Posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT by radpolis
Nate mentioned 60 seats were possible but couldn’t bring himself to embrace that number and settled for a 50 something final estimate.
Charlie Cook was predicting 60 seats.
So was Mark Halprin.
2010 tarnished the golden boy’s crystal ball.
Yes, as the election draws near, that is the sample that matters and it will show the real poll numbers.
In effect, Silver is picking off all the poll results he doesn't like, while blowing off all the methodological problems with the ones that he does like. What was it that Mark Twain quoted of Benjamin Disraeli? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The general thought holds for statisticians, too. Wearing a white lab coat doesn't turn anyone into a scientist.
http://news.yahoo.com/other-polls-show-tight-race-gallup-stands-apart-020811767.html
The liberal press will doubt and downplay any poll that does not show their savior leading. They had better get used to saying President Romney.
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