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In National Polling, Itís Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)
New York Times ^ | 10/19/2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT by radpolis

The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.

However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; natesilver; waaaah
Nate Silver crying over Gallup polls showing Romney leading.
1 posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:30 PM PDT by radpolis
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To: radpolis

What do the hetero pollsters think?


2 posted on 10/19/2012 7:38:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: radpolis

He has a point. Gallup’s numbers are so far from everyone else that it’s difficult to believe. Hoping it’s true, but we’ll have to wait and see.


3 posted on 10/19/2012 7:38:51 PM PDT by MeanGreen2008
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To: MeanGreen2008; radpolis
Gallup is being sued by Eric Holder. Why would their polls be more favorable to Gov. Romney than the other major pollsters?
4 posted on 10/19/2012 7:41:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: MeanGreen2008
They know the other polls are oversampled +D.

They also know which way the momentum is shifting.

Clearly, the last debate did nothing to stop Romney's momentum.

With each debate the American People get more comfortable with Romney as President.

5 posted on 10/19/2012 7:42:31 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: MeanGreen2008

I think Gallup is picking up tea party surge that other pollsters are not. .”Feels a lot like 2010 and scott walker recall.


6 posted on 10/19/2012 7:42:31 PM PDT by scbison
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To: radpolis

I’m curious about the States which changed their electoral votes to reflect national popular vote and what impact this would have on Romney.


7 posted on 10/19/2012 7:46:38 PM PDT by soupbone1
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To: radpolis
Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average,

No actually they do not. They all show Romney leading. Some sligtjly, some seriously. Only the Media polls have any good news for Obama. Nate's problem is he wants to selectively cherry pick the polls that validate his personal political opinions. Basically any MEDIA poll should be thrown out right from the start. They are designed to drive headlines, not to find fact. Looking at the professional polling, Obama is in trouble. Nate want to ignore those polls to cling to the polling that tells him what he wants to hear. Hopefully this election will be the end of Nate Silver's media hyped reputation. He has gone WAY out on a limb here. If the professional polling is correct, and he is this far wrong, his career is over.

8 posted on 10/19/2012 7:47:21 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MeanGreen2008

I remember back in 1996 when almost every pollster was predicting that Clinton would win by 20+ percentage points. I think one had Clinton up by 25 points over Dole!

Only one lone pollster hit it on the money and showed Dole losing by 8% That was Zogby. Of course, he has managed to live down his reputation ever since.

So yes, one lone pollster all out on its own can be and in times past has been right, and the rest of the herd wrong.

That said, Gallup (like Pew) has a past history of wild swings in its numbers.


9 posted on 10/19/2012 7:48:08 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: soupbone1

Basically the change should be insignificant. Romney may gain 1 in Maine and lose 2 in NE. If he wins NH and Ohio that will be an insignificant difference


10 posted on 10/19/2012 7:49:53 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: soupbone1

Do you know which state did that? Please list.


11 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:27 PM PDT by Fee
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The homosexual statistician was on the Daily Show yesterday trying to plug his new book. He knows has to do it now because once Obama is gone, so will his credibility.


12 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:30 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: soupbone1

None. This law is not effect for two reasons.

1. Not enough states have approved the law. If the did it would favor RR because three of the States are California, Ilinois, and Maryland.

2. They may face a constituitonal challenged, which is not clearcut, because state compacts require, per the constitution, approval from Congress. However, the Constituiton allows state to assign electors however they want.


13 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:42 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Problem for Nate is the state polls lag behind the National polls. So the state polls should fall in line next 10 days.

So when both the National and the State polls swing against Nate’s opinions, where then is he going to run and hide?


14 posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:42 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Fee

Nebraska and Maine are the only ones in effect for this election.


15 posted on 10/19/2012 7:52:33 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: radpolis

The New York Times... Now why would I believe anything they say? Come to think of it, I don’t believe anything they say. They are nothing but liberal waste. As a matter of fact, I’m not believing anybody’s poll from now to Nov 6th. I will trust the anger that I feel instead. Screw the polls.


16 posted on 10/19/2012 7:54:25 PM PDT by lwoodham (I am Andrew Breitbart. Don't doubt me on this.)
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To: radpolis
However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Circular logic.

17 posted on 10/19/2012 7:54:58 PM PDT by matt1234 (As Obama sowed in the Arab Spring, so he is reaping in the Arab Fall.)
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To: MeanGreen2008
The two most accurate pollsters in 2008 were Pew and Rasmussen. Pew had likely voters 49% R, 45% O after the first debate. Rasmussen has it tied at 48% today.

Gallup has been polling presidential elections since FDR.

Do you weight these polls more heavily, or the same as a poll by an ex-Catholic college in Poughkeepsie NY using questionable methodology? (Silver seems to be weighing results from Poughkeepsie more heavily.)

18 posted on 10/19/2012 7:55:43 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Arthurio

I remember that well. Few places reported Zogby because his polling did not conform to the image the media wanted to create. Rush Limbaugh was one of the few who ever mentioned Zogby.


19 posted on 10/19/2012 8:00:52 PM PDT by Dan in Wichita
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To: radpolis

Nate Silver is wrong and Gallup is correct.

It predicted Obama’s win down to the final point on Oct 18th, 2008.

He can’t dismiss it simply because it shows a result he doesn’t like. I think Mitt Romney holds a very strong lead. Other pollsters just don’t want to come out and say it.

Every one knows Romney is going to win this election and it won’t be a close one at all.


20 posted on 10/19/2012 8:02:33 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: radpolis

The poor communists. They just can’t get their heads around the fact that freedom lovers are rejecting them once again. LOL! They’ll get over it. There’s a “utopia” for them somewhere. It’s just not on THIS planet.


21 posted on 10/19/2012 8:02:55 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (This is America! Being dead is no excuse not to vote!!!)
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To: radpolis

With two exceptions, they’ve always picked the winner, back to FDR: http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx


22 posted on 10/19/2012 8:03:37 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: fortheDeclaration

Many are oversampling registered voters while Gallup is doing likely voters.

Pray for America


23 posted on 10/19/2012 8:06:05 PM PDT by bray (Islam- A billion medieval savages can't be wrong!)
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To: MNJohnnie

NE and ME assign their electors by congressional district, then 2 for the state, not according to the national popular vote at all.


24 posted on 10/19/2012 8:07:15 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: radpolis; All

Nate Silver ragging on Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster of 2008:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/27/1137007/-Nate-Silver-Nugget-Rasmussen-was-the-worst-of-the-lot


25 posted on 10/19/2012 8:10:11 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: radpolis
Nate Silver is deeply disappointed with the Gallup poll.


26 posted on 10/19/2012 8:11:18 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: goldstategop

Look Nate Silver in 2010 ended up predicting the election in most cases but what is hard to find in writing, but I remember, is he changed his October 31st final stats by about a third. Before that he spewed the same crap he is spewing now that promotes his liberal roots being the son of a MSU liberal professor and a mom who is a nut liberal.


27 posted on 10/19/2012 8:15:00 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: mrsmith

First, we are past the point of even watching national polls. They mean nothing at this point. This election is down to 4-6 states.

Secondly, watch the campaigns and what they are doing and where they are going. They both have much better polling and other tracking tools about the state of the race.

Suffolk said a week ago, that VA, NC, and FL were all in Romney’s corner, so they were moving to other states. Now we see that being played out in NC. And the polls in VA and FL are trending pretty strongly Romney.

Of course Obama can’t come out and say they are giving up on FL or VA (or even NC). Because that would cause massive panic in their organizations and with the voters. But the media and the close insiders know what is going on.

To me, they are spending most of their time in OH. Seems to be political ground zero for both campaigns.


28 posted on 10/19/2012 8:18:12 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: radpolis

Polls aren’t the only measure of how a race is going. Look at other factors.

Suffolk polling pulled out of FL, VA, and NC a week or two ago. Romney has pulled resources out of NC.

State polls show a close race in traditionally Dem states like WI, PA, MI and IA. NH and OH also show close races. Romney is ahead in CO.

Romney is absolutely killing in traditionally conservative states, so it’s not hard to believe that nationally his numbers would be strong.

Maybe he’s not leading by 6 or 7 points nationally, but 3 to 4 points wouldn’t be hard to believe and that would be enough for him to win the electoral college, IMO.


29 posted on 10/19/2012 8:23:53 PM PDT by randita
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To: Fee

I’m not sure. I know Washington State pledges their electoral votes to the popular winner, but I don’t know if that includes having to win the state. From an article in the Olympian they talk of a compact of states which includes Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey. How this plays out this election cycle has got me a little interested.


30 posted on 10/19/2012 8:28:15 PM PDT by soupbone1
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To: crosslink

Memo to the clueless moron Nate Silver:

Its the white men, stupid!


31 posted on 10/19/2012 8:33:13 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Perdogg
That's true. Your point 2 is interesting because it raises the question of what happens if the compacting states reach 270 and they try to enforce it, and one state gets cold feet and reneges.

The States have the power to allocate their electoral college votes as they wish, but they don't have the power to compel another state in a compact that Congress did not approve.

-PJ

32 posted on 10/19/2012 8:35:47 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: gswilder

Paul Ryan is head to PA. It is in play.


33 posted on 10/19/2012 8:46:51 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: gswilder

Paul Ryan is head to PA. It is in play.


34 posted on 10/19/2012 8:46:51 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: radpolis

“However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race”

Maybe Nate forgot to read the recent UPI and KOS/PPP polls also showing a significant Romney lead.


35 posted on 10/19/2012 8:50:53 PM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: goldstategop
Last week I was polled by Quinnipiac. Although the poll was mainly concerned with NY matters it did ask "if the election were held today.......etc.
now the person who asked the questions on this poll was unmistakably African-American which raises the question-how many white Romney voters felt comfortable telling her their true voting preferences (like me)?
36 posted on 10/19/2012 8:55:37 PM PDT by Larry381 ("Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.")
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To: radpolis

It is interesting that Gallup is so different than the others. I think it’s because they are not weighting their samples, but letting their likely voter screen drive the results. It seems many of the polls are weighting the samples. I think Rasmussen is weighting it +4 Dem.

One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?


37 posted on 10/19/2012 8:55:46 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: radpolis

dang..the lib media going in on Gallup. I assume Gallup is gonna fall back in line soon.


38 posted on 10/19/2012 8:58:10 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: TomEwall
One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?

One main reason was because Zero had a substantial lead among women-which appears to not be the case anymore.

39 posted on 10/19/2012 9:00:12 PM PDT by Larry381 ("Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.")
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To: radpolis

I wonder if the Obama campaign is still sharing their internal polling with him


40 posted on 10/19/2012 9:11:43 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: crosslink

Nate mentioned 60 seats were possible but couldn’t bring himself to embrace that number and settled for a 50 something final estimate.

Charlie Cook was predicting 60 seats.
So was Mark Halprin.

2010 tarnished the golden boy’s crystal ball.


41 posted on 10/19/2012 9:19:07 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: bray

Yes, as the election draws near, that is the sample that matters and it will show the real poll numbers.


42 posted on 10/19/2012 10:08:58 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: crosslink; radpolis
My recollection was that in 2010 Rasmussen called the historical Republican takeover of congress correctly, but got the margin wrong on some races, particularly in the West. If the worst thing a pollster ever does is get a few races in an off-year election incorrect, I still think that's pretty good. The bottom line is that Rasmussen was still right, and Pelosi appeared to be shocked that she needed to move out of her office.

In effect, Silver is picking off all the poll results he doesn't like, while blowing off all the methodological problems with the ones that he does like. What was it that Mark Twain quoted of Benjamin Disraeli? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The general thought holds for statisticians, too. Wearing a white lab coat doesn't turn anyone into a scientist.

43 posted on 10/20/2012 4:08:25 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Sooth2222

http://news.yahoo.com/other-polls-show-tight-race-gallup-stands-apart-020811767.html

The liberal press will doubt and downplay any poll that does not show their savior leading. They had better get used to saying President Romney.


44 posted on 10/20/2012 9:23:40 PM PDT by NKP_Vet
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