Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

In National Polling, Itís Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)
New York Times ^ | 10/19/2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT by radpolis

The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.

However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; natesilver; waaaah
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-44 next last
Nate Silver crying over Gallup polls showing Romney leading.
1 posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:30 PM PDT by radpolis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: radpolis

What do the hetero pollsters think?


2 posted on 10/19/2012 7:38:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: radpolis

He has a point. Gallup’s numbers are so far from everyone else that it’s difficult to believe. Hoping it’s true, but we’ll have to wait and see.


3 posted on 10/19/2012 7:38:51 PM PDT by MeanGreen2008
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MeanGreen2008; radpolis
Gallup is being sued by Eric Holder. Why would their polls be more favorable to Gov. Romney than the other major pollsters?
4 posted on 10/19/2012 7:41:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: MeanGreen2008
They know the other polls are oversampled +D.

They also know which way the momentum is shifting.

Clearly, the last debate did nothing to stop Romney's momentum.

With each debate the American People get more comfortable with Romney as President.

5 posted on 10/19/2012 7:42:31 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: MeanGreen2008

I think Gallup is picking up tea party surge that other pollsters are not. .”Feels a lot like 2010 and scott walker recall.


6 posted on 10/19/2012 7:42:31 PM PDT by scbison
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: radpolis

I’m curious about the States which changed their electoral votes to reflect national popular vote and what impact this would have on Romney.


7 posted on 10/19/2012 7:46:38 PM PDT by soupbone1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: radpolis
Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average,

No actually they do not. They all show Romney leading. Some sligtjly, some seriously. Only the Media polls have any good news for Obama. Nate's problem is he wants to selectively cherry pick the polls that validate his personal political opinions. Basically any MEDIA poll should be thrown out right from the start. They are designed to drive headlines, not to find fact. Looking at the professional polling, Obama is in trouble. Nate want to ignore those polls to cling to the polling that tells him what he wants to hear. Hopefully this election will be the end of Nate Silver's media hyped reputation. He has gone WAY out on a limb here. If the professional polling is correct, and he is this far wrong, his career is over.

8 posted on 10/19/2012 7:47:21 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MeanGreen2008

I remember back in 1996 when almost every pollster was predicting that Clinton would win by 20+ percentage points. I think one had Clinton up by 25 points over Dole!

Only one lone pollster hit it on the money and showed Dole losing by 8% That was Zogby. Of course, he has managed to live down his reputation ever since.

So yes, one lone pollster all out on its own can be and in times past has been right, and the rest of the herd wrong.

That said, Gallup (like Pew) has a past history of wild swings in its numbers.


9 posted on 10/19/2012 7:48:08 PM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: soupbone1

Basically the change should be insignificant. Romney may gain 1 in Maine and lose 2 in NE. If he wins NH and Ohio that will be an insignificant difference


10 posted on 10/19/2012 7:49:53 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: soupbone1

Do you know which state did that? Please list.


11 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:27 PM PDT by Fee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The homosexual statistician was on the Daily Show yesterday trying to plug his new book. He knows has to do it now because once Obama is gone, so will his credibility.


12 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:30 PM PDT by libh8er
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: soupbone1

None. This law is not effect for two reasons.

1. Not enough states have approved the law. If the did it would favor RR because three of the States are California, Ilinois, and Maryland.

2. They may face a constituitonal challenged, which is not clearcut, because state compacts require, per the constitution, approval from Congress. However, the Constituiton allows state to assign electors however they want.


13 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:42 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Problem for Nate is the state polls lag behind the National polls. So the state polls should fall in line next 10 days.

So when both the National and the State polls swing against Nate’s opinions, where then is he going to run and hide?


14 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:42 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Fee

Nebraska and Maine are the only ones in effect for this election.


15 posted on 10/19/2012 7:52:33 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: radpolis

The New York Times... Now why would I believe anything they say? Come to think of it, I don’t believe anything they say. They are nothing but liberal waste. As a matter of fact, I’m not believing anybody’s poll from now to Nov 6th. I will trust the anger that I feel instead. Screw the polls.


16 posted on 10/19/2012 7:54:25 PM PDT by lwoodham (I am Andrew Breitbart. Don't doubt me on this.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: radpolis
However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Circular logic.

17 posted on 10/19/2012 7:54:58 PM PDT by matt1234 (As Obama sowed in the Arab Spring, so he is reaping in the Arab Fall.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MeanGreen2008
The two most accurate pollsters in 2008 were Pew and Rasmussen. Pew had likely voters 49% R, 45% O after the first debate. Rasmussen has it tied at 48% today.

Gallup has been polling presidential elections since FDR.

Do you weight these polls more heavily, or the same as a poll by an ex-Catholic college in Poughkeepsie NY using questionable methodology? (Silver seems to be weighing results from Poughkeepsie more heavily.)

18 posted on 10/19/2012 7:55:43 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

I remember that well. Few places reported Zogby because his polling did not conform to the image the media wanted to create. Rush Limbaugh was one of the few who ever mentioned Zogby.


19 posted on 10/19/2012 8:00:52 PM PDT by Dan in Wichita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: radpolis

Nate Silver is wrong and Gallup is correct.

It predicted Obama’s win down to the final point on Oct 18th, 2008.

He can’t dismiss it simply because it shows a result he doesn’t like. I think Mitt Romney holds a very strong lead. Other pollsters just don’t want to come out and say it.

Every one knows Romney is going to win this election and it won’t be a close one at all.


20 posted on 10/19/2012 8:02:33 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-44 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson