To: crosslink; radpolis
My recollection was that in 2010 Rasmussen called the historical
Republican takeover of congress correctly, but got the margin wrong on some races, particularly in the West. If the worst thing a pollster ever does is get a few races in an off-year election incorrect, I still think that's pretty good. The bottom line is that Rasmussen was still right, and Pelosi appeared to be shocked that she needed to move out of her office.
In effect, Silver is picking off all the poll results he doesn't like, while blowing off all the methodological problems with the ones that he does like. What was it that Mark Twain quoted of Benjamin Disraeli? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The general thought holds for statisticians, too. Wearing a white lab coat doesn't turn anyone into a scientist.
posted on 10/20/2012 4:08:25 AM PDT
("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
posted on 10/20/2012 9:23:40 PM PDT
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