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Sure, Nate Silver was on-point during the 2012 election, but before you place your bets behind the bespectacled number genie, remember that he predicted that this would be a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl — and that he's gotten a little better at the politics game than anything else. But in a column for The New York Times Magazine published online today, Silver breaks down his latest mumbo-jumbo over S.R.S. rankings and something called the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which is exciting if you're a statistician groupie — just not if you're a Baltimore Ravens fan. In the end, Silver seems to...

Nate Silver, the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blogger and statistician who rose to prominence accurately predicting sports and elections, has run the numbers and has come to a conclusion: The Seahawks, he predicts, will play in the Super Bowl. There, they’ll take on the New England Patriots, Silver thinks. And while the Seahawks may not be the second-best team in the NFL — Silver says that’s probably the Denver Broncos — they may just be the best team in the NFC. “There’s always uncertainty with any metric,” Silver told ESPN’s “First Take.” “I do think with a Seattle team that...

Nate Silver has gotten a lot of press for his near perfect election night predictions. In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and now that Florida has been called for president Obama, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.How did Silver do it?Only Likely Voters Matter: This is one obvious reason SilverÂ’s method outshines everyone else. Anything other than likely voter models is useless information. This is key....

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6 Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0 Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1% ...

"Dedicated to the heavenly statistician God from the NY Times who for months swore Obama was going to win..with a 91% probability"

Im just getting word a team of GOP techies are launching a full site sometime tomorrow called "Nate Silver Was Wrong"..they've already launched a Facebook and Twitter..LOL..Hilarious

With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it,...

We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1. 30 percent IF its R+1? really? so you basically drop 68 points and a romney win if the only thing changes is O goes from tie turnout to plus r 1? Pew, Gallup and Rassmussen show turnout at R + 1-3 points...

President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.

Lot of things have changed since then, though. Like, for example: Silver's preferred candidate losing the independent vote.

RUSH: Folks, I'm gonna give you some advice. For those of you who are faint of heart, for those of you who scare easily, for those of you who... Let’s say you live in St. Louis. In the St. Louis Post-Dispatch today there are two pictures. There's a picture of a compassionate and caring and very attached and very hurting Obama, hugging a New Jerseyan who's lost everything. Right next to it is a picture of Romney in front of a large gathering waving and doing campaign appearances. Of course, the juxtaposition is Romney doesn't care; Obama cares. If you...

Punditry vs. numbers! Old school journalists vs. data-driven wonks! Scouts vs. Moneyball! Nate Silver (who has become increasingly embattled for his confident assessments of Obama's chances) just offered Joe Scarborough a wager that will redefine the future of journalism.

Nate Silver is just $10 away from predicting that Obama has an 82.7% chance of winning!Perhaps the most laughable aspect of this election season is the way the DUmmies have embraced the PRECISE prognostications of one Nate Silver. Silver's shtick isn't to merely announce poll results that are artificially weighted in favor of Democrats. Any run of the mill leftwing pollster, such as PPP, can do that. Silver takes it to the next level in which he dramatically announced to the exact decimal point the chances that Obama has of winning. As of Halloween, Silver has declared that Obama...

New reports indicate that the 2012 presidential campaign is coming to Pennsylvania. After a spate of advertising during the summer, Pennsylvania — in a break from tradition — has largely avoided the volume of campaign commercials that states like Ohio and Virginia have seen. But beginning Tuesday, Restore Our Future, a “super-PAC” supporting Mitt Romney, will blanket Pennsylvania with about $2 million worth of advertisements. President Obama’s advisers greeted that news on Monday by saying that the Obama campaign would also spend advertising money in the Keystone State between now and Election Day. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state...

By DYLAN BYERS | 10/29/12 3:27 PM EDT Nate Silver could be a one-term celebrity. The New York Times' resident political predictor says President Barack Obama currently has a 74.6% chance of winning re-election. It's a prediction that liberals, whose heart rates continue to fluctuate with the release of every new poll, want to take solace in, but somehow can't. Sure, this is the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 election in 49 of 50 states, but this year's polls suggest a nail-biter. "Romney, clearly, could still win," Silver told POLITICO today.

In the history of presidential elections, has there ever been such an effort by one side to poll their way to victory? While the Republicans have spoken this season about jobs and debt – willing themselves to a moral victory – the Democrats have talked constantly about how well their guy is polling in one or two states. The goal is to create a sense of inevitability, to convince the public to vote for Obama because he’s a winner and who wouldn’t want to vote for the winner? We’ve witnessed the evolution of polling from an objective gauge of the...

Click on the link below for the analysis. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/ There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney. It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results. I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political...

Nate Silver continues to lead the Democrat Graveyard Whistling Choir, raising Obama to a 70.3% likelihood of victory based on . . . what? I dunno. I’m not an expert with a New York Times column or anything, much less a Magical Forecasting Model™ that can divine future events with the precise scientific exactitude of 1/10 of one percent. This morning, Silver told us that Ohio might be a crucial battleground, which may be news to a victim who just escaped from an underground rape-dungeon after nine months of being held hostage and tortured by a sociopathic sex offender. But...

The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday. However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio....

Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking: Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecastIntrade's prediction marketBetfair's prediction market First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at. Nate Silver, New York Times  On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high...