’s weaknesses which on election day materialized proving out our concerns.

Silver is right the impact of the shutdown is being overplayed just as many political events are. The unfortunate truth is that the apolitical masses are in a chronic state of ADHD and even many who are so called experts seem to have little or no context of history even from a few months ago. This is why when a politician leaves office he becomes more popular till people have often forgotten why they hated him and I’ve even seen the opposite situation occur where people forget why they liked a certain politician.

Right now Hillary has fairly high popularity because people see her as not bad in comparison to Obama. This is an example of how shifts in context occur. Go into a TV store that only has 30 & 40 inch TVs and they seem small when at one time they were considered absolutely enormous. Pick up a cell phone from 2 years ago and they seem woefully inadequate. Leftists understand that in order to shift society their direction they must push hard to the extreme left and marginalize what were traditional values whether they be work ethic, thrift, marriage, etc.

But back to the topic. This shutdown may not have clear political impact as far as Democrats winning versus GOP but there is definitely going to be fallout in the GOP primaries over this episode and since most of the fallout is going to happen in states where Democrats have little change of gaining the political effect will not be in shear numbers of Democrats versus Republicans but a more unified more conservative GOP.


17 posted on 10/10/2013 9:39:03 PM PDT by Maelstorm (The political class love diversity and choice only when the its choices they approve of.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ancient Wonderboy

Once trailer park trash....always......


18 posted on 10/10/2013 10:07:49 PM PDT by Daffynition (*In memory of FReeper Blackie. God rest his *Hooligan* soul.*)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Maelstorm

it still does not address what would happen if a default does occur and enough of the US public thinks the Republicans caused it? That is a severe issue. I just don’t see how the Republican leadership can get the public on their side if a default does happen and it does collapse the economy and cause the worst Depression in our nation’s history. I don’t see how the Republicans would even be able to articulate why they are in the right -even though, of course, they would for sure be in the right - if a default happens and all the hysteria predictions about a default come true. Which is why i still find myself hoping a default does not happen and that the hysteria on the debt default is merely biased, unfounded hysteria. Otherwise, it means all the House GOP is between the ultimate rock and hard place as they could face masses of voting constituents turning on them no matter what they do. Which means they may very well not see the point in continuing the fight.


19 posted on 10/11/2013 1:09:25 AM PDT by freedom462
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: freedom462

The pubbies need to take out ads showing they did all in their power to avert a default. They sent it to the senate but Obama and Reid stopped it. All they had to do to avert a default is to vote on and sign the bill the republicans sent.


20 posted on 10/11/2013 4:46:35 AM PDT by McGavin999
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: justa-hairyape
It is not bullshit. It is newspeak. Manufactured news. Bullshit with an attitude.

Yep - not any different than coverage of tropical storm Karen - they kept trying to "not understate" it because of the potential...Everyone knew it was a non-event, but the MSM has to blow everything up to puff its own ego and importance.

21 posted on 10/11/2013 4:57:40 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

This is where I saw it:

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/10/10/about-that-nbcwsj-poll-that-killed-republicans-on-the-shutdown/


22 posted on 10/11/2013 5:06:20 AM PDT by JPG (Yes We Can morphs into Make It Hurt.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: JPG
Thanks for your reply. I did find this same data at the end of the PDF file of the full survey. Also note, on the page that you referenced, the following:

"Then let’s factor in the poll’s partisan sample, which was 43-32 Democrat, the percent that admits voting for Obama, which was 44 versus just 35 for Romney, and this looks like a left-heavy sample."

23 posted on 10/11/2013 5:18:55 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (e)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: madison10

Obama’s overplaying his hand. His actions make no sense, unless you have a bigger scandal you want buried.

Keep in mind that Obama’s gone after whistleblowers with the vengeance of a tyrant. The media, normally cowed, is scared.

When was the last time we’ve heard about the IRS scandal (tipping the election to Obama and punishing his enemies list), Benghazi, F&F, etc.

There are likely scandals out there we don’t even know about yet.


24 posted on 10/11/2013 5:51:56 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: freedom462

Which is why i still find myself hoping a default does not happen and that the hysteria on the debt default is merely biased, unfounded hysteria.
*****************************
You entire post was hysteria, and smacks of the Dems’ talking points.

The US will not default on it’s debt. With about $200-250 billion a month in revenue and debt service being about $25-30 billion... HOW in hell does anyone think we can’t pay our debts?

If we didn’t have idiots running this Administration and Senate, the Conservative Pubs would be able to eliminate a lot of duplication and unnecessary agencies to reduce spending and reduce the debt.


25 posted on 10/11/2013 6:01:00 AM PDT by octex
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: octex
Thanks for posting this big slice of reality:

The US will not default on it’s debt. With about $200-250 billion a month in revenue and debt service being about $25-30 billion... HOW in hell does anyone think we can’t pay our debts?

26 posted on 10/11/2013 7:31:53 AM PDT by Grampa Dave ( Boycott Reno & Las Vegas until those in control there, remove Reid from the senate!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: octex

I don’t believe what i posted above personally. The problem is the Republicans’ ability to get the public on their side by showing them that it is indeed hysteria. And that is where the usual Republican problems with articulating their point of view come into play and might be leaving those leading the charge with few options at their disposal.


27 posted on 10/11/2013 8:39:10 AM PDT by freedom462
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Daffynition

“Once trailer park trash....always......”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

That is insulting...to trailer park trash.


28 posted on 10/11/2013 9:58:48 AM PDT by RipSawyer (The TREE currently falling on you actually IS worse than a Bush.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: freedom462

I don’t think anyone is talking about a default. If a default occurs everyone will be damaged. Republicans CAN NOT continue to be timid because they fear they will be blamed for something. When are they not blamed? The GOP needs to invest in pulling in people into their political machine that know retail branding and know messaging and how to aggressively market conservative ideas instead of just flailing after the Democrats. We need to move toward teaching and away from following where ever the popular culture left wing media is trying to force us to go.


29 posted on 10/11/2013 12:06:27 PM PDT by Maelstorm (The political class love diversity and choice only when the its choices they approve of.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson