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Nate Silver: GOP Closer to Taking Senate Control in 2014
NewsMax ^ | 07/16/2013 | Lisa Baron

Posted on 07/16/2013 7:46:55 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Republicans might be close to winning control of the Senate after next year's elections, according to New York Times statistician Nate Silver.

Writing in his "FiveThirtyEight" blog on Monday, Silver said this weekend's announcement by former Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer that he would not run for the Senate "represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber."

The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey's special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver. The loss will leave Republicans with 45 seats, meaning they will need six more to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joe Biden's tiebreaking vote.

But, Silver stressed, Montana — along with West Virginia and South Dakota, two other red states where an incumbent Democrat has retired and the party has not identified a strong candidate to replace them — "gives Republicans a running start."

"Republicans could then win three more seats from among red states like Louisiana and Arkansas, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot, or they could take aim at two purple states, Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats have retired," Silver said.

He said more opportunities could arise if the political environment becomes more favorable to Republicans, perhaps "because of a further slide in Mr. Obama's approval ratings."

Meanwhile, he noted, "Republicans have few seats of their own to defend," even though seats in Kentucky and Georgia might be vulnerable.

"Unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense," he said.

Silver concluded that the "best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a GOP pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; gop; natesilver; senate
Love him or hate him, Nate Silver was the MOST ACCURATE forecaster of the 2012 elections.

His prediction was NEAR PERFECT.

In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and after Florida has been called for Obama in Nov. 2012, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.

1 posted on 07/16/2013 7:46:55 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

FROM THIS SITE:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/paperbacktheology/2012/11/the-best-or-worst-pollsters-in-the-2012-election-how-did-nate-silver-do-it.html

Nate Silver was SPOT ON.

The Top Five Pollsters in 2012 (After Nate Silver):

1. Investor’s Business Daily wins the most accurate polling data for 2012

2. Google – came in a close second

3. The Mellman Group, led by Mark Mellman, shined again this year in third place

4. RAND Corp., a non-profit research group, came in fourth.

5. CNN finished out the top 5

Other notables

6. Reuters – just out of the top five

11. Quinnipiac – middle of the pack for one of the high profile polls

12. Marist

19. Zogby

Who Were the Worst Pollsters in 2012?

Rasumussen

American Research

Mason-Dixon

Gallup was dead last


2 posted on 07/16/2013 7:49:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Harkin’s seat is open in 2014.
It would be good to be rid of him and his ilk...
3 posted on 07/16/2013 7:50:19 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (NRA Life Member)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Silver concluded that the “best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a GOP pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats”

I guess Dred Scott must be running for the Senate and the Pubs will end up with 50 3/5 seats according to Silver.


4 posted on 07/16/2013 7:57:18 PM PDT by Rembrandt (Part of the 51% who pay Federal taxes)
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To: SeekAndFind
Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and after Florida has been called for Obama in Nov. 2012, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.

What about the other 7?
5 posted on 07/16/2013 8:18:06 PM PDT by yorkiemom
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To: Rembrandt

He is dealing with probabilities—you can make fun of him, but he is well worth reading.


6 posted on 07/16/2013 8:22:11 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( (It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged. --G.K. Chesterton))
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To: SeekAndFind

“The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey’s special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver.”

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is Christie’s fault. He could have appointed a conservative not due for election for well after 2014. Instead it probably will go Dem, according to Silver.

Thanks CC. Don’t to forget to hug your obama doll before you go to sleep tonight.


7 posted on 07/16/2013 8:22:42 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
From Wiki, re Mister Harkin...

While running for his Senate seat in 1984, and again while running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992, Harkin has faced criticism for claiming that he had flown combat missions over North Vietnam. In a 1979 round table discussion with other Congressional military veterans, Harkin said of his service as a Navy pilot: "One year was in Vietnam. I was flying F-4s and F-8s on combat air patrols and photo-reconnaissance support missions". These comments were later published in a 1981 book by David Broder. After subsequent inquiries by Barry Goldwater and The Wall Street Journal, Harkin clarified that he had been stationed in Japan and sometimes flew recently repaired aircraft on test missions over Vietnam. His service flying F-4s and F-8s was later, while he was stationed at U.S. Naval Base Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

I have great respect for almost everyone who wears, or who has worn our Country's uniform (I even include myself in this great group.)

This respect ends, and most abruptly so, on anyone who claims combat service when there was none.

8 posted on 07/16/2013 8:24:33 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: SeekAndFind

I just hope the GOP doesn’t nominate idiots (Akin and Mourdock) or hopeless candidates (Sharon Angle) who piss away races they should win.

In 2010 it was Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, and Delaware. Yeah, Castle was mostly worthless but he might have cast a good vote once in a while.

In 2012 it was Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin, Montana, North Dakota, and Florida.

The GOP should already have at least 56 seats. At a minimum, the GOP should pick candidates who don’t fall into obvious abortion-trap questions from a hostile media.


9 posted on 07/16/2013 8:41:23 PM PDT by Aetius
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To: SeekAndFind

He dead wrong about the WI Gov recall .
Dead wrong about Rick Scott losing.
He was dead wrong the GOP taking the House and at he last second change his analysis because he knew it was pure propaganda .

But, He is an Dedicated Obama bot who got insider information about 2008 from the Obama bot campaign people.

Fraud.


10 posted on 07/16/2013 8:41:34 PM PDT by ncalburt (Amnesty media out in full force)
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To: Aetius

Let us hope they do not nominate RINOs that alienate their own base


11 posted on 07/16/2013 8:43:17 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: Seaplaner
Conservative Iowegians like to stop at Harkin’s booth at the Iowa State Fair and ask if copies of Harkin’s book, “Wings Over Hanoi,” will be available...

The “Wings Over Hanoi” pimp shows up on Harkin’s web page and occasionally in letters to newspapers in Iowa.

12 posted on 07/17/2013 5:32:28 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (NRA Life Member)
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To: Seaplaner
This respect ends, and most abruptly so, on anyone who claims combat service when there was none.

"I ain't seen nothing since I stepped on that landmine in Viet Cong in 72. It was very painful. I was in...Sang Bang... Dang Gong... I was all over the place, a lot of places. I was with the Green Berets, Special Unit Battalions... Commando Airborne Tactics... Specialist Tactics Unit Battalion. Yeah, it was real hush hush. I was Agent Orange, Special Agent Orange, that was me."


13 posted on 07/17/2013 5:47:07 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: SeekAndFind

“even though seats in Kentucky and Georgia might be vulnerable”

Don’t you believe it about GA. Saxby Chambliss’ seat will be filled by a conservative republican hopefully Paul Broun.


14 posted on 07/17/2013 5:57:18 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think this guy, Silver is a punk. But, you got to give him credit for his forecasting in 2012. Hopefully he’s right on this.


15 posted on 07/17/2013 9:01:59 AM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: erod

He may be a punk, but I’ll give him credit where credit is due — FOR HIS PREDICTIVE RECORD.

But then there’s the caveat I always get from my mutual funds: “Past Performance is no guarantee of future results”.


16 posted on 07/17/2013 9:06:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Got to give him credit, even if we despise him, totally agree.


17 posted on 07/17/2013 9:27:39 AM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: ncalburt
It's a lie that he was wrong about the GOP taking the House or that he changed his analysis at the last second.

"Republicans are well-positioned to win control of the House of Representatives in tomorrow’s elections, and quite possibly to achieve the largest gain made by either party in a Congressional election since World War II. Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms. Moreover, given the exceptionally large number of seats in play, the Republicans’ gains could be significantly higher; they have better than a one-in-three chance of winning at least 60 seats, a one-in-six chance of winning at least 70 seats, and have some realistic chance of a gain exceeding 80 seats, according to the model."
Changing his prediction at the last second because he knew it was "propaganda" as you say is not at all characteristic of Silver. It does, however, hew pretty closely to what happened at Gallup last year (not that they knew it was propaganda, but could see they were dead dead wrong). Check out Unskewed Polls for a clown who changed his prediction dramatically at the last second because he knew he was peddling bs,

18 posted on 07/20/2013 6:24:38 AM PDT by SpekeParrot
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To: SpekeParrot

I love all the trolls here defending this Obama bot Silver.
This fraud is the Obama pollster and nothing more.

This. obama bot was running around trying to hide the fact about the GOP winning anything each year .

You can bs me. Troll


19 posted on 07/20/2013 12:45:36 PM PDT by ncalburt (Amnesty media out in full force)
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To: ncalburt

Do you have any actual facts to support your contention, or just vitriol?

I posted Silver’s 2010 house prediction clear as day.


20 posted on 07/29/2013 11:46:32 AM PDT by SpekeParrot
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To: SeekAndFind
Love him or hate him, Nate Silver was the MOST ACCURATE forecaster of the 2012 elections.

Unfortunately not even Silver can predict a Mourdock or an Akin. A pick up of seats in a virtual certainty but control of the senate is not.

21 posted on 07/29/2013 11:52:58 AM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: SpekeParrot

Commie sliver is a Obama bot and nothing more.

Go troll for the left somewhere else.


22 posted on 07/29/2013 9:29:40 PM PDT by ncalburt ( Amnesty media out in full force)
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To: SpekeParrot

He is the truth about Obama Dem party shrill
Left wing radical - former Daiy Koz scam pollster

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/09/nate-Silver-Jumps-Shark-No-one-Cares

So why do you defend this Daily Koz alum here again ??


23 posted on 07/29/2013 9:51:57 PM PDT by ncalburt ( Amnesty media out in full force)
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